The Politics of Science in International Climate Cooperation

国际气候合作中的科学政治

• 批准号: ES/W001373/2
• 负责人: Patrick Bayer
• 金额: $ 36.19万
• 依托单位: University of Glasgow
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FW001373%2F2
• 关键词: Politics; Science; International; Climate; Cooperation

International climate talks in Katowice, Poland, in 2018 descended into acrimony over a scientific landmark report by the most authoritative international body on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia, and the United States--four big oil and gas producers--refused to endorse an IPCC special report. This report stated that limiting global warming to 1.5C reduces climate-related risks, but requires deep emission reductions in all sectors. Since these reductions are costly, governments may have political incentives to try to influence how these reports are written and used. We study how and under what conditions governments seek to influence the production of science in the IPCC; and the effects of this attempted influence on climate negotiations and domestic climate policymaking.Our research comes at a vital moment for international climate politics. In order to meet the 1.5C-2C temperature target agreed in the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries need to increase their climate action. As the pressure to decarbonise the global economy mounts, the IPCC's forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 will provide states with the latest knowledge on the scientific basis; impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; and mitigation of climate change. The key findings from this comprehensive assessment will serve as scientific input to United Nations climate negotiations and guide governments' climate policies for the decade to come. Despite its key role, the IPCC's 6-8 year assessment cycles have come under repeated criticism for different reasons. Our systematic study of countries' engagement with IPCC processes will hence contribute to the practical and scholarly discussion on how the IPCC can best fulfil its mandate of being policy-relevant in the new climate landscape the Paris Agreement has created.In this unique context, we will offer new theoretical and empirical insights into the strategies, conditions, and effects of attempted government influence in international climate science policy. The theoretical framework, which we will develop, will allow us to analyse governments' strategic involvement in the production of IPCC reports and their uptake in climate policymaking. While "interference" and "obstruction" at both stages is documented in the literature, our framework will help us to hypothesise how, when, and with what effects governments seek influence in the global climate science-policy interface. Our systematic empirical analysis will benefit from a mixed methods approach. We will combine qualitative and quantitative methods, including elite interviews; participant observation; comparative case studies; document analysis; regression models; and text-as-data approaches. This multifaceted approach will enrich our empirical understanding of government influence in the IPCC and will help us to overcome the methodological challenge that government influence is not always readily observable.Together with our advisory board, which includes senior IPCC leadership and assessment authors, and through partnerships with leading climate research institutes--CICERO (Center for International Climate Research) in Norway; PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in Germany; Cardiff University's Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST); and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK--we intend to create impact from translating our research findings into feasible and implementable proposals to inform ongoing discussions about IPCC reform. We will furthermore present our findings at the United Nations climate conference in winter 2023 and, over the course of the project, disseminate our research to a wider audience through blog posts, podcasts, and on social media.

2018年，在波兰卡托维奇举行的国际气候会谈因最佳权威国际气候科学机构，政府间气候变化小组（IPCC）而引起了巨大的攻击。沙特阿拉伯，科威特，俄罗斯和美国 - 四个大石油和天然气生产商 - 供应认可IPCC特别报告。该报告指出，将全球变暖限制为1.5C可降低与气候相关的风险，但需要大量减少所有部门的排放。由于这些减少是昂贵的，因此政府可能有政治​​激励措施试图影响这些报告的书面和使用方式。我们研究政府如何以及在什么条件下如何影响IPCC中科学的生产；这种尝试影响对气候谈判和国内气候政策制定的影响。我们的研究是国际气候政治的重要时刻。为了满足2015年巴黎协定中商定的1.5C-2C温度目标，各国需要增加其气候行动。随着全球经济脱碳的压力，IPCC即将在2022年即将发表的第六次评估报告将为各州提供科学知识的最新知识；影响，适应和脆弱性；和缓解气候变化。这项全面评估的主要发现将是联合国气候谈判的科学意见，并指导政府在未来十年的气候政策。尽管它具有关键作用，但IPCC的6 - 8年评估周期因不同的原因而被一再受到批评。因此，我们对国家与IPCC流程的参与的系统研究将有助于实用和学术讨论，即IPCC如何最好地履行其在巴黎协议的新气候景观中与政策相关的任务。在这一独特的环境中，我们将在这一独特的环境中提供新的理论和经验性的见解，以对策略，条件，企图的政府政府影响国际科学的影响。我们将开发的理论框架将使我们能够分析政府参与IPCC报告的生产及其在气候决策中的吸收。尽管文献中记录了两个阶段的“干扰”和“阻塞”，但我们的框架将有助于我们假设政府在全球气候科学政策界面中寻求影响的何时，何时以及如何影响。我们系统的经验分析将受益于混合方法方法。我们将结合定性和定量方法，包括精英访谈；参与者观察；比较案例研究；文档分析；回归模型；和文本符合数据的方法。这种多方面的方法将丰富我们对政府在IPCC中的影响的经验理解，并将帮助我们克服方法论上的挑战，即政府影响力并非总是可以观察到的。与我们的顾问委员会（包括IPCC领导力和评估作者）以及通过与领先的气候研究机构（国际环境研究中心）在Norway In Norway In Norway In Impartimate Research Insterips的合作伙伴关系的咨询委员会。德国Pik（Potsdam气候影响研究研究所）；加的夫大学气候变化与社会转型中心（CAST）；以及英国廷德尔气候变化研究中心 - 我们打算从将我们的研究结果转化为可行且可实施的建议，以告知有关IPCC改革的持续讨论。我们将在2023年冬季的联合国气候会议上提出我们的发现，并在项目过程中，通过博客文章，播客和社交媒体将我们的研究传播给更广泛的受众。