The Politics of Science in International Climate Cooperation

2018年在波兰卡托维兹举行的国际气候谈判因气候科学最权威的国际机构--政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的一份具有科学里程碑意义的报告而陷入激烈争论。沙特阿拉伯、科威特、俄罗斯和美国--四大石油和天然气生产国--拒绝支持IPCC的一份特别报告。这份报告指出，将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以下可以减少与气候有关的风险，但需要在所有部门大幅减排。由于这些削减代价高昂，各国政府可能会有政治动机，试图影响这些报告的撰写和使用方式。我们研究了政府如何以及在什么条件下寻求影响政府间气候变化专门委员会的科学成果；以及这种企图影响气候谈判和国内气候政策制定的影响。我们的研究正值国际气候政治的关键时刻。为了实现2015年《巴黎协定》中商定的1.5摄氏度-2摄氏度的温度目标，各国需要加大气候行动力度。随着全球经济脱碳压力的加大，政府间气候变化专门委员会即将于2022年发布的第六次评估报告将为各国提供有关科学基础、影响、适应和脆弱性以及缓解气候变化的最新知识。这项全面评估的主要结果将作为联合国气候谈判的科学投入，并指导各国政府未来十年的气候政策。尽管IPCC扮演着关键角色，但由于各种原因，IPCC的6-8年评估周期一再受到批评。因此，我们对各国参与IPCC进程的系统研究将有助于就IPCC如何在《巴黎协定》创造的新气候格局中最好地履行其与政策相关的任务进行实际和学术讨论。在这一独特的背景下，我们将对政府试图影响国际气候科学政策的战略、条件和影响提供新的理论和实证见解。我们将开发的理论框架将使我们能够分析各国政府在编制气专委报告方面的战略参与及其在气候政策制定中的应用。虽然文献中记录了这两个阶段的“干预”和“阻碍”，但我们的框架将帮助我们假设政府如何、何时以及以什么效果在全球气候科学-政策界面上寻求影响。我们的系统实证分析将受益于混合方法方法。我们将结合定性和定量的方法，包括精英访谈、参与者观察、比较案例研究、文件分析、回归模型和文本数据方法。这种多方面的方法将丰富我们对政府在IPCC中的影响的实证理解，并将帮助我们克服政府影响并不总是容易观察到的方法挑战。我们打算与我们的顾问委员会(包括IPCC的高级领导层和评估作者)一起，并通过与领先的气候研究机构--挪威的Cicero(国际气候研究中心)、德国的波茨坦气候影响研究所(PIK)、加的夫大学的气候变化和社会变化中心(CAST)以及英国的廷德尔气候变化研究中心--合作，通过将我们的研究成果转化为可行和可执行的建议来产生影响，为正在进行的关于IPCC改革的讨论提供参考。我们还将在2023年冬季联合国气候大会上公布我们的研究结果，并在项目过程中，通过博客帖子、播客和社交媒体向更广泛的受众传播我们的研究成果。

International climate talks in Katowice, Poland, in 2018 descended into acrimony over a scientific landmark report by the most authoritative international body on climate science, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Russia, and the United States--four big oil and gas producers--refused to endorse an IPCC special report. This report stated that limiting global warming to 1.5C reduces climate-related risks, but requires deep emission reductions in all sectors. Since these reductions are costly, governments may have political incentives to try to influence how these reports are written and used. We study how and under what conditions governments seek to influence the production of science in the IPCC; and the effects of this attempted influence on climate negotiations and domestic climate policymaking.Our research comes at a vital moment for international climate politics. In order to meet the 1.5C-2C temperature target agreed in the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries need to increase their climate action. As the pressure to decarbonise the global economy mounts, the IPCC's forthcoming Sixth Assessment Report in 2022 will provide states with the latest knowledge on the scientific basis; impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability; and mitigation of climate change. The key findings from this comprehensive assessment will serve as scientific input to United Nations climate negotiations and guide governments' climate policies for the decade to come. Despite its key role, the IPCC's 6-8 year assessment cycles have come under repeated criticism for different reasons. Our systematic study of countries' engagement with IPCC processes will hence contribute to the practical and scholarly discussion on how the IPCC can best fulfil its mandate of being policy-relevant in the new climate landscape the Paris Agreement has created.In this unique context, we will offer new theoretical and empirical insights into the strategies, conditions, and effects of attempted government influence in international climate science policy. The theoretical framework, which we will develop, will allow us to analyse governments' strategic involvement in the production of IPCC reports and their uptake in climate policymaking. While "interference" and "obstruction" at both stages is documented in the literature, our framework will help us to hypothesise how, when, and with what effects governments seek influence in the global climate science-policy interface. Our systematic empirical analysis will benefit from a mixed methods approach. We will combine qualitative and quantitative methods, including elite interviews; participant observation; comparative case studies; document analysis; regression models; and text-as-data approaches. This multifaceted approach will enrich our empirical understanding of government influence in the IPCC and will help us to overcome the methodological challenge that government influence is not always readily observable.Together with our advisory board, which includes senior IPCC leadership and assessment authors, and through partnerships with leading climate research institutes--CICERO (Center for International Climate Research) in Norway; PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) in Germany; Cardiff University's Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST); and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the UK--we intend to create impact from translating our research findings into feasible and implementable proposals to inform ongoing discussions about IPCC reform. We will furthermore present our findings at the United Nations climate conference in winter 2023 and, over the course of the project, disseminate our research to a wider audience through blog posts, podcasts, and on social media.