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Uncertainty Evaluation and Mitigation in Electric Power Systems

电力系统的不确定性评估和缓解

基本信息

批准号：
0725589
负责人：
Sandip Roy
金额：
$ 10.92万
依托单位：
Washington State University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2007
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2007-08-15 至 2011-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0725589&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Uncertainty Evaluation Mitigation Electric Power

项目摘要

The objective of this research is to develop computationallyefficient methods for evaluating the global impact of parametricuncertainties on power flow solutions and the dynamic performance ofelectrical power systems. The approach is to integrate two promisingtools, the probabilistic collocation method and trajectorysensitivity-based methods. These tools permit the selection of asparse set of simulations from which a mapping between uncertainparameters and the output(s) of interest can be found. The mappingscan be used to study the effects of critical uncertainties, and totune parameters to mitigate those effects.Intellectual Merit:The intellectual merit of the project lies in the study ofmethodologies that permit uncertainty evaluation for large dynamicmodels of electric power systems. The project will developtechniques for selecting a sparse set of simulations that enableperformance evaluation over the domain of possible parameter values.Investigations of trajectory sensitivities will seek to establish afundamental understanding of the influence of dynamic models onuncertainty propagation. Insights into the role played by thenetwork structure will be provided, and tools that exploit thatstructure developed.Broader Impact:Utilities use simulation-based evaluation of system behavior to makedecisions that have tremendous economic and reliabilityimplications. The parameters of many models are, however, quiteuncertain. The techniques developed in this project will allowefficient assessment of such uncertainty. The risk of largedisturbances will be reduced accordingly. Given the wideapplicability of the developed methods to general large-scalesystems, the project will stimulate diverse educationalopportunities.

这项研究的目的是开发计算高效的方法来评估参数不确定性对电力系统潮流解和动态性能的全局影响。该方法是将概率配置法和基于轨迹敏感度的方法这两种有希望的工具相结合。这些工具允许选择一组模拟，从中可以找到不确定参数和感兴趣的输出(S)之间的映射。该映射可用于研究关键不确定性的影响，并调整参数以减轻这些影响。智力价值：该项目的智力价值在于研究了允许对电力系统大型动态模型进行不确定性评估的方法。该项目将开发选择一组稀疏模拟的技术，从而能够在可能的参数值范围内进行性能评估。对弹道敏感性的调查将寻求建立对动态模型对不确定性传播的影响的基本理解。将提供对网络结构所扮演的角色的见解，并开发利用该结构的工具。广泛的影响：公用事业公司使用基于模拟的系统行为评估来做出具有巨大经济和可靠性影响的决策。然而，许多模型的参数都是不确定的。在这个项目中开发的技术将能够有效地评估这种不确定性。大骚乱的风险将相应降低。鉴于所开发的方法广泛适用于一般的大型系统，该项目将刺激不同的教育机会。