Uncertainty Evaluation and Mitigation in Electric Power Systems

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The objective of this research is to develop computationallyefficient methods for evaluating the global impact of parametricuncertainties on power flow solutions and the dynamic performance ofelectrical power systems. The approach is to integrate two promisingtools, the probabilistic collocation method and trajectorysensitivity-based methods. These tools permit the selection of asparse set of simulations from which a mapping between uncertainparameters and the output(s) of interest can be found. The mappingscan be used to study the effects of critical uncertainties, and totune parameters to mitigate those effects.Intellectual Merit:The intellectual merit of the project lies in the study ofmethodologies that permit uncertainty evaluation for large dynamicmodels of electric power systems. The project will developtechniques for selecting a sparse set of simulations that enableperformance evaluation over the domain of possible parameter values.Investigations of trajectory sensitivities will seek to establish afundamental understanding of the influence of dynamic models onuncertainty propagation. Insights into the role played by thenetwork structure will be provided, and tools that exploit thatstructure developed.Broader Impact:Utilities use simulation-based evaluation of system behavior to makedecisions that have tremendous economic and reliabilityimplications. The parameters of many models are, however, quiteuncertain. The techniques developed in this project will allowefficient assessment of such uncertainty. The risk of largedisturbances will be reduced accordingly. Given the wideapplicability of the developed methods to general large-scalesystems, the project will stimulate diverse educationalopportunities.