SGER: Econometric Models for Impacts of Technology in Healthcare

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Healthcare is a major component of the U.S. economy, and tremendous research and development efforts are directed toward new technologies in this arena. Unfortunately, few tools exist for predicting the economic impact of new products, including (1) the nature of the marketplace at the time new technologies are ready to be deployed and (2) the systemic implications of new technology within the healthcare system overall. In this project, we develop new econometric models for assessing impacts of technology, particularly wireless sensing technology, in healthcare. We hypothesize that the health care sector overall can be modeled as a loosely confederated set of participants (agents) that arrive at equilibrium points in terms of the acceptance and degree of use of particular technologies. For example, insurers clearly see things differently than doctors, while technology suppliers, patients, and regulatory bodies all have different perspectives on risks and opportunities for new technology, yet, in the end, a balance is achieved based on the implicit integration of value systems. Our goal is to develop econometric models that characterize this balance as a function of capabilities provided by new technology.This research will produce new econometric models for determining (1) the potential economic value of new technologies, especially wireless sensing technologies, and (2) the critical economic factors that might either expedite, delay or limit the acceptance of new technologies in actual use. We will explore modeling issues, challenges, and opportunities in two case studies, one relating to wireless motion capture devices assessing the physiological state of Parkinson's patients, and the other for assessing the role of Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) in Type 1 diabetics.