Collaborative Research: Downscaling global climate projections to the ecosystems of the Bering Sea with nested biophysical models

合作研究：利用嵌套生物物理模型将全球气候预测缩小到白令海生态系统

• 批准号: 0732431
• 负责人: Enrique Curchitser
• 金额: $ 20.6万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2007-09-15 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0732431&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Downscaling; global; climate

Funds are provided to model the physics and ecosystem structure of the Bering Sea. Change in climate forcing will be determined from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) simulations made for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The twentieth century hindcasts from these models differ in terms of their ability to replicate past observed conditions; a subset of the better models will be used to project the trends, variability and uncertainty of the climate of the Bering Sea through the first half of the 21st century. This ensemble of GCM model results will be used primarily for dynamical downscaling, i.e., as initial and boundary conditions for high-resolution ocean model experiments with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The ROMS simulations are designed to properly handle physical processes known to be important on the Bering Sea shelf, such as sea ice, tides, and cross-shelf exchange; these results will form the direct input for embedded spatially-explicit nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) and food web model experiments. This project is part of a larger program designed to develop understanding of the integrated ecosystem of the eastern Bering Sea shelf, a highly productive region of US coastal waters. This ecosystem is home to a major portion of the commercial fisheries of the US and also provides significant resources to subsistence hunters and fisherman of Alaska. The model will help to synthesize our current and developing understanding of how this system functions.

提供资金来对白令海的物理和生态系统结构进行建模。 气候强迫的变化将由耦合大气 - 海洋通用循环模型（GCM）模拟确定，该模拟是针对气候变化间委员会（IPCC）第四次评估报告（AR4）进行的。 这些模型的20世纪后广播在复制过去观察到的条件的能力方面有所不同。在21世纪上半叶，将使用更好模型的子集来投射潮汐气候的趋势，变异性和不确定性。 GCM模型结果的这种合奏将主要用于动态降压，即作为区域海洋建模系统（ROM）的高分辨率海洋模型实验的初始和边界条件。 ROM模拟旨在正确处理已知在白令海架上很重要的物理过程，例如海冰，潮汐和跨架子交换；这些结果将构成嵌入式空间解释的养分 - 芬克顿 - Zooplankton（NPZ）和食品Web模型实验的直接输入。该项目是一个较大计划的一部分，旨在发展对美国沿海水域高效地区东部白令海货架综合生态系统的理解。 该生态系统是美国商业渔业的主要部分的所在地，还为阿拉斯加的生存猎人和渔民提供了大量资源。 该模型将有助于综合我们当前的系统，并发展对该系统如何运作的理解。