Type 2: A CRI-EaSM Collaborative proposal: Climate-to-humans: A study of urbanized coastal environments, their economics and vulnerability to climate change

将开发一个统一的框架，用于研究地球系统中的全球变化，允许尺度相互作用（上/下尺度）和子组件之间明确建模的动态反馈。研究小组将建立一个结合多尺度海洋、大气、流域、生物地球化学和人类系统模型的地球系统模型（EaSM）。以生物经济和社会网络模型表示的耦合环境和人类系统的预估变率将用于研究影响未来可持续做法和地球系统长期演变的管理和其他社会经济决策。这项研究的目标是美国东北部，这是一个高度城市化和人口密集的地区，约有33%的美国人口拥有世界上最大的经济体之一。这也是一个易受全球变化影响的地区，经历了重大的气候和生态系统变化，土地利用的转移，以及对北半球气候具有重大影响的复杂的西部边界洋流海洋制度。由于许多全球变化问题可归因于人为干扰（例如，气候变暖、生态系统压力、生物多样性下降），自然环境与人类系统的界面是本项目的核心。智力优势：该项目将利用过去20年的学科和计算发展来组装、测试和使用地球系统模型。提出的模型源于这样一种认识，即人类及其政治、经济和社会结构是与气候和生态系统动态相互作用的地球系统的一个组成部分。因此，提出的模式的最终目标是能够研究当前和未来的气候和生态系统，同时考虑到物理强迫和人为强迫以及相关的人类决策结构。为此，本项目旨在通过实施一种允许物理和生物地球化学中的多尺度相互作用的策略来提高当代气候模型的技能，改进模型中已知的偏差，并在必要时改进物理和生态系统的维度表示（例如，陆海边界）。更广泛的影响：该项目旨在开发可用于研究和解决人类面临的一些最大的长期挑战的工具，即气候变化和有限的自然资源。它首先通过解决全球气候模型中已知的缺陷来实现这一目标，其次通过开发一个包括经济和人类对气候系统影响的模型来实现这一目标。这项研究的目标区域是美国东北部和邻近的沿海海域。这是一个人口规模和经济活动巨大的地区，特别容易受到气候变化的影响。然而，所提出的地球系统模型的所有组成部分都可以在任何感兴趣的区域实现。由此产生的模型既可以供科学家用于研究目的，也可以作为决策支持工具提供给决策者。模型开发的框架是基于社区的ncar -社区气候系统模型。因此，所有开发都成为具有重要技术支持、教育和外联基础设施的科学界知识库的一部分。建议的一个重要的扩展活动是为科学家和政策人员举办一个研讨会，其主要目标是通过实践教程和在此工作中开发的特定示例向模型的潜在用户传授其功能。本提案还将支持学生和博士后在工作的各个阶段。最后，这项工作将通常不合作的科学界聚集在一起。由于气候变化、人口增长和资源限制，社会面临的挑战是多方面的，它将采取跨学科的方法来研究、缓解和解决这些挑战。可以说，这项工作的最大影响是聚集了具有不同兴趣和学科的科学家，准备为共同的目标而努力。

A unified framework for studying global change in the Earth System allowing for scale interactions (up/down-scaling) and explicitly modeled dynamic feedbacks between the sub-components will be developed. The investigator team will build an Earth System Model (EaSM) that couples multi-scale ocean, atmosphere, watershed, biogeochemistry and human system models. The projected variability of the coupled environmental and human systems, represented with bio-economic and social network models, will be used to study management and other socio-economic decisions affecting future sustainable practices and the long-term evolution of the Earth System. The target for this study is the northeast U.S., a highly urbanized and densely populated region with approximately 33% of the US population hosting one the world's largest economies. It is also a region where vulnerability to global change is heightened, experiencing significant climate and ecosystem changes, shifting land use, and a complex western boundary current oceanic regime with significant implications to the northern hemisphere climate. Since many of the global change issues can be attributed to anthropogenic perturbations (e.g., a warming climate, ecosystem stress, declining biodiversity) the interface of the physical environment with human systems is central to this project.Intellectual merit: This project will use disciplinary and computational developments of the last 20 years to assemble, test and use an Earth System Model. The proposed model emerges from the realization that humans and their political, economic and social structures are an integral part of the Earth System dynamically interacting with its climate and ecosystems. Therefore, the ultimate goal of the proposed model is to be able to study present and future climate and ecosystems, accounting for both physical and anthropogenic forcings and the relevant human decision-making structures. To that end, this project aims to increase the skill of contemporary climate models by implementing a strategy that permits multi-scale interactions in the physics and biogeochemistry, improving upon known biases in the models and where necessary improve the dimensional representation of the physics and the ecosystems (e.g., the land-sea boundary). Broader impacts: The project aims to develop tools that can be used to study and address some of the biggest long-term challenges facing humans namely, a changing climate and limited natural resources. It achieves this first, by addressing known deficiencies in global climate model and second, by developing a model that includes economics and the human impact on the climate system. The target region for the study is the northeast U.S. and adjacent coastal ocean. This is a region with a significant population size and economic activity, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. However, all the components of the proposed Earth System Model can be implemented in any region of interest. The resulting model will be available both to scientists for research purposes and to policy makers as a decision support tool. The framework for the model development is the community-based NCAR-Community Climate System Model. As such all development becomes part of the scientific community repository with significant technical support, education and outreach infrastructure. A significant outreach activity proposed is to hold a workshop for scientists and policy people with the main goal of teaching potential users of the model its capabilities with hands on tutorials, and particular examples developed during this work. This proposal will also support students and post-doctoral fellows during various stages of the work.Finally, this work brings together scientific communities that do not typically work together. The challenges facing society due to a changing climate, population growth and resource limitations are multi-faceted and it will take an interdisciplinary approach to study, mitigate and solve them. Arguably, the biggest impact of this work is the assembly of scientists with varied interests and disciplines ready to work towards a common goal.