Collaborative Research: Regional Variability in Future Temperature Stress to Coral Reefs in the Coral Triangle

该项目的主要目的是测试导致珊瑚三角珊瑚漂白的区域差异的海洋条件，并确定这些条件的变化将如何影响21世纪的珊瑚漂白模式。由于珊瑚漂白的增加，珊瑚礁生态系统的退化在过去几十年中加速。然而，关于珊瑚礁在未来白化条件下的脆弱性，仍然存在许多不确定因素。这项研究将纳入一个高分辨率海洋模型，以模拟促进珊瑚白化的环流和温度模式，同时考虑到珊瑚礁对温度压力的暴露以及这些珊瑚礁对白化的敏感性及其适应温度变化的能力。对珊瑚三角的关注很重要，因为1)它支持高度的海洋生物多样性；2)复杂的水深测量和海洋环流可能提供对影响珊瑚礁易受气温上升影响的当前和未来条件的重要见解；3)将气候和区域环流模型联系起来的最新发展现在可以解决这一地区的复杂海洋学问题。将使用为珊瑚三角开发的区域海洋模拟系统(CT-ROMS)来研究气候变化对珊瑚三角的温度和环流模式的影响。建模将包括几次21世纪的运行，使用为政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)评估报告开发的情景进行气候模型预测。考虑到热压力的不同测量和珊瑚对这种压力的敏感性的多种漂白算法将被评估它们模拟观察到的漂白模式的能力。然后，最好地捕捉观察到的漂白模式的算法将被用于在21世纪的整合中预测漂白。这将是第一个综合利用高分辨率模拟来评估1)决定珊瑚漂白区域变异性的海洋条件，以及2)海洋变化将如何影响未来珊瑚漂白模式的项目。我们将能够评估不仅是表面的珊瑚礁而且是深海的珊瑚礁易受白化的脆弱性，从而确定是否应该考虑将较深水域的珊瑚礁作为未来保护工作的地点。该项目还将更全面地了解珊瑚礁三角区的珊瑚礁脆弱性，并提高我们识别珊瑚礁避难所的能力，这是海洋保护区设计和管理的基石。与自然保护协会合作，这项工作将有助于珊瑚三角倡议项目支助小组的努力，既最大限度地将科学成果应用于MPA设计，并提高当地渔业及其社区适应气候变化对其海洋资源的影响的能力。

The primary aim of this project is to test the oceanographic conditions that lead to regional differences in coral bleaching across the Coral Triangle, and to determine how changes in these conditions will influence coral bleaching patterns in the 21st Century. Degradation of coral reef ecosystems has accelerated over the past few decades due to increases in coral bleaching. Many uncertainties remain, however, regarding coral reef vulnerability to future bleaching conditions. This research will incorporate a high-resolution oceanographic model to simulate circulation and temperature patterns that promote coral bleaching, taking into account both the exposure of coral reefs to temperature stress as well as the sensitivity of those reefs to bleaching and their capacity to adapt to the temperature changes. The focus on the Coral Triangle is important because 1) it supports high marine biodiversity; 2) the complex bathymetry and oceanographic circulation are likely to provide significant insights into present and future conditions that affect coral reef vulnerability to increasing temperature; and 3) recent developments linking climate and regional circulation models can now resolve the complex oceanography in this area. A Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the Coral Triangle (CT-ROMS) will be used to examine climate change effects on temperature and circulation patterns in the Coral Triangle. The modeling will include several 21st Century runs forced by climate model projections using scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. Multiple bleaching algorithms that take into account different measures of heat stress and coral sensitivity to that stress will be evaluated for their ability to simulate observed bleaching patterns. The algorithms that best capture observed bleaching patterns will then be used to project bleaching in the 21st Century integrations. This will be the first project to undertake a comprehensive use of high resolution modeling to evaluate 1) the oceanographic conditions that determine regional variability in coral bleaching, and 2) how oceanographic changes will influence coral bleaching patterns in the future. We will be able to evaluate vulnerability to bleaching not only for reefs at the surface but also at depth, thus identifying whether deeper-water reefs should be considered sites for future conservation efforts. This project will also provide a more complete picture of coral reef vulnerability in the Coral Triangle, and improve our ability to identify refugia for coral reefs, which is a cornerstone for Marine Protected Area (MPA) design and management. In collaboration with The Nature Conservancy, this work will contribute to efforts of the Coral Triangle Initiative Program Support Team to both maximize the application of the scientific results in MPA design, and improve the capacity of local fisheries and their communities to adapt to climate change impacts on their marine resources.