Collaborative Research: Regional Variability in Future Temperature Stress to Coral Reefs in the Coral Triangle

该项目的主要目的是测试导致珊瑚三角区珊瑚漂白区域差异的海洋条件，并确定这些条件的变化将如何影响21世纪世纪的珊瑚漂白模式。 过去几十年来，由于珊瑚白化现象增加，珊瑚礁生态系统的退化加速。然而，关于珊瑚礁对未来漂白条件的脆弱性，仍然存在许多不确定性。这项研究将采用一个高分辨率海洋学模型，模拟促使珊瑚白化的环流和温度模式，同时考虑到珊瑚礁受到温度压力的影响以及这些珊瑚礁对白化的敏感性及其适应温度变化的能力。 对珊瑚三角区的关注很重要，因为：（1）它支持高度的海洋生物多样性;（2）复杂的水深测量和海洋环流可能为了解影响珊瑚礁对温度升高的脆弱性的当前和未来条件提供重要见解;（3）最近将气候和区域环流模型联系起来的发展现在可以解决这一地区复杂的海洋学问题。 为珊瑚三角区开发的区域海洋模拟系统将用于研究气候变化对珊瑚三角区温度和环流模式的影响。建模将包括几个21世纪的运行，这些运行是由气候模型预测强制进行的，这些预测使用了为政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）评估报告开发的情景。考虑到热应力和珊瑚对该应力的敏感性的不同措施的多种漂白算法将评估其模拟观察到的漂白模式的能力。最好的算法，捕捉观察到的漂白模式，然后将用于项目漂白在21世纪的整合。这将是第一个全面使用高分辨率建模的项目，以评估1）确定珊瑚漂白区域变化的海洋条件，以及2）海洋变化如何影响未来的珊瑚漂白模式。我们将能够评估珊瑚礁不仅在表面而且在深度的漂白脆弱性，从而确定深水珊瑚礁是否应被视为未来养护工作的地点。该项目还将更全面地了解珊瑚三角区珊瑚礁的脆弱性，并提高我们确定珊瑚礁避难所的能力，这是海洋保护区设计和管理的基石。与大自然保护协会合作，这项工作将有助于珊瑚三角区倡议方案支持小组的努力，以最大限度地将科学成果应用于MPA设计，并提高当地渔业及其社区适应气候变化对其海洋资源影响的能力。

The primary aim of this project is to test the oceanographic conditions that lead to regional differences in coral bleaching across the Coral Triangle, and to determine how changes in these conditions will influence coral bleaching patterns in the 21st Century. Degradation of coral reef ecosystems has accelerated over the past few decades due to increases in coral bleaching. Many uncertainties remain, however, regarding coral reef vulnerability to future bleaching conditions. This research will incorporate a high-resolution oceanographic model to simulate circulation and temperature patterns that promote coral bleaching, taking into account both the exposure of coral reefs to temperature stress as well as the sensitivity of those reefs to bleaching and their capacity to adapt to the temperature changes. The focus on the Coral Triangle is important because 1) it supports high marine biodiversity; 2) the complex bathymetry and oceanographic circulation are likely to provide significant insights into present and future conditions that affect coral reef vulnerability to increasing temperature; and 3) recent developments linking climate and regional circulation models can now resolve the complex oceanography in this area. A Regional Ocean Modeling System developed for the Coral Triangle (CT-ROMS) will be used to examine climate change effects on temperature and circulation patterns in the Coral Triangle. The modeling will include several 21st Century runs forced by climate model projections using scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report. Multiple bleaching algorithms that take into account different measures of heat stress and coral sensitivity to that stress will be evaluated for their ability to simulate observed bleaching patterns. The algorithms that best capture observed bleaching patterns will then be used to project bleaching in the 21st Century integrations. This will be the first project to undertake a comprehensive use of high resolution modeling to evaluate 1) the oceanographic conditions that determine regional variability in coral bleaching, and 2) how oceanographic changes will influence coral bleaching patterns in the future. We will be able to evaluate vulnerability to bleaching not only for reefs at the surface but also at depth, thus identifying whether deeper-water reefs should be considered sites for future conservation efforts. This project will also provide a more complete picture of coral reef vulnerability in the Coral Triangle, and improve our ability to identify refugia for coral reefs, which is a cornerstone for Marine Protected Area (MPA) design and management. In collaboration with The Nature Conservancy, this work will contribute to efforts of the Coral Triangle Initiative Program Support Team to both maximize the application of the scientific results in MPA design, and improve the capacity of local fisheries and their communities to adapt to climate change impacts on their marine resources.