IPY: Understanding the Impacts of Icy Permafrost Degradation and Thermokarst-Lake Dynamics in the Arctic on Carbon Cycling, CO2 and CH4 emissions, and Feedbacks to Climate Change

这项研究整合了一系列学科的实地研究（地貌学、地球物理学、古生态学、水文学、湖沼学），对永久冻土融化、湖泊形成、碳循环和温室气体（GHG）排放进行过程建模，以了解北极永久冻土退化，特别是热岩溶湖（TKL）的演变，通过释放以二氧化碳（CO2）和甲烷（CH 4）形式储存在永久冻土中的古代碳（C），影响长期的大气痕量气体动力学。IPY/NSF征集的总体目标在短期内得到满足（2007-2009），通过（1）全面描述热岩溶状态（2）通过改变地表地貌和排水模式量化其对景观配置的影响;（3）通过增强温室气体排放估算其对碳循环的影响（CO2，CH 4）排放，（4）研究其影响全球气候的潜力？仅西伯利亚永久冻土融化释放的潜在碳就占目前大气碳负荷的50%。从长远来看，通过建立（1）永久冻土区的地理、地层和过程数据遗产以及热岩溶动力学数据，（过去、现在和未来），（2）热岩溶过程的工作模型，（3）热岩溶情景-从末次盛冰期（LGM）到2200年气候变化驱动的温室气体排放，以及（4）加强北极观测网络内在北西伯利亚（切尔斯基）和阿拉斯加（图里克湖）观测站的合作，并与布里斯托大学（英国）、阿尔弗雷德·韦格纳极地和海洋研究所和马克斯·普朗克微生物学研究所（均为德国）以及雅库茨克永久冻土研究所（俄罗斯）的国际合作者开展合作。

This research integrates field studies in a range of disciplines (geomorphology, geophysics, paleoecology, hydrology, limnology) with process modeling of permafrost thaw, lake formation, carbon cycling, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to understand how permafrost degradation in the Arctic, particularly thermokarst-lake (TKL) evolution, affects long-term atmospheric trace gas dynamics by releasing ancient carbon (C) stored in permafrost as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The overarching goals of the IPY/NSF solicitation are met in the short term (2007-2009), by (1) describing comprehensively the state of thermokarst (permafrost degradation) in Siberia and Alaska, (2) quantifying its impact on landscape configuration through the alteration of surface geomorphology and drainage patterns, (3) estimating its impacts on the C cycle via enhanced GHG (CO2, CH4) emissions, and (4) examining its potential to influence global climate ?potential C release from thawing permafrost in Siberia alone totals 50% of the current atmospheric C burden. The IPY goals are met in the long term by establishing (1) a legacy of geographic, stratigraphic and process data from permafrost regions and data on thermokarst dynamics (past, present and future), (2) a working model of thermokarst processes, (3) scenarios of thermokarst- GHG emissions driven by climate change from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the year 2200, and (4) an enhancement of collaborations within the Arctic Observing Network at observatories in North Siberia (Cherskii) and Alaska (Toolik Lake), and work with international collaborators at Bristol University (UK), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research and the Max Planck Institute for Microbiology (both Germany) and the Permafrost Institute, Yakutsk (Russia).