IPY: Understanding the Impacts of Icy Permafrost Degradation and Thermokarst-Lake Dynamics in the Arctic on Carbon Cycling, CO2 and CH4 emissions, and Feedbacks to Climate Change

本研究将地貌学、地球物理学、古生态学、水文学、湖沼学等学科的实地研究与多年冻土融化、湖泊形成、碳循环和温室气体（GHG）排放的过程模拟相结合，以了解北极永久冻土退化，特别是热岩溶湖（TKL）演化如何通过释放储存在永久冻土中的古碳(C)以二氧化碳（CO2）和甲烷（CH4）的形式影响长期大气微量气体动力学。通过(1)全面描述西伯利亚和阿拉斯加的热岩溶（永久冻土退化）状态，(2)通过地表地貌和排水模式的改变量化其对景观配置的影响，(3)通过增加温室气体（CO2, CH4）排放估计其对C循环的影响，以及(4)研究其影响全球气候的潜力，IPY/NSF征集的总体目标在短期内（2007-2009）得以实现。仅西伯利亚永久冻土融化可能释放的碳就占目前大气碳负担的50%。通过建立(1)多年冻土区的地理、地层和过程数据遗产以及热岩溶动力学数据（过去、现在和未来），(2)热岩溶过程的工作模式，(3)末次盛冰期至2200年气候变化驱动的热岩溶-温室气体排放情景，以实现国际极地年的长期目标。(4)加强在北西伯利亚（切尔斯基）和阿拉斯加（图里克湖）观测站的北极观测网络内的合作，并与布里斯托尔大学（英国）、阿尔弗雷德·韦格纳极地和海洋研究所、马克斯·普朗克微生物研究所（德国）和雅库茨克永久冻土带研究所（俄罗斯）的国际合作者合作。

This research integrates field studies in a range of disciplines (geomorphology, geophysics, paleoecology, hydrology, limnology) with process modeling of permafrost thaw, lake formation, carbon cycling, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to understand how permafrost degradation in the Arctic, particularly thermokarst-lake (TKL) evolution, affects long-term atmospheric trace gas dynamics by releasing ancient carbon (C) stored in permafrost as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The overarching goals of the IPY/NSF solicitation are met in the short term (2007-2009), by (1) describing comprehensively the state of thermokarst (permafrost degradation) in Siberia and Alaska, (2) quantifying its impact on landscape configuration through the alteration of surface geomorphology and drainage patterns, (3) estimating its impacts on the C cycle via enhanced GHG (CO2, CH4) emissions, and (4) examining its potential to influence global climate ?potential C release from thawing permafrost in Siberia alone totals 50% of the current atmospheric C burden. The IPY goals are met in the long term by establishing (1) a legacy of geographic, stratigraphic and process data from permafrost regions and data on thermokarst dynamics (past, present and future), (2) a working model of thermokarst processes, (3) scenarios of thermokarst- GHG emissions driven by climate change from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the year 2200, and (4) an enhancement of collaborations within the Arctic Observing Network at observatories in North Siberia (Cherskii) and Alaska (Toolik Lake), and work with international collaborators at Bristol University (UK), the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research and the Max Planck Institute for Microbiology (both Germany) and the Permafrost Institute, Yakutsk (Russia).