Collaborative Research: NNA Track 1: Global impacts and social implications of changing thermokarst lake environments near Yukon River Watershed communities

导航新北极（NNA）是美国国家科学基金会的十大构想之一。NNA项目解决快速变化的北极地区的融合科学挑战。北极研究需要为国家、更大地区和全球的经济、安全和复原力提供信息。NNA支持从地方到国际规模的新研究伙伴关系，使下一代北极研究人员多样化，加强正式和非正式教育的努力，并在适当情况下整合知识的共同生产。该奖项通过在以下NNA重点领域解决社会系统与自然环境之间的相互作用，实现了这一目标的一部分：北极居民、数据和观测、预测和全球影响。观测和模拟表明，地球正处于永久冻土突变的拐点上。在融化的永久冻土区新形成的湖泊中，甲烷排放的增加可能在全球气候中起着重要作用。永久冻土的减少和相关的景观变化日益使北极和全球社区面临风险。因此，迫切需要改进规划预测。该项目将阿拉斯加社区与社会和自然科学家聚集在一起，研究永久冻土融化湖环境的变化，包括对育空河流域村庄和全球气候的影响。育空河部落间流域委员会（YRITWC）确定了该项目的目标，重点关注湖区变化、饮用水质量和冰冻运输走廊——当地利益相关者认为这些主题至关重要。研究地点包括六个村庄，横跨广阔的育空流域，在永久冻土类型、气候、生态系统、社区和文化方面各不相同。来自育空地区村庄的项目科学家、实习生和顾问正在测量湖泊面积变化、水化学、地面融化程度和甲烷排放。该项目是育空河流域土著村庄、YRITWC、北方社会环境研究所（NSER）、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校（CU）北极和高山研究所（INSTAAR）、机械工程研究所（CU）、环境科学合作研究所（CIRES）和阿拉斯加费尔班克斯大学之间的合作项目。在研究区，热岩溶湖的甲烷沸腾是辐射效应主要增加的迫在眉睫的来源，但在时间和规模上存在很大的不确定性。阿拉斯加州永久冻土层占主导地位的地区目前甲烷排放的陆地和空中观测结果大相径庭。为了调和这种不确定性，两项新技术正在部署，以弥补缺失的测量尺度：1)双频梳状光谱首次在北极使用，2)固定翼无人机提供了新的甲烷传感。此外，通过采用定性研究技术、参与式制图和半定向访谈，将土著关于景观变化的知识与冻土/湖冰物候学结合起来，为收集到的测量结果提供信息和背景。通过与连接土著、州和联邦实体的土著观测网络数据库的整合，研究成果可以直接在当地应用。通过基于网络的、开源的永久冻土动态、气候和地表过程建模环境，共同制作适应性预报的能力正在得到增强。基于该委员会的指导，我们正在开发湖区景观演变模型，并将其应用于社区规划。基于新的失配矩阵方法，本地知识为模型提供了关键输入，其中匹配可以验证输出，而失配揭示了调整参数和优化预测的潜在机会。这种跨学科的方法融合了自然科学和社会科学的范式，产生了对理解全球动态和解决当地社会需求至关重要的环境知识。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Navigating the New Arctic (NNA) is one of NSF's 10 Big Ideas. NNA projects address convergence scientific challenges in the rapidly changing Arctic. The Arctic research is needed to inform the economy, security and resilience of the Nation, the larger region and the globe. NNA empowers new research partnerships from local to international scales, diversifies the next generation of Arctic researchers, enhances efforts in formal and informal education, and integrates the co-production of knowledge where appropriate. This award fulfills part of that aim by addressing interactions among social systems and the natural environment in the following NNA focus areas: Arctic Residents, Data and Observation, Forecasting, and Global Impact.Observations and modeling suggest the globe is standing on the inflection point of abrupt permafrost change. Increased methane emissions from newly formed lakes in melting permafrost regions likely play a major role in global climate. Reduction in permafrost and associated landscape change increasingly place Arctic and global communities at risk. Hence, improved forecasts for planning are critically needed. This project brings Alaskan communities together with social and natural scientists to examine changes in permafrost thaw lake environments, including the effects on Yukon River watershed villages and global climate. The project goals were defined by the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) to focus on lake area change, drinking water quality, and frozen transport corridors—topics identified by local stakeholders as critically important. The study sites comprise six villages across the vast Yukon watershed varying in permafrost types, climates, ecosystems, communities, and cultures. Project scientists and interns and advisors from Yukon villages are measuring lake area change, water chemistry, extent of ground melt, and methane emissions. This project is a collaboration between Yukon River Watershed indigenous villages, the YRITWC, Northern Social-Environmental Research (NSER), the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado Boulder (CU), Mechanical Engineering (CU), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and the University of Alaska Fairbanks.In the research study region, methane ebullition from thermokarst lakes is an imminent source of major increases to the radiative effect but substantial uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale. Land and aerial observations of present-day methane emissions in permafrost-dominated regions of Alaska are highly divergent. To reconcile this uncertainty, two new technologies are being deployed to bridge missing measurement scales: 1) Dual frequency comb spectroscopy is being used in the Arctic for the first time, and 2) Fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles provide novel methane sensing. Additionally, Indigenous knowledge of landscape change is being utilized with frozen ground/lake ice phenology to inform and add context to collected measurements by employing qualitative research techniques, participatory mapping, and semi-directed interviews. Research results have direct local application through integration with the Indigenous Observation Network database that links Indigenous, State, and Federal entities. The capacity for co-produced, adaptive forecasts is being enhanced with a web-based, open-source modeling environment of permafrost dynamics, climate, and surface processes. Based on guidance from the YRITWC, a Landscape Evolution Model of lake area change is being developed for its community planning applications. Indigenous knowledge provides key inputs for the model based upon a new mismatch matrix approach where matches can validate outputs, and mismatches reveal potential opportunities to adjust parameters and optimize forecasts. This interdisciplinary approach converges natural and social science paradigms to produce environmental knowledge important for contributing to the understanding of both global dynamics and addressing local societal needs.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.