Towards climate stabilisation: understanding changes in climate, climate variability, and impacts

实现气候稳定：了解气候变化、气候变异性和影响

• 批准号: NE/X017850/1
• 负责人: Andrea Dittus
• 金额: $ 79.2万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX017850%2F1
• 关键词: Towards; climate; stabilisation; understanding; changes

The aims of the Paris Agreement state that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial and 1.5 if possible. The implication of the Agreement is that global temperatures should permanently stay at or below this threshold. To stabilise global temperatures at a given level in the long-term, warming at the global scale must be halted. This can only be achieved by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to net-zero. If all existing climate policies are successfully implemented, the world is currently on track for between 2.5 and 3 degrees of global warming. Given the explicit aims of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to less than 2 degrees, it is important to study what stabilising temperatures at specific global warming levels would mean for regional climate in different regions across the globe.Research into stabilised climates is still in its early stages. Evidence is beginning to emerge that a stabilised climate could be very different from a rapidly warming climate, even at the same global warming level. However, the physical mechanisms explaining these differences in the mean state remain poorly understood. Beyond the mean state, even less is known about how internal modes of climate variability might differ in a warmer, stabilised climate. Changes in the pattern, frequency, or amplitude of modes of variability would have severe impacts across much of the world. Changes in the mean state and in internal climate variability must be quantified and understood, and incorporated into future climate change risk assessments. In addition to needing to include stabilised climate projections, climate change risk assessments also need to account for natural influences on climate. An often overlooked risk with significant consequences is the possibility of a series of large volcanic eruptions occurring in a future warmer climate. Several successive large volcanic eruptions occurred in the 19th century, and a similar sequence of eruptions could occur again. A storyline where a series of large volcanic eruptions occur in a stabilised climate will be explored in this fellowship.This fellowship will fill an important gap in our assessments of possible future climate change and regional climate risk. Climate model simulations are an important tool to explore possible future climates and investigate the mechanisms of future climate change. Currently, only very few experiments designed to study stabilisation at specific global warming levels exist. Novel ensembles designed to study climate stabilisation and the response to volcanic eruptions in a warmer, stabilised climate will be produced in this fellowship. This highly novel approach will generate important insights into the risks of a future world where temperatures have stabilised and produce a valuable resource to be shared with the broad science community at the end of this fellowship. The outcomes of this fellowship will inform policy and adaptation discussions over the next decade and beyond.

《巴黎协定》的目的指出，如果可能的话，应将全球变暖限制为2度的变暖，如果可能的话，应限制为1.5。该协议的含义是，全球温度应永久保持或低于此阈值。为了长期稳定在给定水平的全球温度，必须停止在全球范围内进行变暖。这只能通过将温室气体的排放量减少到零来实现。如果成功实施了所有现有的气候政策，那么全球目前的全球变暖范围为2.5至3度。鉴于巴黎协议的明确目的将升温限制为不到2度，重要的是要研究特定的全球变暖水平的稳定温度对于全球不同地区的区域气候意味着什么。研究稳定气候的研究仍处于早期阶段。有证据表明，即使在同一全球变暖水平，稳定的气候也可能与快速变暖的气候大不相同。但是，解释平均状态中这些差异的物理机制仍然很少理解。除了平均状态之外，对于温暖，稳定的气候中的内部气候变化方式可能会有所不同，甚至更少。变化模式的模式，频率或振幅的变化将在世界上大部分地区产生严重影响。必须量化和理解平均状态和内部气候变异性的变化，并将其纳入未来的气候变化风险评估中。除了需要包括稳定的气候预测外，气候变化风险评估还需要考虑对气候的自然影响。经常被忽视的风险带有重大后果，可能是在未来温暖的气候中发生一系列大型火山喷发。 19世纪发生了几次连续的大型火山喷发，可能再次发生类似的喷发。在这个奖学金中将探讨一个故事情节，其中将在稳定气候中发生一系列大型火山喷发。该奖学金将填补我们对未来气候变化和地区气候风险的评估中的重要差距。气候模型模拟是探索未来气候并研究未来气候变化的机制的重要工具。目前，只有很少有用于研究特定全球变暖水平稳定的实验。旨在研究气候稳定的新型合奏以及在该团契中将产生温暖，稳定气候中火山喷发的反应。这种高度新颖的方法将产生重要的见解，以了解未来世界的风险，在该世界中，温度已经稳定并产生了宝贵的资源，可以在该研究金的结束时与广泛的科学界共享。该奖学金的成果将为未来十年及以后的政策和适应讨论提供依据。