Towards climate stabilisation: understanding changes in climate, climate variability, and impacts

实现气候稳定：了解气候变化、气候变异性和影响

• 批准号: NE/X017850/1
• 负责人: Andrea Dittus
• 金额: $ 79.2万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2024
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2024 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FX017850%2F1
• 关键词: Towards; climate; stabilisation; understanding; changes

The aims of the Paris Agreement state that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees of warming above pre-industrial and 1.5 if possible. The implication of the Agreement is that global temperatures should permanently stay at or below this threshold. To stabilise global temperatures at a given level in the long-term, warming at the global scale must be halted. This can only be achieved by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases to net-zero. If all existing climate policies are successfully implemented, the world is currently on track for between 2.5 and 3 degrees of global warming. Given the explicit aims of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to less than 2 degrees, it is important to study what stabilising temperatures at specific global warming levels would mean for regional climate in different regions across the globe.Research into stabilised climates is still in its early stages. Evidence is beginning to emerge that a stabilised climate could be very different from a rapidly warming climate, even at the same global warming level. However, the physical mechanisms explaining these differences in the mean state remain poorly understood. Beyond the mean state, even less is known about how internal modes of climate variability might differ in a warmer, stabilised climate. Changes in the pattern, frequency, or amplitude of modes of variability would have severe impacts across much of the world. Changes in the mean state and in internal climate variability must be quantified and understood, and incorporated into future climate change risk assessments. In addition to needing to include stabilised climate projections, climate change risk assessments also need to account for natural influences on climate. An often overlooked risk with significant consequences is the possibility of a series of large volcanic eruptions occurring in a future warmer climate. Several successive large volcanic eruptions occurred in the 19th century, and a similar sequence of eruptions could occur again. A storyline where a series of large volcanic eruptions occur in a stabilised climate will be explored in this fellowship.This fellowship will fill an important gap in our assessments of possible future climate change and regional climate risk. Climate model simulations are an important tool to explore possible future climates and investigate the mechanisms of future climate change. Currently, only very few experiments designed to study stabilisation at specific global warming levels exist. Novel ensembles designed to study climate stabilisation and the response to volcanic eruptions in a warmer, stabilised climate will be produced in this fellowship. This highly novel approach will generate important insights into the risks of a future world where temperatures have stabilised and produce a valuable resource to be shared with the broad science community at the end of this fellowship. The outcomes of this fellowship will inform policy and adaptation discussions over the next decade and beyond.

《巴黎协定》的目标规定，全球变暖应限制在比工业化前高出2摄氏度，如果可能的话为1.5摄氏度。该协议的含义是，全球气温应永久保持在或低于这一门槛。要使全球气温长期稳定在给定水平，就必须停止全球范围内的变暖。这只能通过将温室气体排放减少到净零排放来实现。如果所有现有的气候政策都得到成功实施，目前全球变暖的幅度将在2.5到3度之间。鉴于《巴黎协定》明确的目标是将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度以下，研究将气温稳定在特定的全球变暖水平对全球不同地区的区域气候意味着什么是很重要的。对稳定气候的研究仍处于早期阶段。开始有证据表明，稳定的气候可能与迅速变暖的气候截然不同，即使在相同的全球变暖水平上也是如此。然而，解释平均状态下这些差异的物理机制仍然知之甚少。除了平均状态之外，关于气候变化的内部模式在更温暖、更稳定的气候中可能会有什么不同，更是鲜为人知。变化模式的模式、频率或幅度的变化将对世界大部分地区产生严重影响。必须量化和理解平均状态和内部气候变异性的变化，并将其纳入未来的气候变化风险评估。除了需要包括稳定的气候预测外，气候变化风险评估还需要考虑对气候的自然影响。一个经常被忽视、具有重大后果的风险是，在未来气候变暖的情况下，可能会发生一系列大规模火山喷发。19世纪连续发生了几次大型火山喷发，类似的喷发序列可能会再次发生。该研究金将探索在稳定的气候下发生一系列大型火山喷发的故事情节。这一研究金将填补我们在评估未来可能发生的气候变化和区域气候风险方面的一个重要空白。气候模型模拟是探索未来可能的气候和研究未来气候变化机制的重要工具。目前，只有很少的实验旨在研究在特定的全球变暖水平下的稳定性。在这项研究中，将产生旨在研究气候稳定和在更温暖、稳定的气候下对火山喷发的反应的新的合奏。这种非常新颖的方法将对未来世界的风险产生重要的见解，在未来世界，气温已经稳定，并产生一个宝贵的资源，在这一奖学金结束时与广泛的科学界共享。这一研究金的结果将为今后十年及以后的政策和适应讨论提供信息。