CAREER: Quantifying Environmental-Ecological Relationships for Watershed Sustainability Analysis

摘要0747276（蔡）。 该职业奖侧重于可持续流域管理（SWM），使用定量跨学科分析来了解以水文-生态-社会经济关系为特征的复杂流域系统内的相互关系和生态阈值。 明确的生态目标方程（ETEs），量化鱼类群落多样性和丰度与生态相关环境指标（EREI）之间的关系，将制定流量和水质指标。 多代理系统（MAS）模型相结合的异构代理行为，流域水文，定量环境生态关系将实施。 将确定和验证具有科学意义的生态阈值。 将在研究和教育方面建立一种面向问题、以需求为驱动的相互学习的办法，促进批判性思维，并将反思性的经验和教训纳入定量分析。 埃特概念和工具将明确地处理环境变量与目标生态系统的相关性。 从数百个指标中识别EREIs将解决指标冗余问题，这阻碍了对生态水文连通性的科学理解和流域恢复工程设计。 基本的问题，如人类的干扰如何迫使流域生态系统跨越阈值，将通过基于MAS的建模来解决。 生态阈值的发现和理解是对流域不可逆转的转变进行早期预警的关键。 该项目为五大影响铺平了道路：1）ETEs和EREIs将成为生态学家和水文学家的有效工具，预计生态水文学关联性的发现将激发更广泛和更深入的科学研究，2）基于MAS的虚拟模型将为SWM的教育，研究和实践部门提供与科学理解相关的广泛问题的沟通，管理政策评估和决策支持，3）要开发的概念、程序和工具将具有足够的通用性，可扩展到非鱼类生态系统指标，如河岸植被和栖息地，4）虚拟工具练习将为更有效的传感和监测系统设计以及流域网络基础设施开发提供指导方针，以及5）相互学习计划将通过有意地联系利益相关者群体来增强长期可持续性，为增加少数和代表性不足的利益相关者的参与提供新的机会。

Abstract0747276 (Cai). This CAREER award focuses on sustainable watershed management (SWM) using quantitative interdisciplinary analysis to understand the inter-relationships and ecological thresholds within complex watershed systems characterized by hydrological-ecological-socioeconomic relationships. Explicit ecological target equations (ETEs) that quantify the relationships between fish community diversity and abundance and ecologically relevant environmental indicators (EREIs, e.g., streamflow and water quality metrics) will be developed. A multiple agent system (MAS) model combining heterogeneous agent behaviors, watershed hydrology, and quantitative environmental-ecological relationships will be implemented. Scientifically meaningful ecological thresholds will be identified and validated. A problem oriented, demand-driven mutual learning approach to research and education, which facilitates critical thinking and assimilates reflective experiences and lessons into quantitative analysis, will be created.Intellectual Merit. The ETE concept and tool will explicitly address the relevance of environmental variables to the target ecosystem. Identifying the EREIs from hundreds of metrics will resolve the indicator redundancy problem that hinders both the scientific understanding of ecology-hydrology connectedness and engineering design for watershed restoration. Fundamental questions, such as how human interference forces watershed ecosystems across thresholds, will be addressed through MAS-based modeling. The discovery and understanding of ecological thresholds is the key to early warning of irreversible transitions in watersheds.Broader Impacts. This project paves the way for five broad impacts: 1) ETEs and EREIs will be effective tools for both ecologists and hydrologists, and the findings on ecology-hydrology connectedness are expected to stimulate wider and deeper scientific research, 2) the MAS-based virtual model will provide a communication among the education, research, and practice sectors of SWM for a wide range of problems related to scientific understanding, management policy evaluation, and decision making support, 3) the concepts, procedures, and tools to be developed will be generalizable enough to be extendible to non-fish ecosystem indicators such as riparian vegetation and habitats, 4) virtual tool exercises will provide guidelines for more efficient sensing and monitoring system design and for cyberinfrastructure development in watersheds,, and 5) the mutual learning program will enhance long-term sustainability by intentionally connecting stakeholder groups, providing new opportunities to increase involvement and participation of minority and underrepresented stakeholders.