Collaborative Research:GLOBEC Pan-regional Synthesis: Pacific Ocean Boundary Ecosystems: response to natural and anthropogenic climate forcing

知识价值：太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）等大尺度年代际气候指数与东西边界海洋生态系统多个营养水平的变化有关。最近对东北太平洋的研究表明，其他独立的气候模式在解释沿海海洋上升流和运输动力学的变化方面同样重要。控制区域养分通量和浮游生态系统动力学的基本过程。这表明，必须考虑与多个大尺度气候模式相关的强迫函数的相互作用，以充分诊断区域生态系统变化的动力学和力学基础。在此框架下，本项目将广泛的国内和国际现场和卫星观测与数值和统计物理生物学模型相结合，以诊断四个太平洋边界生态系统对大规模自然和人为气候强迫的响应。重点区域是：阿拉斯加湾、加利福尼亚洋流系统、秘鲁-智利洋流系统和黑潮-漂潮延伸区。这一目标将通过四个核心研究目标来实现。首先，将调查1960-2007年期间大尺度气候模式（如PDO、NPGO、ENSO等）驱动太平洋边界生态系统连贯变化的程度和机制。其次，研究人员将量化并解释各边界区域海洋过程（如上升流、运输动力学、混合和中尺度结构）的变化如何控制浮游植物和浮游动物的动力学。这些结果将用于测试每个研究区域的变化在多大程度上反映了对各自生态系统自下而上的控制。第三，将量化较长周期气候模式（如PDO、NPGO等）不同阶段的短周期事件（如季节内振荡、春季过渡时间）统计变化在多大程度上决定边界流生态系统的气候状态。最后，将利用IPCC 2007（政府间气候变化专门委员会）报告中选定的气候模式整合的强迫情景，探讨区域海洋动力学及其生态系统对气候变化响应的不确定性范围。最后一个目标将开始评估气候变化对区域海洋生态系统的潜在影响，这是IPCC最新报告中没有提及的一个主题，但却是大多数渔业和沿海管理的主要工具。这些分析的成功依赖于研究人员的各种专业知识，包括物理生物观测、区域海洋生态系统数值模拟、统计物理生物模拟和IPCC耦合气候模式预测。更广泛的影响：该项目将对经济上至关重要的太平洋东部和西部边界的低频生态系统动态提供更好和统一的理解。它还将提供新的方法来评估海洋生态系统中与区域气候变化有关的不确定性，这对渔业管理和IPCC的未来评估有直接影响。项目团队由学术界和政府科学家紧密合作，研究将在来自南美、日本和加拿大的国际合作者的支持下进行。这些合作将通过科学交流为国际和美国学生提供培训，扩大美国研究人员和外国合作者的国际网络。四名年轻的ppi将得到支持，其中包括三名女科学家，其中两人之前没有获得过NSF的支持或其他资金来源。该项目的活动和成果也将通过REU项目扩展到本科生，并通过SMILE（科学和数学研究性学习经验）项目扩展到服务不足的高中生。

Intellectual Merits: Large-scale decadal Pacific climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have been linked to changes across multiple trophic levels of marine ecosystems along the eastern and western boundaries. Recent studies of the Northeast Pacific show that other independent climate modes are equally important in explaining changes in coastal ocean upwelling and transport dynamics ? the fundamental processes controlling regional nutrient fluxes and planktonic ecosystem dynamics. This suggests that the interplay of forcing functions associated with multiple large-scale climate modes must be considered to adequately diagnose the dynamics and mechanics underlying variations in regional ecosystems. With this framework, this project combines extensive national and international in situ and satellite observations with numerical and statistical physical-biological models to diagnose the response of four Pacific boundary ecosystems to large-scale natural and anthropogenic climate forcing. The focus regions are: the Gulf of Alaska, the California Current System, the Peru-Chile Current System , and the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension region. This goal will be approached through four core research objectives. First, the extent to which, and by which mechanisms, large-scale climate modes (e.g. PDO, NPGO, ENSO, and others) drove coherent changes across Pacific boundary ecosystems over the period 1960-2007 will be investigated. Second, the investigators will quantify and explain how changes in regional ocean processes (e.g. upwelling, transport dynamics, mixing and mesoscale structure) at each boundary control phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics. Those results will be used to test the degree to which changes in each study region reflect bottom-up control of their respective ecosystems. Third, the extent to which changes in the statistics of shorter-period events (e.g. intra-seasonal oscillation, timing of spring transitions) during different phases of the longer-period climate modes (e.g. PDO, NPGO and others) determine the climate state of boundary-current ecosystems will be quantified. Finally, the range of uncertainties in the response of regional ocean dynamics and their ecosystems to climate change using forcing scenarios from selected climate model integrations that are part of the IPCC 2007 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report will be explored. This last objective will begin an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on regional ocean ecosystems, a topic poorly addressed in the latest IPCC report, but the chief instrument for most fisheries and coastal management. The success of these analyses relies on the diverse expertise of the investigators, which include physical biological observations, numerical regional ocean ecosystem modeling, statistical physical-biological modeling and IPCC coupled climate model projections. Broader Impacts: This project will provide an improved and unified understanding of low-frequency ecosystem dynamics in the economically vital eastern and western boundaries of the Pacific Ocean. It will also deliver new methodologies for assessing the uncertainties associated with regional climate change in marine ecosystems with direct implication for fisheries management and future assessment of the IPCC. The project team represents a close collaboration of academic and government scientists, and the research will be conducted with the support of international collaborators from South America, Japan and Canada. These collaborations will provide training for both international and US students through scientific exchanges, expanding the international network for both the US investigators and foreign collaborators. Four young PIs will be supported, including three female scientists, two of which have no previous NSF support or other sources of funding. Activities and results from this project will also extend to the undergraduate students through REU programs, and underserved high school students through the SMILE (Science and Math Investigative Learning Experiences) Program.