NSWP: A New Empirical Model for Prediction of Ground-Level Geomagnetic Perturbations

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This is a three-year effort to produce models of the high latitude ground magnetic field variations as function of the solar wind and IMF conditions. The work uses the same technique of spherical harmonic expansion that has been utilized in the existing ?Weimer models? of ionospheric electrodynamics. In the new model the scalar magnetic potential will be matched to ground based magnetometer measurements. First, a static baseline model will be developed. Next, dynamical information where the magnetic field is perturbed due to sudden pressure pulses in the solar wind will be included through a superposed epoch analysis, equivalent to a disturbance-response classification process. Datasets from the Canadian CARISMA chain, the Greenland Chain, and the Virtual Global Magnetic Observatory residing at Virginia Tech will be used together with solar wind data from the ACE satellite. The new models will have widespread utility within the space science community and also has the potential to contribute directly to improved space weather forecasts and/or nowcasts in the near-term future.