Estimating RDD Survey Bias Using ZIP Code Matching to Census Data

在家庭调查中，低回复率和不断下降的回复率提供了潜在的非反应偏差，但当非应答者的特征未知时，评估非反应偏差是一个具有挑战性的问题。例如，对于随机数字拨号（RDD）调查，关于非应答者的信息可能仅限于电话号码。为了解决这个问题，有时使用人口普查地理编码（CG）方法。此方法将小地理单元（例如，人口普查块、街区组或区域）的汇总人口普查信息附加到位于这些单元中的无响应案例中。然后，这些普查数据可以用来评估无反应偏差或对其进行调整。很少有人知道CG方法的有效性，但它经常用于无响应评估，特别是RDD调查。虽然CG方法是从非受访者中恢复信息的重要工具，但它依赖于其假设满足的程度。这个研究项目将使用RDD和面对面调查数据来调查CG方法的有效性，并将制定实施该方法的指导方针，以便最大限度地提高其在家庭调查中使用的有效性。拟议项目的目标之一是调查有效应用CG方法所需的最小信息量。例如，如果只知道一个电话号码，则必须使用更接近电话交换级别的普查汇总数据，而不是在块级别。寻找一种有效的方法来评估和纠正家庭调查中的非反应偏差，将是对调查研究的重要贡献。许多社会科学依赖于基于概率的调查，而这反过来又依赖于从所有样本成员那里获得调查结果的能力。无响应威胁到基于概率的推理。本项目将促进关于评估和调整调查中无反应偏差的方法的知识。该项目不仅将评价电话调查中使用的CG方法，而且将评价几乎任何可以使用CG方法的调查。这包括任何关于非受访者的信息仅限于地址、邮政编码或电话号码的调查，几乎没有其他信息。许多家庭调查都使用地址框架，其中一个框架单位所知道的就是家庭姓氏、地址，在某些情况下还有电话号码。CG方法可以应用于这些情况，以评估由于无反应的偏差。作为支持调查和统计方法研究的联合活动的一部分，该研究得到了方法、测量和统计计划和联邦统计机构联盟的支持。

Low and declining response rates in household surveys provide the potential for nonresponse bias, but assessing the nonresponse bias is a challenging problem when characteristics of nonrespondents are unknown. For example, for random-digit-dial (RDD) surveys, information about nonrespondents may be limited to just the telephone number. To address this issue, the census geocoding (CG) method has sometimes been used. This method appends aggregate census information for small geographic units (for example, census blocks, block groups, or tracts) to nonresponding cases located in those units. These census data can then be used to evaluate nonresponse bias or adjust for it. Little is known about the effectiveness of the CG approach, but it is often used in nonresponse evaluations, particularly for RDD surveys. While the CG method is an important tool for recovering information from nonrespondents, it relies on the degree to which its assumptions are met. This research project will investigate the efficacy of the CG method using RDD and face-to-face survey data and will develop guidelines for implementing it so as to maximize its effectiveness for use in household surveys. One of the goals of the proposed project is to investigate the minimum amount of information required to apply the CG approach effectively. As an example, if only a telephone number is known, census aggregate data closer to the telephone exchange-level must be used rather than at the block-level. Finding a method that can be used effectively to evaluate and correct for nonresponse bias in household surveys will be an important contribution to survey research.Much of social science relies on probability-based surveys, which in turn rely on the ability to obtain survey measures from all sample members. Nonresponse threatens probability-based inference. This project will advance the knowledge about methods for evaluating and adjusting for nonresponse bias in surveys. The project will not only evaluate the CG method for use in telephone surveys but for virtually any survey where the CG method can be used. This includes any survey where information on nonrespondents is limited to an address, ZIP code, or telephone number and very little else. Many household surveys use address frames where all that is known for a frame unit is the household family name, the address and, in some cases, a telephone number. The CG approach can be applied in these situations to evaluate the bias due to nonresponse. The research is supported by the Methodology, Measurement, and Statistics Program and a consortium of federal statistical agencies as part of a joint activity to support research on survey and statistical methodology.