A Theory of Measurable Ambiguity

可测量的模糊性理论

• 批准号: 0820101
• 负责人: Faruk Gul
• 金额: $ 26.45万
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-08-01 至 2012-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0820101&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Theory; Measurable; Ambiguity

The project develops and analyzes a new model of choice under uncertainty. The standard rational choice model for uncertain situations is the von Neumann Morgenstern Expected Utility model. While economists and other social scientists have used this model as the foundation for a great deal of research, the model does not do a good job of predicting how individuals make decisions in ambiguous situations. The Subjective Expected Uncertain Utility (SEUU) model is simple and is also suitable for analyzing how people make decisions under ambiguity.The model has a novel event-assessment criterion called semiprobabilistic sophistication, reduces acts into gambles called bilotteries, and evaluates these gambles according to an expected utility criterion. This framework can easily be used to analyze ambiguous events and uncertain consequences. The basic feature of the model is that betting on an ambiguous event yields an uncertain gamble. The individual may or may not prefer such an ambiguous gamble to a bet on an unabiguous event depending on how likely the two evets are, how ambiguous they are, and his/her attitude towards uncertainty.The research provides an axiomatic foundation for the new theory, develops and analyses appropriate measures of uncertainty and risk aversion and relates them to properties of ambiguous situations, and identifies ways to empirically test this model.This research will have broader impact because a tractable model of ambiguity will be applicable to many research and policy questions in macroeconomics and financial economics.

该项目开发和分析了一个新的不确定性下的选择模型。 不确定情况下的标准理性选择模型是冯·诺依曼·摩根斯坦期望效用模型。 虽然经济学家和其他社会科学家已经将这一模型作为大量研究的基础，但该模型并不能很好地预测个人如何在模糊的情况下做出决策。主观期望不确定效用（SEUU）模型是一个简单的模型，也适用于分析人们在模糊情况下的决策行为，该模型具有一个新的事件评估标准--半概率复杂度，将行为简化为博弈，并根据期望效用标准对这些博弈进行评估。 这个框架可以很容易地用来分析模糊的事件和不确定的后果。 该模型的基本特征是，在一个模棱两可的事件上下注会产生一个不确定的赌博。 个人可能会或可能不会喜欢这样一个模糊的赌博，而不是一个不确定的事件取决于如何可能的两个evets，他们是多么模糊，以及他/她的态度不确定性。这项研究提供了一个公理基础的新理论，发展和分析适当的措施，不确定性和风险厌恶，并将它们与属性的模糊情况，并确定了实证检验这一模型的方法。这项研究将产生更广泛的影响，因为一个易于处理的模糊模型将适用于宏观经济学和金融经济学中的许多研究和政策问题。