Random and Dynamic Choice

随机动态选择

• 批准号: 0214050
• 负责人: Faruk Gul
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Princeton University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2002
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2002-08-01 至 2007-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0214050&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Random; Dynamic; Choice

This proposal contains two related research projects on dynamic choice. Both of these projects will be undertaken jointly with Wolfgang Pesendorfer of Princeton University.Often, observed choice behavior will not be consistent with a single, deterministic choice criterion (i.e., utility function). That is, the decision-maker will make different choices in virtually identical situations. Such behavior is best modeled as random choice. The first project entitled "Random Utility, Uncertain Moods and Bounded Rationality," addresses the following question: when can a random choice be interpreted as the consequence of maximizing a randomly chosen criterion for ranking the alternatives. Hence, we investigate the consequences of behavior that is derived from a fixed, probabilistic rule for selecting a utility function. After the utility function is selected, the agent chooses the alternative that maximizes it among the available options. This way of interpreting behavior is important for the analysis of aggregate data, boundedly rational behavior and situations with asymmetric information. In our work, we study choice over risk prospects and randomly selected expected utility functions.The second project entitled "The Revealed Preference Theory of Changing Tastes" studies dynamic inconsistency. Dynamic inconsistency refers to the tendency of agents to make different choices from the same set of alternatives depending on when they are asked to choose. For example, an individual who prefers a larger later reward to a smaller earlier reward may reverse his preference as the date of the smaller earlier reward gets closer. Many decision problems require the agent to make choices at various moments in time. In such problems, the key is how the decision-maker forms expectations about his own future behavior. This research takes the position that the agent's beliefs regarding his future behavior can best be analyzed through his current behavior and seeks to identify these beliefs through choice experiments. That is, we wish to identify methods for determining the agent's expectations about his future behavior from actual choices made in the current period. The advantage of the revealed preference approach is that preferences over choice problems are - at least in principal - observable.

该提案包含两个关于动态选择的相关研究项目。这两个项目都将与普林斯顿大学的沃尔夫冈·佩森多夫联合进行。通常，观察到的选择行为不会与单一的、确定性的选择标准（即，效用函数）。也就是说，决策者会在几乎相同的情况下做出不同的选择。这种行为最好用随机选择来模拟。第一个项目题为“随机效用、不确定情绪和有限理性”，探讨以下问题：何时可以将随机选择解释为最大化随机选择的备选方案排序标准的结果。 因此，我们调查的后果，来自一个固定的，概率规则选择效用函数的行为。在效用函数被选择之后，代理人在可用选项中选择使其最大化的替代方案。这种解释行为的方法对于分析聚合数据、有限理性行为和信息不对称的情况非常重要。在我们的工作中，我们研究了风险前景的选择和随机选择的期望效用函数。第二个项目题为“改变口味的显示偏好理论”，研究动态不一致性。动态不一致性是指代理人根据被要求选择的时间从同一组替代方案中做出不同选择的倾向。例如，一个人喜欢较大的较晚奖励而不是较小的较早奖励，当较小的较早奖励的日期越来越近时，他可能会改变他的偏好。许多决策问题要求智能体在不同的时刻做出选择。在这些问题中，关键是决策者如何形成对自己未来行为的预期。本研究采取的立场，代理人的信念，他的未来的行为，可以通过他目前的行为进行最好的分析，并试图通过选择实验来确定这些信念。也就是说，我们希望确定的方法来确定代理人的期望，他的未来行为，从实际的选择，在目前的时期。显示偏好方法的优点是，偏好超过选择问题是--至少在原则上--可观察的。