Incorporating institutional, political, and other non-economic drivers in models of large-scale energy transformations to address climate change

如果人类社会要通过减少温室气体排放来应对气候变化，就必须更好地了解变革性技术成为主流能源系统重要组成部分的途径。目前，对新技术的可能采用和影响进行建模的主要工具称为综合评估模型。到目前为止，IAM对技术变革的表述是不完整的：虽然它们包括了某些经济因素的有力表述，但它们不包括制度、行为和社会因素。技术变革的研究表明，所有这些都是从根本上重要的技术采用和使用。这项研究旨在开发更好的代表性的非经济驱动力的技术变革的能源转换。研究人员将开始比较案例研究，涉及三个国家（巴西、瑞典和美国）的两种大规模能源技术（乙醇和核能）。其余的工作结合理论，实地调查和建模的目标，开发改进的，更有效的IAM。改进对减缓气候变化技术传播的预测，有助于私营部门和决策者设计更有效的减缓政策和执行战略。

If human societies are to address climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, they must better understand the pathways by which transformative technologies become significant components of mainstream energy systems. Currently the primary tools for modelling the potential adoption and effects of new technologies are called integrated assessment models (IAMs). As of now, IAM representations of technological change are incomplete: while they include robust representations of certain economic factors, they do not include institutional, behavioral and social factors. Studies of technological change suggest that all of these these are fundamentally important to technology adoption and use.This research seeks to develop better representations of non-economic drivers of technological change in energy transformations. The investigators will begin with camparative case studies involving two large-scale energy technologies (ethanol and nuclear power) in three countries (Brazil, Sweden, and the United States). The remainder of the work combines theory, field investigation, and modeling with the goal of developing improved, more valid IAMs. Improved projections of technology diffusion for climate change mitigation could help both the private sector and policymakers design more effective mitigation policies and implementation strategies.