COLLABORATIVE PROPOSAL: DRU: INCORPORATING HOUSEHOLD DECISION MAKING AND DYNAMIC TRANSPORTATION MODELING IN HURRICANE EVACUATION: AN INTEGRATED SOCIAL SCIENCE-ENGINEERING APPROACH

该项目将通过将家庭决策的行为建模与动态交通建模相结合，开发了解飓风疏散的新方法。通过对疏散决策的理解，研究将有助于提高飓风疏散的效率。本项目将开发新的建模方法来：(1)通过对迈阿密-戴德县居民的调查，估计影响家庭疏散决策的社会、人口和文化特征；(2)了解人们如何合成疏散警告，直到他们做出疏散决定；(3)评估基于空间位置的家庭决策的影响；(4)估计疏散人员从警告时间开始的时间变化；(5)根据时间需求模式确定最优出发时间、最优路线和目的地选择；(6)结合社会科学分析获得的行为规则来模拟交通系统的影响；(7)确定如何将从多个飓风情景中获得的结果分发给利益相关者。该项目将结合社会科学、网络优化、基于主体的建模、交通运营、随机优化和飓风应急响应等多学科方法来理解飓风疏散。

This project will develop new methodologies for understanding hurricane evacuations by integrating behavioral modeling of household decision making with dynamic transportation modeling. By understanding evacuation decision making, the research will contribute to improving the efficiency of hurricane evacuation.This project will develop novel modeling approaches to: (1) Estimate the social, demographic and cultural characteristics that influence household evacuation decision making from surveys of Miami-Dade County residents; (2) Understand how people synthesize evacuation warnings up to the time they make the decision to evacuate;(3) Assess the influence of household decisions based on spatial location; (4) Estimate the temporal variation of evacuees from the time of warning; (5) Determine the optimal time of departure, optimal route and destination choice based on the temporal demand patterns; (6) Incorporate behavioral rules obtained from social science analysis to simulate the transportation system impacts; and (7) Identify ways to distribute the obtained results from multiple hurricane scenarios to stakeholders.The project will use multidisciplinary approaches to understand hurricane evacuation by bringing together approaches from social science, network optimization, agent-based modeling, transportation operations, stochastic optimization and hurricane emergency response.