PRAC Collaborative Research: Testing Hypotheses about Climate Prediction at Unprecedented Resolutions on the NSF Blue Waters System

PRAC 合作研究：在 NSF Blue Waters 系统上以前所未有的分辨率测试有关气候预测的假设

• 批准号: 0832705
• 负责人: David Randall
• 金额: $ 1.14万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2014-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0832705&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: PRAC; Collaborative; Research; Testing; Hypotheses

This proposal is for a provisional allocation of time on the Blue Waters computer system, due to become operational in 2011, and for travel funds to support technical coordination by various collaborators with the Blue Waters project team and vendor technical team.The project team will use Blue Water resources for investigations designed to test two hypotheses about the Earth's climate system. The first is that the transport fluxes and other effects associated with cloud processes and ocean mesoscale eddy mixing are significantly different from the theoretically derived averages embodied in the parameterizations used in current-generation climate models, and that these differences explain a large portion of the errors in these models. The second is the hypothesis that a more faithful representation of these eddy-scale processes will increase the predictability of the climates generated by climate models. To test these hypotheses, the project team plans to perform three sets of numerical experiments using three cutting-edge climate models, the Community Climate System Model, a new version of the Community Climate System Model that includes an innovative treatment of cloud processes, and the Colorado State University Global Cloud-Resolving Model.The proposed, high-resolution simulations will also provide a dataset that will allow study of the variability of regional climate as the global-scale climate evolves and provide information about the interplay of weather and climate.The proposed project will answer an important question about the intrinsic reliability of current generation climate models whose predictions are important for understanding the likely impacts of climate variation and strategies for their mitigation. It will improve the quality of information provided to policy-makers and expand its range, providing more information about regional climate variability and its influence on precipitation. The project is led by a member of a demographic group that is under-represented in geosciences research.

该提案旨在临时分配 Blue Waters 计算机系统的时间（预计将于 2011 年投入运行），并提供差旅资金，以支持各个合作者与 Blue Waters 项目团队和供应商技术团队的技术协调。项目团队将使用 Blue Waters 资源进行调查，旨在测试有关地球气候系统的两个假设。 首先，与云过程和海洋中尺度涡流混合相关的传输通量和其他效应与当前一代气候模型中使用的参数化中体现的理论推导平均值显着不同，并且这些差异解释了这些模型中的很大一部分误差。 第二个假设是，更忠实地表示这些涡流尺度过程将提高气候模型生成的气候的可预测性。 为了检验这些假设，项目团队计划使用三个尖端气候模型进行三组数值实验：社区气候系统模型、包括云过程创新处理的新版社区气候系统模型以及科罗拉多州立大学全球云解析模型。拟议的高分辨率模拟还将提供一个数据集，以便研究区域气候随着全球尺度气候演变的变化。 并提供有关天气和气候相互作用的信息。拟议的项目将回答有关当前一代气候模型的内在可靠性的重要问题，其预测对于了解气候变化的可能影响及其缓解策略非常重要。 它将提高向决策者提供的信息质量并扩大其范围，提供更多有关区域气候变化及其对降水影响的信息。 该项目由一名在地球科学研究中代表性不足的人口群体成员领导。