Collaborative Research: Simulations of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework

合作研究：使用多尺度建模框架模拟人为气候变化

• 批准号: 1049041
• 负责人: David Randall
• 金额: $ 148.9万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-06-15 至 2016-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1049041&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Simulations; Anthropogenic; Climate

Intellectual meritThe primary goal of this project is to conduct and analyze simulations of anthropogenic climate change based on a version of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in which the atmosphere and land-surface models are based on "super-parameterization." The principal investigator (PI) and his team will develop and test a community version of this new model configuration to be called the SP-CESM. The effects of moist convection, stratiform cloudiness, radiative transfer, boundary-layer processes, and the land surface will be computed by embedding a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of the SP-CESM. The CRM explicitly accounts for indirect aerosol effects by using the CESM's global aerosol distribution and composition as input to a drop-activation parameterization. The land-surface model, which runs on the CRM's grid, predicts exchanges of latent and sensible heat and CO2 with the global atmosphere, including those due to changes in fine-scale vegetation and land use.The PIs will perform at least one simulation of the pre-industrial climate, at least one of the twentieth century climate, and at least one of the twenty-first century climate based on emissions scenarios developed for use in the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5). Their analysis will focus on improving our understanding and prediction of critical processes and modes of decadal variability in the earth system, the interactions of the land surface hydrology and the atmosphere, and atmospheric cloud processes. These processes impact extreme hydrological cycle events such as droughts, floods, and episodes of extreme precipitation. The PIs will use the model to better understand the feedbacks and changes to interannual and decadal modes of variability, with an eye towards increasing predictive capacity.SP-CESM output will be evaluated against observations, and also compared with the conventional CESM. This project represents an important alternative path forward for climate models and a different perspective than is commonly used for climate simulation. The research has a high probability of significantly enhancing our understanding of climate and its response to anthropogenic perturbations.Broader impactsThe broader impacts of the research are focused around improving predication for society, providing better tools that others can use, and training the next generation of scientists. The core activity of this project is to apply recent research progress to the problem of anthropogenic climate change, in order to help society better understand possible future impacts of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates. Through the CESM project, the PIs' climate model will be released as open source code for other researchers to use and improve in the future. Finally, the PI and his team will be training the next generation of scientists by employing and mentoring graduate students and post-docs.

智慧价值这个项目的主要目标是根据共同体地球系统模型(CESM)的一个版本进行和分析人为气候变化的模拟，其中大气和陆地-地表模型基于“超参数化”。首席研究员(PI)和他的团队将开发和测试这种新模型配置的社区版本，称为SP-CESM。湿对流、层状云、辐射输送、边界层过程和地表的影响将通过在SP-CESM的每个网格列中嵌入云解析模式(CRM)来计算。通过使用CESM的全球气溶胶分布和组成作为滴激活参数的输入，CRM明确地考虑了间接气溶胶效应。陆面模式运行在全球气候监测中心的网格上，预测潜热和感热以及二氧化碳与全球大气的交换，包括由于细微尺度植被和土地利用的变化。PIS将至少模拟工业化前的气候，至少20世纪的气候之一，以及至少21世纪的气候之一，基于为政府间气候变化专门委员会(AR5)制定的排放情景。他们的分析将侧重于改善我们对地球系统中十年变化的关键过程和模式、陆地表面水文与大气的相互作用以及大气云过程的理解和预测。这些过程影响极端水文循环事件，如干旱、洪水和极端降水事件。生产者指数将使用该模式更好地了解年际和年代际变化模式的反馈和变化，着眼于提高预测能力。SP-CESM的产出将根据观测结果进行评估，并与传统的CESM进行比较。该项目代表了气候模型向前发展的一条重要的替代路径，并代表了与气候模拟常用的不同的视角。这项研究很有可能显著提高我们对气候及其对人为干扰的反应的理解。更广泛的影响这项研究的更广泛的影响集中在改善对社会的预测，提供更好的工具供其他人使用，以及培训下一代科学家。该项目的核心活动是将最近的研究进展应用于人为气候变化问题，以帮助社会更好地了解温室气体和颗粒物人为排放未来可能产生的影响。通过CESM项目，PI的气候模型将作为开放源代码发布，供其他研究人员在未来使用和改进。最后，PI和他的团队将通过雇用和指导研究生和博士后来培训下一代科学家。