Communicating Forecast Information to Optimize Evacuation Behavior

这个项目的研究目标是模拟最佳疏散和实际观察到的情况之间的差异。了解疏散行为是应急管理机构规划难题的一部分，因为他们计划将大量人员从家中转移到更安全的地区。各种各样的因素（例如，预测的不确定性、预测信息的传递方式、风险感知和人们自身准备能力的限制、交通工具和可接受的目的地）都会影响疏散行为。对这些因素进行综合建模，以预测人们对各种飓风预报的反应，这是相当复杂的。在此背景下，研究者试图在一个统一的研究框架中回答一些基本问题，如：(1)客观飓风预报信息与主观风险感知之间的联系是什么；(2)主观风险感知及其与其他相关因素的相互作用如何影响疏散行为；(3)观察到的（和预期的）疏散行为如何偏离最佳疏散行为。根据一系列飓风事件提供的对比预测和时间方案，研究人员建议建立一个模型，模拟最佳疏散方案与实际观察到的情况之间的差异。基于社会学、经济学、气象学和飓风风险传播媒体研究的跨学科知识，研究人员建议将描述性（人们的实际行为方式）和规范性（人们在完美信息下的行为方式）方法结合在一个统一的研究框架中，将用户特定的认知和当地风险信息与客观的科学预测信息相结合。在建模方法中纳入主观风险感知，以提供疏散行为的现实预测，将有助于在疏散规划中制定有效的风险管理方案，以减少对沿海灾害的脆弱性。

The research objective of this project is to model the difference between what would have been optimal evacuation and what is actually observed. Understanding evacuation behavior is a part of the planning puzzle for emergency management agencies as they plan the movement of a large number of people out of their homes to safer areas. A wide variety of factors (e.g., forecast uncertainty, mode of transmission of forecast information, risk perception and constraints on people's ability to prepare themselves, transportation means, and an acceptable destination) affect evacuation behavior. Integrated modeling of these factors to predict how people will respond to diverse hurricane forecasts is quite complex. Given this context, the investigators attempt to answer some basic questions in a unified research framework such as (1) what is the link between objective hurricane forecast information and subjective risk perception, (2) how subjective risk perception and its interactions with other relevant factors affect evacuation behavior and (3) how observed (and intended) evacuation behavior deviates from optimal evacuation behavior. From a set of hurricane events that provide contrasting forecasts and timing scenarios, the investigators propose to model the difference between what would have been optimal evacuation and what is actually observed. Built on interdisciplinary knowledge from sociology, economics, meteorology, and media research on hurricane risk communication, the investigators propose to combine both descriptive (the way people actually behave) and prescriptive (the way people should behave under perfect information) approaches in a unified research framework to integrate user-specific cognitive and local risk information with objective scientific forecast information.Incorporating subjective risk perception in the modeling approach to provide realistic predictions of evacuation behavior will be useful to develop efficient risk management options in evacuation planning for reducing vulnerability against coastal hazards.