Communicating Forecast Information to Optimize Evacuation Behavior

传达预测信息以优化疏散行为

• 批准号: 0838683
• 负责人: Pallab Mozumder
• 金额: $ 39.11万
• 依托单位: Florida International University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-01-01 至 2014-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0838683&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Communicating; Forecast; Information; Optimize; Evacuation

The research objective of this project is to model the difference between what would have been optimal evacuation and what is actually observed. Understanding evacuation behavior is a part of the planning puzzle for emergency management agencies as they plan the movement of a large number of people out of their homes to safer areas. A wide variety of factors (e.g., forecast uncertainty, mode of transmission of forecast information, risk perception and constraints on people's ability to prepare themselves, transportation means, and an acceptable destination) affect evacuation behavior. Integrated modeling of these factors to predict how people will respond to diverse hurricane forecasts is quite complex. Given this context, the investigators attempt to answer some basic questions in a unified research framework such as (1) what is the link between objective hurricane forecast information and subjective risk perception, (2) how subjective risk perception and its interactions with other relevant factors affect evacuation behavior and (3) how observed (and intended) evacuation behavior deviates from optimal evacuation behavior. From a set of hurricane events that provide contrasting forecasts and timing scenarios, the investigators propose to model the difference between what would have been optimal evacuation and what is actually observed. Built on interdisciplinary knowledge from sociology, economics, meteorology, and media research on hurricane risk communication, the investigators propose to combine both descriptive (the way people actually behave) and prescriptive (the way people should behave under perfect information) approaches in a unified research framework to integrate user-specific cognitive and local risk information with objective scientific forecast information.Incorporating subjective risk perception in the modeling approach to provide realistic predictions of evacuation behavior will be useful to develop efficient risk management options in evacuation planning for reducing vulnerability against coastal hazards.

本项目的研究目标是模拟最佳疏散与实际观察到的疏散之间的差异。 了解疏散行为是应急管理机构规划难题的一部分，因为他们计划将大量人员从家中转移到更安全的地区。各种各样的因素（例如，预测的不确定性、预测信息的传输方式、风险感知和对人们自身准备能力的限制、交通工具和可接受的目的地）影响疏散行为。这些因素的综合建模，以预测人们将如何应对不同的飓风预报是相当复杂的。在这种背景下，研究人员试图在一个统一的研究框架中回答一些基本问题，例如（1）客观飓风预报信息和主观风险感知之间的联系，（2）主观风险感知及其与其他相关因素的相互作用如何影响疏散行为，以及（3）观察到的（和预期的）疏散行为如何偏离最佳疏散行为。从一组提供对比预测和时间情景的飓风事件中，研究人员建议对最佳疏散和实际观察到的情况之间的差异进行建模。建立在社会学、经济学、气象学和媒体对飓风风险沟通研究的跨学科知识基础上，调查人员建议将联合收割机（人们实际行为的方式）和规定性（人们在完美信息下的行为方式）方法在一个统一的研究框架中整合用户-具体的认知和局部风险信息与客观的科学预测信息。在建模方法中消除主观风险感知，以提供现实的预测疏散行为的研究将有助于在疏散规划中制定有效的风险管理方案，以减少对沿海灾害的脆弱性。