RCN: Forecasts Of Resource and Environmental Changes: data Assimilation Science and Technology (FORECAST)

RCN：资源和环境变化预测：数据同化科学与技术（FORECAST）

• 批准号: 0840964
• 负责人: Yiqi Luo
• 金额: $ 50万
• 依托单位: University of Oklahoma Norman Campus
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-07-15 至 2017-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0840964&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RCN; Forecasts; Resource; Environmental; Changes

There is an urgent need to develop the capability to forecast changes in our living environment and natural resources. This is a period marked by rapid climate change, profound alteration of biogeochemical cycles, excessive depletion of natural resources, extensive proliferation of exotic species, changes in frequency and spread of disease, and severe deterioration of air and water quality. Human populations are increasing at an alarming rate and society is becoming more dependent on extraction and utilization of natural resources to support regional and global economies. Continuous and accelerated supply rates of food, fiber, freshwater, and clean air are necessary to maintain healthy human societies. To effectively mitigate climate change impacts, manage natural resources, and curb environmental deterioration, we need to develop robust methods for forecasting ecosystem services. This project promotes networking activities that will develop, apply, and promote ecological forecasting using techniques that assimilate information from process-based models, prior knowledge, data and other sources (in short, data assimilation). The FORECAST network will organize a series of conferences and working groups to achieve those objectives. Overall, FORECAST has the potential to develop a multi-disciplinary community of scientists with expertise in data assimilation and ecological forecasting. Ecological forecasting is critical for resource management and climate change mitigation. The ability to forecast changes in natural resources and ecological properties, such as ecosystem production, biodiversity, and infectious diseases, will directly benefit the society. In addition, the FORECAST network will (i) involve many students, post-docs, and early-career scientists to enhance the development and propagation of new methodologies, (ii) develop web-based data portals for scientists to share techniques and ideas, (iii) stimulate interactions among ecologists, computer scientists, statisticians, and mathematicians, and (iv) provide broad multidisciplinary training for minority students and post-docs on data assimilation and ecological forecasting.

我们迫切需要发展预测我们生活环境和自然资源变化的能力。这是一个以气候迅速变化、生物地球化学循环深刻改变、自然资源过度消耗、外来物种广泛繁殖、疾病发生频率和传播变化以及空气和水质严重恶化为特征的时期。人口以惊人的速度增长，社会越来越依赖开采和利用自然资源来支持区域和全球经济。食物、纤维、淡水和清洁空气的持续和加速供应是维持人类社会健康所必需的。为了有效缓解气候变化的影响，管理自然资源，遏制环境恶化，我们需要开发可靠的方法来预测生态系统服务。 该项目促进联网活动，这些活动将利用从基于过程的模型、先前知识、数据和其他来源吸收信息的技术（简称数据同化），发展、应用和促进生态预报。FORECAST网络将组织一系列会议和工作组，以实现这些目标。总体而言，FORECAST有潜力发展一个多学科的科学家社区，具有数据同化和生态预测方面的专业知识。 生态预报对于资源管理和减缓气候变化至关重要。预测自然资源和生态特性（如生态系统生产、生物多样性和传染病）变化的能力将直接造福于社会。此外，FORECAST网络将（i）让许多学生、博士后和早期职业科学家参与，以加强新方法的开发和传播，（ii）开发基于网络的数据门户，供科学家分享技术和想法，（iii）促进生态学家、计算机科学家、统计学家和数学家之间的互动，为少数民族学生和博士后提供数据同化和生态预报方面的广泛的多学科培训。