SGER: Anatomy of the 2008 Iowa Flood: Exploring the Interplay Between Successive Storms and Basin Drainage Topology

对最近爱荷华州东部洪水之前的风暴的初步分析表明，并不是单一的极端风暴造成了洪水状况。相反，一系列风暴的影响是复合的，影响了盆地中较大河流沿岸的地区。我们建议研究：(1)引起爱荷华河沿岸洪水的风暴（或风暴群）特征之间的联系；(2)根据新的洪水地球物理理论的见解，风暴特性如何与流域尺度的洪水相关；(3)这里开发的方法是否可以利用Hydro推广到其他大型盆地？NEXRAD雷达?降雨数据集。我们的建议的紧迫性在于迫切需要了解其原因和影响。达到2008年爱荷华州洪水的影响。毫无疑问，地方当局和社区将关注我们的研究机构IIHR？爱荷华大学水文科学与工程学院，分析洪水事件，并为采取措施预防或减轻未来洪水的影响提供指导。虽然这一建议针对的是最近发生的一场持续不断的自然灾害，但它是基于我们对洪水地球物理理论的集体持续研究。智力价值：在过去的20年里，科罗拉多大学、爱荷华大学和其他机构的科学家们合作研究了一种新的洪水理论。这一理论的最新进展揭示了自我所起的重要作用。在确定峰值流量大小方面与河网结构相似。特别是，由河流网络的存在所施加的水流聚集模式，为理解类似于2008年6月爱荷华州东部的极端洪水事件的起源提供了明确的指导。该框架允许在一系列空间尺度上对洪水事件进行快速和有物理意义的分析，而无需求助于降雨。径流模型校准。更广泛的影响：这项工作可能会改变可能最大降水和可能最大洪水的概念及其在工程设计中的应用。该分析还将对全球气候变化提供重要见解。

Preliminary analysis of the storms preceding the recent Eastern Iowa floods have revealed that there was no single, extreme storm that was responsible for the flood conditions. Instead, the effect of a sequence of storms compounded, affecting locations along the larger rivers in the basin. We propose to investigate: (1) the link between the characteristics of the storms (or group of storms) that caused the floods along the Iowa River; (2) how storm properties are related to flooding as a function of basin scale, following insights from a new geophysical theory of floods; and (3) whether the methodologies developed here can be extended to other large basins using the Hydro?]NEXRAD radar?]rainfall dataset.The urgency of our proposal lies in the pressing need to understand the causes and far?]reaching effects of the 2008 Iowa flood. Undoubtedly, local authorities and communities will be looking to our research facility, IIHR?]Hydroscience and Engineering at The University of Iowa, to analyze the flooding events and offer guidance in adopting measures to prevent or mitigate the effect of future floods. While this proposal addresses a very recent, ongoing natural disaster, it is grounded in our collective, sustained work on the geophysical theory of floods.Intellectual Merit: Over the past 20 years, scientists at the University of Colorado, The University of Iowa, and other institutions have collaborated on a new theory of floods. Recent advances in this theory have revealed the important role played by the self?]similar structure of the river network in determining the magnitude of peak flows. In particular, flow aggregation patterns imposed by the presence of the river network provide explicit guidelines to understand the genesis of extreme flooding events similar to the ones in Eastern Iowa in June 2008. This framework allows rapid and physically meaningful analysis of flood events across a range of spatial scales, without the need to resort to rainfall?]runoff model calibration.Broader Impacts: This work could potentially change the concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Probable Maximum Flood and their use in engineering design. The analysis will also offer significant insight into our globally changing climate.