SGER: Anatomy of the 2008 Iowa Flood: Exploring the Interplay Between Successive Storms and Basin Drainage Topology

对最近爱荷华州东部洪水之前的风暴进行的初步分析表明，没有单一的极端风暴是造成洪水状况的原因。相反，一系列风暴的影响更加复杂，影响到了盆地中较大河流沿线的一些地方。我们建议调查：(1)导致爱荷华河沿岸洪水的风暴(或风暴群)特征之间的联系；(2)根据新的洪水地球物理理论，风暴特性如何与洪水作为流域规模的函数相关；以及(3)这里开发的方法是否可以使用Hydro？]NEXRAD雷达？]降雨数据扩展到其他大流域。我们建议的紧迫性在于迫切需要了解2008年爱荷华州洪水的原因和深远的影响。毫无疑问，地方当局和社区将期待我们的研究机构--爱荷华大学的水科学与工程研究所分析洪水事件，并为采取措施预防或减轻未来洪水的影响提供指导。虽然这项建议针对的是一场最近正在发生的自然灾害，但它是基于我们在洪水地球物理理论上的集体、持续的工作。智慧的优点：在过去的20年里，科罗拉多大学、爱荷华州大学和其他机构的科学家们在新的洪水理论上进行了合作。这一理论的最新进展揭示了河网的自相似结构在决定洪峰流量大小方面所起的重要作用。特别是，河流网络的存在强加的水流聚集模式为理解类似于2008年6月爱荷华州东部的极端洪水事件的成因提供了明确的指导方针。这一框架允许在一系列空间尺度上对洪水事件进行快速和有物理意义的分析，而无需求助于降雨？]径流模型校准。广泛的影响：这项工作可能会改变可能的最大降雨量和可能的最大洪水的概念及其在工程设计中的使用。这项分析还将为我们对全球气候变化提供重要的洞察。

Preliminary analysis of the storms preceding the recent Eastern Iowa floods have revealed that there was no single, extreme storm that was responsible for the flood conditions. Instead, the effect of a sequence of storms compounded, affecting locations along the larger rivers in the basin. We propose to investigate: (1) the link between the characteristics of the storms (or group of storms) that caused the floods along the Iowa River; (2) how storm properties are related to flooding as a function of basin scale, following insights from a new geophysical theory of floods; and (3) whether the methodologies developed here can be extended to other large basins using the Hydro?]NEXRAD radar?]rainfall dataset.The urgency of our proposal lies in the pressing need to understand the causes and far?]reaching effects of the 2008 Iowa flood. Undoubtedly, local authorities and communities will be looking to our research facility, IIHR?]Hydroscience and Engineering at The University of Iowa, to analyze the flooding events and offer guidance in adopting measures to prevent or mitigate the effect of future floods. While this proposal addresses a very recent, ongoing natural disaster, it is grounded in our collective, sustained work on the geophysical theory of floods.Intellectual Merit: Over the past 20 years, scientists at the University of Colorado, The University of Iowa, and other institutions have collaborated on a new theory of floods. Recent advances in this theory have revealed the important role played by the self?]similar structure of the river network in determining the magnitude of peak flows. In particular, flow aggregation patterns imposed by the presence of the river network provide explicit guidelines to understand the genesis of extreme flooding events similar to the ones in Eastern Iowa in June 2008. This framework allows rapid and physically meaningful analysis of flood events across a range of spatial scales, without the need to resort to rainfall?]runoff model calibration.Broader Impacts: This work could potentially change the concept of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Probable Maximum Flood and their use in engineering design. The analysis will also offer significant insight into our globally changing climate.