The Effects of Life Settlement on the Primary Life Insurance Market: Theory and Evidence

寿险保单行业是最近才出现的，从20世纪90年代末的几十亿美元增长到2007年的120 - 150亿美元，根据一些预测，预计未来十年将增长到1500亿美元以上。人寿保险结算是指人寿保险投保人将保单以高于人寿保险公司提供的现金退保价值的价格出售给第三方（人寿保险结算公司），第三方买方承担随后向人寿保险公司支付的所有保费，并在到期时（即原投保人死亡时）成为人寿保险单的新受益人的一种金融交易。寿险理赔行业源于初级寿险市场的两个关键特征。第一个特点是，人寿保险的保费通常是提前支付的，即保费在最初几年超过精算公平保费，而在后来几年，特别是在投保人健康受损的情况下，则低于精算公平保费。第二个特征是，人寿保险合同的现金退保值（CSV）对于定期保险要么为零，要么处于较低的水平，并且不依赖于保单持有人的健康状况。由于健康受损个人的人寿保险单目前的精算价值要高得多，因此，CSV没有对健康状况作出反应，这一事实为健康受损保单持有人与人寿保险结算公司之间的贸易收益提供了机会。寿险二级市场的兴起引发了寿险公司与寿险结算行业之间的争议。寿险公司反对人寿保险结算。鉴于寿险市场在经济中的重要性，有必要从理论和实证两方面认真研究新兴寿险理赔对初级寿险市场的影响。这项研究有两个目标。首先，研究者运用经济学理论分析了寿险二级市场对一级市场保险合同和消费者福利的影响。其次，对初级寿险市场如何应对理赔行业威胁的理论预测进行了实证检验。最后，他使用这些测试的结果来最终校准模型并量化生活定居产业的福利效应。特别是，在某种程度上，第一个问题的答案，特别是消费者福利问题，取决于保单持有人为什么失效，即，是由于遗赠动机的丧失还是由于流动性冲击，他还研究了保单持有人失效的原因。该研究项目将为政府更明智地监管生活定居行业提供知识知识。由于人寿保险是一种特殊类型的动态合约，该研究也可能为涉及一般动态合约的二级市场提供线索。

The life settlement industry is quite recent, growing from just a few billion dollars in late 1990s to about $12-$15 billion in 2007, and according to some projections, is expected to grow to more than $150 billion in the next decade. A life settlement is a financial transaction in which a life insurance policyholder sells the policy to a third party (a life settlement firm) for more than the cash surrender value offered by the life insurance company, thereby the third-party purchaser assumes responsibility for all subsequent premium payments to the life insurance company and becomes the new beneficiary of the life insurance policy at maturation (i.e., the time of the original policyholder's death).The life settlement industry results from two key features of the primary life insurance market. The first feature is that the premium for life insurance is typically front-loaded in the sense that the premium exceeds the actuarially fair premium in early years, while it is lower than the actuarially fair premium in latter years especially when the policyholder has impaired health. The second feature is that the cash surrender value (CSV) for life insurance contracts is either zero for Term insurance, or at a level that is low and does not depend on the health status of the policyholder. Because the present actuarial value of a life insurance policy is much higher for individuals with impaired health, the fact that the CSV does not respond to the health status provides an opening for the gains of trade between policyholders with impaired health and the life settlement companies.The emerging secondary market for life insurance has triggered controversies between life insurance companies and the life settlement industry. Life insurers are opposed to life settlements. Given the importance oflife insurance market in the economy, it is important to rigorously study, both theoretically and empirically, how the emerging life settlement may affect the primary life insurance market. This research has two goals. First, the researcher is using economic theory to analyze the effect of the secondary market for life insurance on primary market insurance contracts and on consumer welfare. Second, he conducts empirical tests of the theoretical predictions about how the primary life insurance market may respond to the threat from the settlement industry. Finally, he uses the results of these tests to ultimately calibrate the models and quantify the welfare effects of the life settlement industry. In particular, to the extent that the answer to the first question, particularly the consumer welfare question, depends on why policyholders lapse, i.e., whether it is due to loss of bequest motives or due to liquidity shocks, he also examines why policyholders lapse.The research project will provide the intellectual knowledge for more informed government regulation regarding the life settlement industry. Because life insurance is one special type of dynamic contracts, the research can also potentially shed light on the secondary market involving dynamic contracts in general.