Collaborative Research: P2C2 -- Connecting Common Era climate and sea level variability along the Eastern North American coastline

合作研究：P2C2——连接北美东部海岸线的共同时代气候和海平面变化

• 批准号: 1804999
• 负责人: Robert Kopp
• 金额: $ 17.73万
• 依托单位: Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-06-01 至 2022-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1804999&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; P2C2; Connecting; Common

Sea level along the eastern North American coastline is rising faster than global sea level and is expected to accelerate dramatically over the 21st century. The uncertainty and societal impact of this acceleration underscores the need for an improved understanding of relationships between regional sea level and climate. High-resolution sea level proxies spanning the past ~2,000 years (the "Common Era") reveal century-scale, decimeter-amplitude (up to ~20-cm), variability along the east coast associated with changes in dynamic sea level (DSL). These changes offer a unique benchmark for climate models, and the closest observational analog for climate-driven sea level change expected in the 21st century. This project will employ statistical and dynamical models to improve the scientific understanding of Common Era sea level changes along the east coast and their relationship with climate. The research team will leverage this knowledge to inform projections of 21st century DSL change and the ability of current-generation climate models to capture those changes, in turn informing coastal resilience efforts along the high-risk eastern North American coast. The project will provide funding and opportunities for an early career scientist and a graduate student to develop a diverse set of skills and collaborators in paleoclimate, climate modeling, and weather and climate risk assessment.The project team will confront the sparsity of the proxy record and the limitations of current-generation paleoclimate simulations by testing hypotheses about the drivers of sea level variability using a broad statistically- and dynamically-based modeling strategy. Project tasks include: (1) a rigorous assessment of the robustness of regional DSL reconstructions generated with a hierarchical spatio-temporal statistical framework; (2) leveraging the statistical framework to assess linkages between DSL and other climate indices (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, sea surface temperature and salinity, Intertropical Convergence Zone position); and (3) conducting and analyzing coupled climate model simulations. Climate model simulations will be forced by proxy-derived surface fluxes and validated by a synthesis of complementary climate reconstructions. The simulations will reveal the dynamical mechanisms underlying correlations found in reconstructions and demonstrate whether relationships observed in the instrumental record persist over multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. The research is expected to lead to a more complete interpretation of Common Era sea level and climate variability.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

北美东部海岸线的海平面上升速度快于全球海平面，预计在 21 世纪将急剧加速。这种加速的不确定性和社会影响强调需要更好地了解区域海平面与气候之间的关系。跨越过去约 2,000 年（“共同时代”）的高分辨率海平面代理揭示了与动态海平面 (DSL) 变化相关的东海岸百年尺度、分米幅度（高达约 20 厘米）的变化。这些变化为气候模型提供了独特的基准，并为 21 世纪气候驱动的海平面变化提供了最接近的观测模拟。该项目将采用统计和动力学模型来提高对东海岸沿岸海平面变化及其与气候关系的科学认识。研究团队将利用这些知识来预测 21 世纪 DSL 变化以及当前一代气候模型捕捉这些变化的能力，进而为高风险北美东部海岸的沿海恢复工作提供信息。该项目将为早期职业科学家和研究生提供资金和机会，以培养古气候、气候建模以及天气和气候风险评估方面的多种技能和合作者。项目团队将通过使用广泛的基于统计和动态的建模策略来测试有关海平面变化驱动因素的假设，以应对代理记录的稀疏性和当代古气候模拟的局限性。项目任务包括：（1）对使用分层时空统计框架生成的区域 DSL 重建的稳健性进行严格评估； (2) 利用统计框架评估 DSL 与其他气候指数（例如北大西洋涛动、大西洋经向翻转环流、海面温度和盐度、热带辐合带位置）之间的联系； (3) 进行和分析耦合气候模型模拟。气候模型模拟将受到代理导出的表面通量的推动，并通过补充气候重建的综合进行验证。模拟将揭示重建中发现的相关性背后的动力机制，并证明仪器记录中观察到的关系是否在数十年到百年的时间尺度上持续存在。该研究预计将导致对公元纪元海平面和气候变化的更完整的解释。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Relative sea-level change in Newfoundland, Canada during the past ∼3000 years

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.10.012
• 发表时间: 2018-12
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: A. Kemp;A. Wright;R. Edwards;R. Barnett;M. Brain;Robert E Kopp;N. Cahill;B. Horton;D. Charman;A. Hawkes;T. Hill;O. van de Plassche

Incorporating temporal and spatial variability of salt-marsh foraminifera into sea-level reconstructions

将盐沼有孔虫的时间和空间变化纳入海平面重建

• DOI: 10.1016/j.margeo.2020.106293
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Marine Geology
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Walker, Jennifer S.;Cahill, Niamh;Khan, Nicole S.;Shaw, Timothy A.;Barber, Don;Miller, Kenneth G.;Kopp, Robert E.;Horton, Benjamin P.
• 通讯作者: Horton, Benjamin P.