Collaborative Research: Inflation and Redistribution

合作研究：通货膨胀与再分配

• 批准号: 0904490
• 负责人: Klaus Martin Schneider
• 金额: $ 7.66万
• 依托单位: National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2008-07-15 至 2011-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0904490&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Inflation; Redistribution

This proposal outlines research on the redistribution effects of inflation. Redistribution of real wealth is an immediate consequence of any unanticipated change in the price level. Inflation lowers the real value of nominal assets and liabilities, and thereby shifts wealth from lenders to borrowers. Existing studies have focused on the revaluation of government debt. The research described in this proposal considers the revaluation of all nominal assets and liabilities in the economy. The goal is to provide a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the redistribution effects of inflation, as well as their implications for macroeconomic aggregates and welfare.The intellectual merit of the proposed activity is that it enhances our understanding of the real effects of inflation. The proposal achieves this objective by employing two analytical tools. The first is an empirical framework used to document exposure to inflation risk in the United States, for different sectors as well as age and wealth groups of households. The framework combines sectoral data from the Flow of Funds Accounts, household-level data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, as well as data on the payoff structure and market prices of nominal assets to construct a consistent array of nominal positions. To gauge the duration of these positions, future payment streams are estimated by date, agent, and type of nominal instrument. The second tool is a dynamic general equilibrium model that can be used to assess the economic effects of redistribution shocks. The model allows for heterogeneity along the same dimensions as the data; it is calibrated to match key macroeconomic aggregates as well as properties of the wealth and income distribution. It can also accommodate various fiscal policy scenarios that may arise in response to an inflation episode. The proposal describes an application that uses the tools to quantify the wealth redistribution that would occur if the United States were to enter another moderate inflation episode similar to that of the 1970s. This application leads to three main results. First, even moderate inflation can cause a sizable redistribution of wealth. The main winners from inflation would be the government and young households with mortgage debt, while the main losers would be old households and, in light of the recent surge in foreign debt, foreigners. Second, the model shows that the responses of losers (old lenders) and winners (young borrowers) do not cancel out, so that redistribution due to inflation has aggregate effects. The magnitude of these effects is comparable to those in representative-agent models with monetary frictions, but the effects arising from redistribution persist long after the end of the inflation episode. Third, the welfare effect on domestic households is the opposite of what standard monetary models generate: inflation-induced redistribution has a positive effect on the weighted aggregate welfare. Overall, the application demonstrates that redistribution is an important channel for the impact of inflation on household behavior, economic aggregates, and welfare. The broader impact of the proposed research derives from its implications for monetary policy, as well as the design of institutions that help control inflation. The existing application shows that households have important reasons to disagree about monetary policy. The proposal describes a number of additional policy applications. First, the setup will be used to assess the redistribution effects of stabilization policy. Here the objective is to quantify the wealth effects of U.S. monetary policy in the 1980s. A second extension will explore the political economy implications of the findings. The existing results show that there are circumstances such that a majority of households stands to gain from inflation-induced redistribution. Moreover, the fiscal policy package that accompanies an inflationary episode is a key factor in shaping public support for inflation policies. The proposal outlines an empirical investigation of the degree to which redistribution concerns can explain the emergence of historical episodes of high inflation, as well as an extended theoretical analysis of the political economy of inflation.

本提案概述了关于通货膨胀再分配效应的研究。实际财富的再分配是物价水平任何意外变化的直接后果。通货膨胀降低了名义资产和负债的实际价值，从而将财富从贷款人转移到借款人手中。现有的研究集中在政府债务的重估上。本提案中描述的研究考虑了经济中所有名义资产和负债的重估。其目标是对通货膨胀的再分配影响及其对宏观经济总量和福利的影响进行全面的定量评估。这一拟议活动的学术价值在于，它增强了我们对通胀实际影响的理解。该提案通过采用两种分析工具来实现这一目标。第一个是一个实证框架，用于记录美国不同行业以及家庭年龄和财富群体的通胀风险敞口。该框架结合了来自资金账户流动的部门数据，来自消费者财务调查的家庭层面数据，以及关于名义资产的支付结构和市场价格的数据，以构建一致的名义头寸数组。为了衡量这些头寸的持续时间，未来的支付流是根据日期、代理人和名义工具的类型来估计的。第二个工具是动态一般均衡模型，可用于评估再分配冲击的经济影响。该模型允许在与数据相同的维度上存在异质性；它经过校准，以匹配关键的宏观经济总量以及财富和收入分配的属性。它还可以适应为应对通胀而可能出现的各种财政政策情景。该提案描述了一个应用程序，该应用程序使用这些工具来量化如果美国进入另一个类似于20世纪70年代的温和通胀时期将发生的财富再分配。这个应用程序导致三个主要结果。首先，即使是温和的通货膨胀也会导致相当大的财富再分配。通货膨胀的主要赢家将是政府和有抵押贷款债务的年轻家庭，而主要输家将是老年家庭，鉴于最近外债激增，主要输家是外国人。其次，该模型表明，输家（老贷款人）和赢家（年轻借款人）的反应不会相互抵消，因此，由通胀引起的再分配具有总体效应。这些影响的程度与货币摩擦的代表性代理模型相当，但再分配产生的影响在通货膨胀时期结束后仍会持续很长时间。第三，对家庭的福利效应与标准货币模型产生的效应相反：通胀引发的再分配对加权总福利有积极影响。总体而言，该应用表明，再分配是通货膨胀对家庭行为、经济总量和福利影响的重要渠道。拟议研究的更广泛影响来自于它对货币政策的启示，以及有助于控制通胀的机构设计。现有的应用表明，家庭有重要的理由对货币政策持不同意见。该提案描述了许多附加的策略应用程序。首先，该设置将用于评估稳定政策的再分配效果。本文的目标是量化20世纪80年代美国货币政策的财富效应。第二个扩展部分将探讨这些发现的政治经济学含义。现有的结果表明，在某些情况下，大多数家庭将从通胀引发的再分配中获益。此外，伴随通胀事件而来的一揽子财政政策，是影响公众对通胀政策支持的关键因素。该提案概述了对再分配问题在多大程度上可以解释历史上高通胀事件的出现的实证调查，以及对通胀的政治经济学的扩展理论分析。