Collaborative Research: Development of a Technology for Real Time, Ex Ante Forecasting of Intra and International Conflict and Cooperation

该奖项是根据2009年美国复苏和再投资法案（公法111-5）资助的。冲突继续在黎凡特、南亚和其他地方肆虐。政府、非政府组织和政府间组织正在寻求一种技术，帮助它们预测暴力的爆发。在预测未来两年的单一事件和政治不稳定方面取得了一些进展。但是，我们缺乏科学可靠的工具来衡量这些和其他预测的统计不确定性，进行实时预测，分析交战团体的行为，以及进行偶然预测（以第三方可能的干预为条件的预测）。我们开发了一种科学先进的技术来满足这些需求：一种工具，可以在一个开源网站上实时、预先预测世界三个地区的国内和国际冲突与合作。时间序列数据由最先进的TABARI自动编码软件生成，使用CAMEO事件和参与者编码系统；来源是新闻提要聚合器，如谷歌news和europe Monitor，通过真正简单的联合提要（RSS）访问。采用马尔可夫切换的贝叶斯多变量时间序列模型拟合这些数据。然后，这些模型为有向二元行为系统产生预测概率密度。模型性能基于密度评价；通过开发的再校准方法对模型进行了改进。该网站将报告对黎凡特、南亚和东亚交战方选定系统的预测；它将传播编码事件数据、对这些情况的实时预测以及预测不确定性的措施、基于可能干预的偶然预测、关于模型性能的信息。这项技术将满足国际关系预测的大部分需求，如果不是全部的话。有三个具体的贡献。首先，论证了实时事件自动编码的可行性和价值。到目前为止，这种编码已经滞后于实时性；数据的价值还没有实现。将目前的统计工作应用于预测是第二个贡献。在政治学中，我们首次产生并评估密度（而非点）预测。我们用新开发的再校准技术来改进我们的预测模型。第三，我们明确分析了众所周知的冲突和合作相移趋势，并将其纳入我们的预测。我们模型的马尔可夫开关元件捕捉了这些非线性。使用Teragrid，我们产生占据某些状态的行为系统的概率加权预测，报告转移概率，并包括对两者的不确定性的估计。因此，最终的预测模型将是国际关系中的原创模型。我们制作的预测将供非政府组织、政府间组织以及任何对黎凡特、南亚和东亚地区的冲突有兴趣的各方使用。为了帮助这些团体使用我们的预测，我们将在A.P.S.A、I.S.A和I.P.S.A.举行的会议上发表演讲。我们也将通过中央研究院等机构在台湾等国家展示我们的工作并宣传我们的网站。最终，我们的网站将根据学者和政策制定者对某些干预措施在短期内会发生什么的预测，报告可能的预测。对相移概率和预测密度的估计将伴随着这些偶然的预测。

This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).Conflicts continue to rage in the Levant, South Asia, and elsewhere. Governmental, nongovernmental, and intergovernmental organizations are seeking a technology that will help them anticipate the outbreak of violence. Some progress has been made predicting single events and political instability two years ahead. But we lack scientifically sound tools for gauging the statistical uncertainty of these and other forecasts, making predictions in real-time, analyzing the behavior of groups of belligerents, and making contingent forecasts (forecasts conditional on possible interventions by third parties). We develop a scientifically advanced technology that meets these desiderata: a tool that produces on an open source website in real-time, ex ante forecasts of intra- and international conflict and cooperation for three parts of the world. The time series data is produced by state-of-the art TABARI automated coding software using the CAMEO event and actor coding system; the source are news feed aggregators such as Google News and the European Monitor accessed via real simple syndication feeds (RSS). Bayesian multivariate time series models with Markov-switching are fit to these data. These models then produce forecast probability densities for systems of directed dyadic behaviors. Model performance is based on density evaluation; model refinements are made via developed recalibration methods. The website will report forecasts for selected systems of belligerents in the Levant, South Asia, and East Asia; it will disseminate the coded event data, real-time forecasts of these cases with measures of forecast uncertainty, contingent forecasts based on possible interventions, information on model performance. The technology will meet most, if not all, of the desiderata for forecasting in international relations. Three specific contributions are be made. First, the feasibility and value of automated real-time events coding is demonstrated. Until now, this coding has lagged real-time; and the value of the data has not been realized. The application of current statistical work on forecasting is a second contribution. For the first time in political science we produce and evaluate density (not point) forecasts. And we refine our forecasting models with newly developed recalibration techniques. Third, the well known tendency for conflict and cooperation phase shifts are explicitly analyzed and incorporated in our forecasts. The Markov-switching element of our model capture these nonlinearities. Using the Teragrid we produce probability weighted forecasts of behavioral systems occupying certain states, report transition probabilities, and include estimates of the uncertainty of both. Thus the final forecasting models will be original in international relations. The forecasts we produce will be available for use by NGOs, IGOs, and any party interested in anticipating conflict in the Levant, South Asia, and East Asia. To help these parties use our forecasts we will make presentations at meetings held by the A.P.S.A, I.S.A, and I.P.S.A. We also will present our work and publicize our website in countries like Taiwan via institutions like the Academia Sinica. Eventually, our website will report contingent forecasts based on inputs from scholars and policy makers' forecasts of what will transpire in the short-term if certain kinds of intervention occur. Estimates of the probability of phase shifts and of forecast densities will accompany these contingent forecasts.