Doctoral Dissertation Research in Political Science: Vote-Buying and Political Preferences in Africa

政治学博士论文研究：非洲的买票和政治偏好

• 批准号: 1122700
• 负责人: Daniel Posner
• 金额: $ 1.18万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-01 至 2012-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1122700&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Political; Science

The distribution of small material resources by politicians to voters during election campaigns, often in the form of money, food, beer, or clothing, has long been common in many democracies around the world. These activities typically go by the name of vote buying. Where ballot secrecy is not legislated or enforced, buying votes can be effective because politicians can enforce vote-buying bargains. In some settings, however, vote-buying persists despite the secret ballot. In Kenya, over 40 percent of voters in some areas received money before the 2007 election; yet the ballot is formally secret, parties lack the capacity to monitor voters, and large majorities believe that powerful people cannot figure out how they voted. Vote buying in Kenya is puzzling. It is even more puzzling because Africans and Kenyans in particular are often said to vote ethnically. If African voters vote ethnically, as the conventional wisdom suggests, why must their votes also be bought? To understand vote buying in the African context, this project develops a fuller understanding of how vote buying influences the preferences and expectations of recipients and observers. Indeed, despite the prevalence of vote-buying in many settings, there is little systematic evidence documenting its impact on support for and perceptions of politicians. This project provides such evidence while addressing largely unanswered questions: Is vote buying effective in building support for politicians? If so, with whom is vote buying effective, and why? Answering these questions is difficult with survey data for at least two reasons. First, because of embarrassment or fear, many survey respondents are unwilling to respond honestly to survey questions about vote buying, which biases the surveys. Second, different theories of vote buying predict outcomes that are observationally equivalent in survey data. To avoid these problems, this study conducts field experiments in Kenya. The experiments will present participants with artificial, but realistic, audio recordings discussing hypothetical political candidates, varying only the inclusion of subtle references to the politician's vote-buying behavior in the recordings heard by randomly selected treatment groups. Follow-up questions will gauge support for and perceptions of the politicians discussed in the recording, and will yield a dataset with which to analyze and measure vote buying's impact on voter support for and perceptions of politicians across a number of key dimensions. The artificiality of the experiment provides the control necessary to test competing theories. Moreover, the use of recordings allows the investigator to gain subtlety in referring to vote buying. The intellectual merit of this project lies in its capacity to advance understanding of the workings of the critical democratic process of elections in Africa. The project illuminates in particular the widespread and puzzling phenomenon of vote buying. By contributing to our understanding of whether and why vote buying is effective, the project enhances knowledge of when and why democratic elections do--and do not--yield responsive and accountable government.The broader implications of the project are tied to its intellectual contributions. The project can inform the design of policies and programs seeking to promote the responsiveness and accountability of governments to their citizens.

政治家在竞选活动中向选民分配少量物质资源，通常是金钱、食物、啤酒或衣服，这在世界各地的许多民主国家都很常见。这些活动通常被称为购买选票。在投票保密没有立法或强制执行的地方，购买选票可能是有效的，因为政客可以执行购买选票的交易。然而，在某些情况下，尽管进行了无记名投票，收买选票的行为仍然存在。在肯尼亚，一些地区超过40%的选民在2007年选举前收到了钱;然而，投票是正式秘密的，政党缺乏监督选民的能力，而且大多数人认为有权势的人不知道他们是如何投票的。在肯尼亚买选票令人费解。更令人费解的是，非洲人，尤其是肯尼亚人，经常被认为是按种族投票的。如果非洲选民像传统智慧所建议的那样按种族投票，为什么他们的选票也必须被收买？为了了解非洲背景下的买票现象，本项目更全面地了解买票如何影响接受者和观察者的偏好和期望。事实上，尽管收买选票在许多情况下普遍存在，但几乎没有系统的证据证明其对政治家的支持和看法的影响。这个项目提供了这样的证据，同时解决了很大程度上没有答案的问题：购买选票在建立对政客的支持方面是否有效？如果是这样，谁是有效的购买选票，为什么？用调查数据回答这些问题很困难，原因至少有两个。首先，由于尴尬或恐惧，许多调查受访者不愿意诚实地回答有关购买选票的调查问题，这使调查产生了偏见。第二，不同的收买选票理论预测的结果在调查数据中是观察上等同的。为了避免这些问题，本研究在肯尼亚进行了田间试验。实验将向参与者提供人工但真实的讨论假设政治候选人的录音，只是在随机选择的治疗组听到的录音中包含对政治家购买选票行为的微妙提及。后续问题将衡量对录音中讨论的政治家的支持和看法，并将产生一个数据集，用于分析和衡量购买选票对选民支持的影响，以及对政治家在许多关键方面的看法。实验的人为性为检验相互竞争的理论提供了必要的控制。此外，录音的使用使调查人员在提到买票时更加微妙。该项目的知识价值在于它能够促进对非洲选举这一关键民主进程运作方式的了解。该项目特别阐明了广泛而令人困惑的买票现象。通过帮助我们了解收买选票是否有效以及为什么有效，该项目增进了对民主选举何时以及为何产生顺应民意和负责任的政府的了解，该项目的更广泛影响与其智力贡献有关。该项目可以为政策和方案的设计提供信息，这些政策和方案旨在促进政府对公民的回应和问责。