Doctoral Dissertation Research: Climate Science, Insurance, and the Modeling of Coastal Risk

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Human-related climate change brings with it the possibility of more severe tropical cyclones and storm surges as well as the promise of higher sea levels and increasingly vulnerable coastal populations. These prospects pose enormous problems for insurers and reinsurers by increasing their exposure to sudden catastrophic loss on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. The situation creates practical problems for insurers underwriting weather or property risks, because actuarial tables based on historical event frequencies cannot project risk forward in a changing climate system. For such risk projections, the insurance and reinsurance industries have come to rely on the expertise of climate scientists rather than actuaries. This doctoral dissertation research project will examine how an organized science like climatology is reoriented to serve the specific needs of the private sector, how scientists and universities become involved in these projects, and what material and geographic consequences may result for insured property and populations. The doctoral student will address these questions using methods that include in-depth interviews with hurricane scientists, risk modelers, insurers, and reinsurers; extensive observation at scientific and industry conferences; and statistical analysis of economic and demographic data. An additional component of this research will be a case study of the economic and regulatory debates regarding how tropical cyclone risk should be measured and managed in the state of Florida.The project will examine the roles of scientists and insurers in the transformation of risk management as society faces an increasingly uncertain future climate. The researchers expect to demonstrate the importance of the property insurance sector in reorganizing the built environment in response to climate change. The project also will investigate the effects of new risk modeling and pricing practices on the geographic and socioeconomic distribution of insurance coverage. It will assess the magnitude and geography of the insurance affordability problem, which has thus far only been roughly estimated and acknowledged amidst larger policy proposals for market-based property insurance overhaul. The knowledge of how storm vulnerabilities are differentially distributed among the population through geography, class, and other social structures will better inform assessments of climate change adaptation, loss mitigation projects, and post-storm rebuilding and relief efforts. The project's results will have implications beyond the immediate regional context of the American Southeast, as the global community increasingly relies on the expert opinions of scientists and the entrepreneurial endeavors of the private sector to guide its response to climate change. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.