Doctoral Dissertation Research: Climate Science, Insurance, and the Modeling of Coastal Risk

博士论文研究：气候科学、保险和沿海风险建模

• 批准号: 0928711
• 负责人: Michael Watts
• 金额: $ 1.5万
• 依托单位: University of California-Berkeley
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-08-01 至 2012-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0928711&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Climate; Science

Human-related climate change brings with it the possibility of more severe tropical cyclones and storm surges as well as the promise of higher sea levels and increasingly vulnerable coastal populations. These prospects pose enormous problems for insurers and reinsurers by increasing their exposure to sudden catastrophic loss on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars. The situation creates practical problems for insurers underwriting weather or property risks, because actuarial tables based on historical event frequencies cannot project risk forward in a changing climate system. For such risk projections, the insurance and reinsurance industries have come to rely on the expertise of climate scientists rather than actuaries. This doctoral dissertation research project will examine how an organized science like climatology is reoriented to serve the specific needs of the private sector, how scientists and universities become involved in these projects, and what material and geographic consequences may result for insured property and populations. The doctoral student will address these questions using methods that include in-depth interviews with hurricane scientists, risk modelers, insurers, and reinsurers; extensive observation at scientific and industry conferences; and statistical analysis of economic and demographic data. An additional component of this research will be a case study of the economic and regulatory debates regarding how tropical cyclone risk should be measured and managed in the state of Florida.The project will examine the roles of scientists and insurers in the transformation of risk management as society faces an increasingly uncertain future climate. The researchers expect to demonstrate the importance of the property insurance sector in reorganizing the built environment in response to climate change. The project also will investigate the effects of new risk modeling and pricing practices on the geographic and socioeconomic distribution of insurance coverage. It will assess the magnitude and geography of the insurance affordability problem, which has thus far only been roughly estimated and acknowledged amidst larger policy proposals for market-based property insurance overhaul. The knowledge of how storm vulnerabilities are differentially distributed among the population through geography, class, and other social structures will better inform assessments of climate change adaptation, loss mitigation projects, and post-storm rebuilding and relief efforts. The project's results will have implications beyond the immediate regional context of the American Southeast, as the global community increasingly relies on the expert opinions of scientists and the entrepreneurial endeavors of the private sector to guide its response to climate change. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.

与人类有关的气候变化可能带来更严重的热带气旋和风暴潮，并可能导致海平面上升和沿海人口日益脆弱。 这些前景给保险公司和再保险公司带来了巨大的问题，因为它们面临着数千亿美元的突然灾难性损失。 这种情况给承保天气或财产风险的保险公司带来了实际问题，因为基于历史事件频率的精算表无法在不断变化的气候系统中预测风险。 对于这种风险预测，保险和再保险行业已经开始依赖气候科学家的专业知识，而不是精算师。 这个博士论文研究项目将研究如何像气候学有组织的科学是重新定位，以服务于私营部门的具体需求，科学家和大学如何参与这些项目，以及什么材料和地理后果可能会导致保险财产和人口。 博士生将使用包括与飓风科学家，风险建模师，保险公司和再保险公司深入访谈的方法来解决这些问题;在科学和行业会议上进行广泛观察;以及对经济和人口数据的统计分析。 这项研究的另一个组成部分将是一个案例研究的经济和监管辩论如何衡量和管理热带气旋的风险，在佛罗里达州。该项目将审查科学家和保险公司的作用，在风险管理的转变，因为社会面临着越来越不确定的未来气候。 研究人员希望证明财产保险部门在重组建筑环境以应对气候变化方面的重要性。 该项目还将调查新的风险建模和定价实践对保险覆盖范围的地理和社会经济分布的影响。 它将评估保险负担能力问题的严重性和地理位置，到目前为止，这一问题只是在基于市场的财产保险改革的更大政策建议中得到粗略估计和承认。 了解风暴脆弱性如何通过地理、阶级和其他社会结构在人口中有差异地分布，将更好地为气候变化适应、减轻损失项目以及风暴后重建和救济工作的评估提供信息。 该项目的结果将产生超越美国东南部直接区域背景的影响，因为全球社会越来越依赖科学家的专家意见和私营部门的创业努力来指导其应对气候变化。 作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立的研究生涯。