Collaborative Proposal; Environment, Society, and Economy: Modeling New Behaviors Emerging from Coupling Physical Coastal Processes and Coastal Economies

协作提案；

• 批准号: 0952120
• 负责人: Dylan McNamara
• 金额: $ 10.01万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina at Wilmington
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-07-01 至 2014-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0952120&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Proposal; Environment; Society; Economy

Human activities increasingly influence landscape change in many environments, both directly through construction and agricultural activities and indirectly through changes to the natural processes that shape landscapes. In turn, the processes that shape landscapes affect humans, often posing natural hazards. In coastal environments these two-way interactions involve coastal erosion, which threatens coastal communities, and shoreline-stabilization efforts, which affect the evolution of the surrounding coastline. Previous numerical modeling has shown that localized shoreline stabilization efforts, such as nourishing beaches by adding sand, can alter shoreline erosion rates even in distant parts of a coastline. Thus, a coastal community that chooses to stabilize its shoreline inadvertently affects other communities, so that the economies and management of coastal communities are linked. This research will use numerical modeling to address the kinds of coupled environmental and economic patterns that emerge under different decision-making regimes. An economic component to the numerical modeling, based on an empirical relationship between property values and beach width, determines the beach replenishment strategy that optimizes the net benefits to an individual community. Coupling this model to a coastline-change model reveals the unexpected ways that communities unwittingly interact with one another, and the feedbacks that induce some communities to shoulder more of the shoreline stabilization effort than others. In contrast, a different economic-model approach will analyze what pattern of beach replenishment would maximize the net benefits of a stretch of coastline more holistically. This project will investigate the different patterns of coastline change and economic benefits these approaches would produce under different scenarios for: 1) sea-level rise; 2) changing storm climate; 3) coastline physical and economic attributes; and 4) diminishing common-pool sand resources and the associated increase in the price of beach replenishment. Changes in coastal environments can no longer be understood by considering either physical or economic processes in isolation; this research provides a necessary step toward understanding the dynamics of developed coastlines?what causes the patterns of shoreline erosion and economic impacts under various possible futures (given uncertainties in climate change and economic driving factors including sand resources). The results of computer-model experiments testing how coordinated planning for shoreline stabilization could increase net wealth will not only increase basic knowledge about how coupled human/landscape systems work, but it could lead to improvements in coastal management strategies.

人类活动越来越多地影响许多环境中的景观变化，既直接通过建筑和农业活动，也间接通过改变塑造景观的自然过程。反过来，塑造景观的过程也会影响人类，常常造成自然灾害。在沿海环境中，这些双向相互作用涉及威胁沿海社区的海岸侵蚀和影响周围海岸线演变的海岸线稳定工作。先前的数值模型表明，局部海岸线稳定工作（例如通过添加沙子来滋养海滩）可以改变海岸线侵蚀率，即使在海岸线的偏远地区也是如此。因此，一个沿海社区选择稳定其海岸线，无意中影响了其他社区，从而使沿海社区的经济和管理联系在一起。 这项研究将使用数值模型来解决不同决策制度下出现的环境和经济耦合模式。数值模型的经济组成部分基于财产价值和海滩宽度之间的经验关系，确定了优化单个社区净收益的海滩补给策略。将该模型与海岸线变化模型结合起来，揭示了社区在不知不觉中彼此互动的意想不到的方式，以及促使某些社区比其他社区承担更多海岸线稳定工作的反馈。相比之下，不同的经济模型方法将分析哪种海滩补给模式可以更全面地最大化一段海岸线的净效益。该项目将研究海岸线变化的不同模式以及这些方法在不同情景下产生的经济效益：1）海平面上升； 2）不断变化的风暴气候； 3）海岸线物理和经济属性； 4）公共池沙资源的减少以及海滩补给价格的相应增加。不能再通过孤立地考虑物理或经济过程来理解沿海环境的变化；这项研究为了解发达海岸线的动态提供了必要的一步？在各种可能的未来（考虑到气候变化和包括沙子资源在内的经济驱动因素的不确定性）下，是什么导致了海岸线侵蚀的模式和经济影响。计算机模型实验的结果测试了海岸线稳定的协调规划如何增加净财富，不仅会增加有关人类/景观系统如何运作的基本知识，而且可能会导致沿海管理策略的改进。