Collaborative Proposal; Environment, Society, and Economy: Modeling New Behaviors Emerging from Coupling Physical Coastal Processes and Coastal Economies

人类活动越来越多地影响许多环境中的景观变化，直接通过建筑和农业活动，间接通过改变形成景观的自然过程。反过来，塑造景观的过程影响到人类，往往造成自然灾害。在沿海环境中，这种双向的相互作用包括海岸侵蚀，威胁沿海社区，以及海岸线稳定工作，影响周围海岸线的演变。以前的数值模拟表明，局部的海岸线稳定措施，如通过增加沙子来滋养海滩，可以改变海岸线的侵蚀率，即使是在海岸线的偏远地区。因此，沿海社区如果选择稳定其海岸线，就会在无意中影响到其他社区，从而使沿海社区的经济和管理联系在一起。 这项研究将使用数值模拟来解决各种耦合的环境和经济模式下出现不同的决策制度。经济成分的数值模拟，根据房地产价值和海滩宽度之间的经验关系，确定海滩补给策略，优化净效益的个人社区。将此模型与海岸线变化模型相结合，揭示了社区无意中相互作用的意想不到的方式，以及促使一些社区承担更多海岸线稳定工作的反馈。相反，一种不同的经济模型方法将更全面地分析什么样的海滩补给模式会使一段海岸线的净效益最大化。本项目将调查这些方法在不同情景下产生的海岸线变化和经济效益的不同模式：1）海平面上升; 2）风暴气候变化; 3）海岸线物理和经济属性; 4）共同池沙资源减少和海滩补给价格的相关增加。沿海环境的变化不能再孤立地考虑物理或经济过程来理解;这项研究为了解发达海岸线的动态提供了必要的一步。在各种可能的未来情况下（考虑到气候变化的不确定性和包括沙资源在内的经济驱动因素），是什么导致了海岸线侵蚀的模式和经济影响。计算机模型实验的结果，测试如何协调规划海岸线稳定可以增加净财富，不仅增加基本知识如何耦合人类/景观系统的工作，但它可能会导致沿海管理战略的改进。

Human activities increasingly influence landscape change in many environments, both directly through construction and agricultural activities and indirectly through changes to the natural processes that shape landscapes. In turn, the processes that shape landscapes affect humans, often posing natural hazards. In coastal environments these two-way interactions involve coastal erosion, which threatens coastal communities, and shoreline-stabilization efforts, which affect the evolution of the surrounding coastline. Previous numerical modeling has shown that localized shoreline stabilization efforts, such as nourishing beaches by adding sand, can alter shoreline erosion rates even in distant parts of a coastline. Thus, a coastal community that chooses to stabilize its shoreline inadvertently affects other communities, so that the economies and management of coastal communities are linked. This research will use numerical modeling to address the kinds of coupled environmental and economic patterns that emerge under different decision-making regimes. An economic component to the numerical modeling, based on an empirical relationship between property values and beach width, determines the beach replenishment strategy that optimizes the net benefits to an individual community. Coupling this model to a coastline-change model reveals the unexpected ways that communities unwittingly interact with one another, and the feedbacks that induce some communities to shoulder more of the shoreline stabilization effort than others. In contrast, a different economic-model approach will analyze what pattern of beach replenishment would maximize the net benefits of a stretch of coastline more holistically. This project will investigate the different patterns of coastline change and economic benefits these approaches would produce under different scenarios for: 1) sea-level rise; 2) changing storm climate; 3) coastline physical and economic attributes; and 4) diminishing common-pool sand resources and the associated increase in the price of beach replenishment. Changes in coastal environments can no longer be understood by considering either physical or economic processes in isolation; this research provides a necessary step toward understanding the dynamics of developed coastlines?what causes the patterns of shoreline erosion and economic impacts under various possible futures (given uncertainties in climate change and economic driving factors including sand resources). The results of computer-model experiments testing how coordinated planning for shoreline stabilization could increase net wealth will not only increase basic knowledge about how coupled human/landscape systems work, but it could lead to improvements in coastal management strategies.