Collaborative Proposal: MSB-FRA: Causes, consequences, and cross-scale linkages of environment-driven phenological mismatch across three trophic levels

季节性事件的时间和同步性给自然界带来了真正的挑战。候鸟协调它们从中美洲或南美洲的越冬地出发，在适当的时间到达北美的繁殖地。过早的话，它们可能会遭遇晚霜或暴风雪等恶劣天气。太迟了，它们可能会错过早春昆虫的高峰期，而它们依赖昆虫来成功地养育后代。对蝴蝶这样的昆虫来说，当它们的出现与春季新植物生长的高峰期同时出现时，它们也会受益。近年来，春天的时间已经提前了，这增加了鸟类、昆虫和植物在春天的时间不匹配的可能性。一些局部规模的研究表明，这种不匹配可能导致某些物种的长期种群数量下降，但这个问题的程度，特别是在大片地区，仍然未知。在这个项目中，研究小组将结合春季天气信息、植物发芽的卫星图像，以及鸟类、蝴蝶和毛虫的多个大规模公民科学数据，对相互作用物种之间的季节时间不匹配进行综合评估。这项工作对于理解季节性持续变化对生命系统的潜在影响至关重要。这项工作还将通过一个新的公民科学项目、教育单位和以了解季节变化时间为重点的外展活动，吸引k大学的学生和公众。拟议的研究将是第一次尝试在半大陆范围内检查三个营养水平的物候不匹配。局部尺度的研究已经记录了物候错配的具体实例，但未能告知错配后果如何在空间、时间或营养尺度上传播。鸟类和蝴蝶提供了最广泛，长期和详细的宏观生态数据集的分布，多样性和人口统计。该项目将把这些分类群的多个大规模公民科学数据集与有针对性的野外数据收集、遥感气候和植被数据层结合起来，研究与热环境变化、物候失配和适应性后果相关的跨尺度和多营养相互作用。这将通过以下方式实现：(1)收集和统一鳞翅目和鸟类的大陆和区域监测和公民科学数据库；(2)建立时空模型，以评估物候的驱动因素，计算不同营养水平物候不匹配的直接指标，并评估这些不匹配的适合度和种群后果；(3)通过三营养物候不匹配的函数，测试所生成模型预测北美东部焦点鸟类和鳞翅目物候和种群趋势的能力。从宏观角度研究物候不匹配对于理解季节时序持续趋势的大范围影响至关重要。除了回答物候不匹配的关键研究问题外，团队还将通过具体的培训机会和广泛的教育和推广工作来扩大他们工作的影响。

The timing and synchrony of seasonal events presents real challenges in the natural world. Migratory birds coordinate their departure from wintering grounds in Central or South America to arrive at North American breeding grounds at just the right time. Too early and they risk experiencing severe weather from late frosts or blizzards. Too late and they risk missing the peak in early spring insects that they depend on to successfully raise offspring. For their part, insects such as butterflies also benefit when their emergence coincides with the springtime flush of new plant growth. The timing of spring has been shifting earlier in recent years, and this raises the possibility of mismatches in spring timing between birds, insects, and plants. A few local scale studies have suggested that such mismatches may be responsible for long-term population declines for some species, but the extent of this problem, especially over large areas remains unknown. In this project, the research team will combine information on springtime weather, satellite imagery on plant emergence, and multiple large-scale citizen science data on birds, butterflies, and caterpillars to perform a comprehensive evaluation of mismatches in seasonal timing between interacting species. This work is critical for understanding the potential impacts of continued shifts in seasonality on living systems. The work will also engage K-college students and the public through a new citizen science program, educational units, and outreach events focused on learning about the timing of seasonal changes.  The proposed research will be the first attempt to examine phenological mismatch across three trophic levels at a semi-continental extent. Local-scale studies have documented specific instances of phenological mismatch but fail to inform how mismatch consequences propagate across spatial, temporal, or trophic scales. Birds and butterflies provide the most expansive, long-term and detailed macroecological data sets on distribution, diversity, and demography. The project will unite multiple large-scale citizen science datasets for these taxa with targeted field data collection, and remotely-sensed climate and vegetation data layers, to examine the cross-scale and multi-trophic interactions that connect shifting thermal environments, phenological mismatch, and fitness consequences. This will be accomplished by: (1) assembling and uniting continental and regional monitoring and citizen-science databases for Lepidoptera and birds; (2) building spatio-temporal models in order to assess drivers of phenology, calculate direct metrics of phenological mismatch across trophic levels, and evaluate fitness and population consequences of those mismatches; and (3) testing the ability of generated models to predict phenology and population trends for focal birds and Lepidoptera across eastern North America as a function of tri-trophic phenological mismatch. Taking a macro-scale perspective on phenological mismatch is critical for understanding the range-wide impacts of sustained trends in seasonal timing. In addition to answering critical research questions on phenological mismatch the team will extend the impacts of their work through both specific training opportunities and broad-based education and outreach efforts.