Collaborative Proposal: MSB-FRA: Causes, consequences, and cross-scale linkages of environment-driven phenological mismatch across three trophic levels

季节性事件的时间性和同步性给自然界带来了真正的挑战。候鸟协调它们离开中美洲或南美洲的越冬地，在正确的时间到达北美的繁殖地。太早了，他们就有可能经历晚霜或暴风雪带来的恶劣天气。为时已晚，它们可能会错过早春昆虫的高峰期，它们赖以成功饲养后代的昆虫。对于蝴蝶等昆虫来说，当它们的出现恰逢春季植物生长旺盛时，它们也会受益。近几年来，春季的时间发生了较早的变化，这增加了鸟类、昆虫和植物之间春季时间错配的可能性。一些地方性规模的研究表明，这种错配可能是某些物种种群数量长期下降的原因，但这个问题的程度尚不清楚，特别是在大片地区。在这个项目中，研究小组将结合春季天气信息、植物出苗的卫星图像以及关于鸟类、蝴蝶和毛虫的多个大规模公民科学数据，对相互作用的物种之间的季节时间错配进行综合评估。这项工作对于理解季节性持续变化对生命系统的潜在影响至关重要。这项工作还将通过一个新的公民科学计划、教育单位和外展活动吸引K-College学生和公众参与，重点是了解季节变化的时间。这项拟议的研究将是第一次尝试在半大陆范围内检查三个营养级别的物候不匹配。局部规模的研究记录了物候错配的具体实例，但未能揭示错配后果如何在空间、时间或营养尺度上传播。鸟类和蝴蝶提供了关于分布、多样性和人口统计学的最广泛、最长期和最详细的宏观生态数据集。该项目将把这些分类群的多个大规模公民科学数据集与有针对性的现场数据收集以及遥感气候和植被数据层结合起来，以检查连接变化的热环境、物候不匹配和适应后果的跨尺度和多营养相互作用。这将通过以下方式实现：(1)汇编和统一大陆和区域的鳞翅目和鸟类监测和公民科学数据库；(2)建立时空模型，以评估物候的驱动因素，计算营养层级间物候不匹配的直接度量，并评估这些不匹配的适合度和种群后果；以及(3)测试所生成的模型作为三营养物候不匹配的函数预测北美东部重点鸟类和鳞翅目昆虫物候和种群趋势的能力。对物候错配采取宏观视角对于理解季节性时间持续趋势的范围内的影响至关重要。除了回答有关物候不匹配的关键研究问题外，该小组还将通过具体的培训机会以及广泛的教育和外联努力扩大其工作的影响。

The timing and synchrony of seasonal events presents real challenges in the natural world. Migratory birds coordinate their departure from wintering grounds in Central or South America to arrive at North American breeding grounds at just the right time. Too early and they risk experiencing severe weather from late frosts or blizzards. Too late and they risk missing the peak in early spring insects that they depend on to successfully raise offspring. For their part, insects such as butterflies also benefit when their emergence coincides with the springtime flush of new plant growth. The timing of spring has been shifting earlier in recent years, and this raises the possibility of mismatches in spring timing between birds, insects, and plants. A few local scale studies have suggested that such mismatches may be responsible for long-term population declines for some species, but the extent of this problem, especially over large areas remains unknown. In this project, the research team will combine information on springtime weather, satellite imagery on plant emergence, and multiple large-scale citizen science data on birds, butterflies, and caterpillars to perform a comprehensive evaluation of mismatches in seasonal timing between interacting species. This work is critical for understanding the potential impacts of continued shifts in seasonality on living systems. The work will also engage K-college students and the public through a new citizen science program, educational units, and outreach events focused on learning about the timing of seasonal changes.  The proposed research will be the first attempt to examine phenological mismatch across three trophic levels at a semi-continental extent. Local-scale studies have documented specific instances of phenological mismatch but fail to inform how mismatch consequences propagate across spatial, temporal, or trophic scales. Birds and butterflies provide the most expansive, long-term and detailed macroecological data sets on distribution, diversity, and demography. The project will unite multiple large-scale citizen science datasets for these taxa with targeted field data collection, and remotely-sensed climate and vegetation data layers, to examine the cross-scale and multi-trophic interactions that connect shifting thermal environments, phenological mismatch, and fitness consequences. This will be accomplished by: (1) assembling and uniting continental and regional monitoring and citizen-science databases for Lepidoptera and birds; (2) building spatio-temporal models in order to assess drivers of phenology, calculate direct metrics of phenological mismatch across trophic levels, and evaluate fitness and population consequences of those mismatches; and (3) testing the ability of generated models to predict phenology and population trends for focal birds and Lepidoptera across eastern North America as a function of tri-trophic phenological mismatch. Taking a macro-scale perspective on phenological mismatch is critical for understanding the range-wide impacts of sustained trends in seasonal timing. In addition to answering critical research questions on phenological mismatch the team will extend the impacts of their work through both specific training opportunities and broad-based education and outreach efforts.