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Collaborative Proposal: MSB-FRA: Causes, consequences, and cross-scale linkages of environment-driven phenological mismatch across three trophic levels

合作提案：MSB-FRA：三个营养级环境驱动物候不匹配的原因、后果和跨尺度联系

基本信息

批准号：
1703048
负责人：
Morgan Tingley
金额：
$ 82.15万
依托单位：
University of Connecticut
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2017
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2017-08-15 至 2020-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1703048&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
Collaborative Proposal MSB FRA Causes

项目摘要

The timing and synchrony of seasonal events presents real challenges in the natural world. Migratory birds coordinate their departure from wintering grounds in Central or South America to arrive at North American breeding grounds at just the right time. Too early and they risk experiencing severe weather from late frosts or blizzards. Too late and they risk missing the peak in early spring insects that they depend on to successfully raise offspring. For their part, insects such as butterflies also benefit when their emergence coincides with the springtime flush of new plant growth. The timing of spring has been shifting earlier in recent years, and this raises the possibility of mismatches in spring timing between birds, insects, and plants. A few local scale studies have suggested that such mismatches may be responsible for long-term population declines for some species, but the extent of this problem, especially over large areas remains unknown. In this project, the research team will combine information on springtime weather, satellite imagery on plant emergence, and multiple large-scale citizen science data on birds, butterflies, and caterpillars to perform a comprehensive evaluation of mismatches in seasonal timing between interacting species. This work is critical for understanding the potential impacts of continued shifts in seasonality on living systems. The work will also engage K-college students and the public through a new citizen science program, educational units, and outreach events focused on learning about the timing of seasonal changes. The proposed research will be the first attempt to examine phenological mismatch across three trophic levels at a semi-continental extent. Local-scale studies have documented specific instances of phenological mismatch but fail to inform how mismatch consequences propagate across spatial, temporal, or trophic scales. Birds and butterflies provide the most expansive, long-term and detailed macroecological data sets on distribution, diversity, and demography. The project will unite multiple large-scale citizen science datasets for these taxa with targeted field data collection, and remotely-sensed climate and vegetation data layers, to examine the cross-scale and multi-trophic interactions that connect shifting thermal environments, phenological mismatch, and fitness consequences. This will be accomplished by: (1) assembling and uniting continental and regional monitoring and citizen-science databases for Lepidoptera and birds; (2) building spatio-temporal models in order to assess drivers of phenology, calculate direct metrics of phenological mismatch across trophic levels, and evaluate fitness and population consequences of those mismatches; and (3) testing the ability of generated models to predict phenology and population trends for focal birds and Lepidoptera across eastern North America as a function of tri-trophic phenological mismatch. Taking a macro-scale perspective on phenological mismatch is critical for understanding the range-wide impacts of sustained trends in seasonal timing. In addition to answering critical research questions on phenological mismatch the team will extend the impacts of their work through both specific training opportunities and broad-based education and outreach efforts.

季节性事件的时间和同步性给自然界带来了真实的挑战。候鸟协调它们离开中美洲或南美洲的越冬地，在正确的时间到达北美的繁殖地。太早的话，他们可能会遇到霜冻或暴风雪等恶劣天气。太晚了，它们可能会错过早春昆虫的高峰期，而这些昆虫正是它们成功养育后代的基础。对蝴蝶这样的昆虫来说，当它们的出现与春天新植物的生长相吻合时，它们也会受益。近年来，春天的时间一直在提前，这增加了鸟类，昆虫和植物之间春天时间不匹配的可能性。一些地方规模的研究表明，这种不匹配可能是造成某些物种长期种群下降的原因，但这一问题的严重程度，特别是在大面积地区，仍然未知。在该项目中，研究小组将结合联合收割机春季天气信息，植物出苗的卫星图像，以及鸟类，蝴蝶和毛毛虫的多个大规模公民科学数据，对相互作用的物种之间的季节时间不匹配进行综合评估。这项工作对于了解季节性持续变化对生命系统的潜在影响至关重要。这项工作还将通过一个新的公民科学计划，教育单位和外展活动，重点是了解季节变化的时间，吸引K大学的学生和公众。这项研究将是首次尝试在半大陆范围内研究三个营养级之间的物候失配。当地规模的研究记录了具体的情况下，物候不匹配，但未能告知不匹配的后果如何传播跨空间，时间或营养尺度。鸟类和蝴蝶提供了关于分布、多样性和人口统计的最广泛、最长期和最详细的宏观生态数据集。该项目将把这些分类群的多个大规模公民科学数据集与有针对性的实地数据收集以及遥感气候和植被数据层结合起来，以研究跨尺度和多营养相互作用，这些相互作用连接着不断变化的热环境，物候不匹配和健身后果。这将通过以下方式实现：（1）收集和统一大陆和区域监测和鳞翅目和鸟类的公民科学数据库;（2）建立时空模型，以评估物候学的驱动因素，计算不同营养级的物候学不匹配的直接指标，并评估这些不匹配的适应性和人口后果;以及（3）测试所生成的模型预测作为三营养物候失配的函数的北美东部的焦点鸟类和鳞翅目的物候和种群趋势的能力。采取宏观尺度的角度来看，物候不匹配是至关重要的，了解范围广泛的影响，持续的趋势，季节性时间。除了回答关于物候不匹配的关键研究问题外，该团队还将通过具体的培训机会和广泛的教育和推广工作来扩大其工作的影响。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（21）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts

DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1705897114
发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
影响因子：
0
作者：
Jacob B. Socolar;Peter N. Epanchin;S. Beissinger;M. Tingley
通讯作者：
Jacob B. Socolar;Peter N. Epanchin;S. Beissinger;M. Tingley

Adult male birds advance spring migratory phenology faster than females and juveniles across North America

北美成年雄鸟比雌鸟和幼鸟推进春季迁徙物候的速度更快

DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16492
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Global Change Biology
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Neate‐Clegg, Montague H.;Tingley, Morgan W.
通讯作者：
Tingley, Morgan W.

Climate, urbanization, and species traits interactively drive flowering duration

DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15461
发表时间：
2020-12-13
期刊：
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Li, Daijiang;Barve, Narayani;Guralnick, Robert P.
通讯作者：
Guralnick, Robert P.

Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

山地鸟类群落的物候和生产力：海拔和气候变化的趋势和响应

DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14538
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
Global Change Biology
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Saracco, James F.;Siegel, Rodney B.;Helton, Lauren;Stock, Sarah L.;DeSante, David F.
通讯作者：
DeSante, David F.

Abiotic conditions shape spatial and temporal morphological variation in North American birds