CAREER: Climate Informed Uncertainty Analyses for Integrated Water Resources Sustainability

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0954405ArumugamThe objectives of this research are to (1) quantify the relative roles of climate variability in modulating seasonal streamflow and water quality variability over relatively undeveloped basins in the southeastern U.S., (2) investigate the utility of seasonal climate forecasts in improving water supply and water quality management and in developing adaptive water management plans for promoting water sustainability in regions such as the Neuse river basin, NC, (3) integrate research findings into (i) on-campus and distance education courses at NCSU, (ii) water-related courses at HCBUs in NC, and (iii) summer training programs for junior/senior high school students, and (4) demonstrate to federal and state agencies, research institutes and non-profits the use of climate forecasts in developing streamflow and water quality forecasts for impaired water bodies, for example, in NC. Various measures will be employed to quantify the causal chain that associates climatic variability with streamflow and water quality variability. Multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) forecasts will be utilized to develop streamflow and water quality forecasts, which are ingested into water allocation and water quality management models. Retrospective analyses using these forecasts will be performed to develop an integrated water management plan. This research aims to create a fundamental body of knowledge on understanding the role of climate variability in modulating streamflow and water quality in river basins. It is expected that findings from this research will offer insights on the vulnerability of water quality attributes to climatic variability. Streamflow forecasts developed using GCM forecasts will reduce model uncertainty and improve seasonal water allocation and water quality management plans. Generalizing the findings will help in understanding the potential utility of climate forecasts in promoting water resources sustainability.