Doctoral Dissertation Research: Power and Pesos: Economics, Expertise and National Currencies in Mexico and Argentina

摘要货币和汇率政策是政府调控经济最重要的领域之一，但学者们直到最近才开始研究这些政策的政治决定因素。鉴于过去几十年（尤其是在发展中国家）的货币不稳定经常被归咎于有缺陷的政策，更好地理解这些决定因素是学者和政策制定者关注的一个关键问题。本文认为，强调利益集团政治或选举激励的传统理论不足以解释这些政策结果在不同国家和不同时期的差异。相反，有人认为，经济专家之间的竞争动态是政策的关键决定因素。根据科学技术研究和社会学领域理论的最新发展，本文开发了一个框架，用于分析专家之间的竞争和学习过程。这一框架适用于墨西哥和阿根廷自20世纪80年代初以来的货币和汇率政策变化。数据包括对关键线人的采访、档案证据和一个新的数据库，该数据库由对这两个国家中央银行和财政部高级官员的教育背景和职业轨迹的观察组成。这项研究将为科学和技术研究文献中最近关于专业知识的性质及其与民主的关系以及经济科学在塑造经济中的作用的辩论提供信息。调查结果还将用于得出有关专家咨询意见质量和货币机构设计的结论。

AbstractMonetary and exchange rate policies are among the most important areas of government regulation of the economy, but scholars have only recently begun to study the political determinants of these policies. Given that episodes of monetary instability over the past several decades, particularly in the developing world, have frequently been blamed on flawed policies, a better understanding of these determinants is a key concern for scholars and policymakers. This dissertation argues that conventional theories that emphasize interest group politics or electoral incentives are insufficient to account for variations across countries and over time in these policy outcomes. Instead, it is argued that the dynamics of competition among economic experts are a crucial determinant of policies. Drawing on recent developments in science and technology studies and sociological field theory, a framework is developed for analyzing processes of competition and learning among experts. This framework is applied to changes in monetary and exchange rate policy in Mexico and Argentina since the early 1980?s. Data include interviews with key informants, archival evidence, and a new database consisting of observations of the educational background and career trajectories of high-ranking officials in the central banks and finance ministries of these two countries. This study will inform recent debates in the science and technology studies literature about the nature of expertise and its relation to democracy and the role of economic science in shaping the economy. Findings will also be used to draw conclusions about the quality of expert advice and the design of monetary institutions.