Doctoral Dissertation Research: When Poverty Disappears: Investigating the Impact of a Universal Guaranteed Income

埃里克o赖特大卫卡尔尼茨基威斯康星大学如果一个城镇消除了贫困将会发生什么？如果所有居民突然都能通过普遍收入转移机制，以大量现金支付的形式获得真正的经济保障，那会发生什么？这项研究考察了20世纪70年代末一个未被充分研究的准实验的影响，该实验被称为曼尼托巴基本年收入实验（Mincome）。加拿大和曼尼托巴省政府联合开展的Mincome项目，测试了一项为期三年的全民基本年收入计划。该项目的参与者能够获得相当于一个四口之家18,725加元的保证收入。虽然Mincome在三个主要地点进行，但研究的重点是位于马尼托巴省多芬镇的所谓“饱和”地点，那里的所有城镇居民都有资格获得Mincome的付款。关于基本收入及其与广义资本主义经济的融合，有广泛的理论文献。争论主要集中在对劳动力供给和工作关系的影响上，其次是性别和家庭关系。还有一个更大的与贫困相关的文献，它们与基本收入可能影响从犯罪到福利国家管理等广泛社会结果的方式有关。本文将小城镇的基本收入作为自变量，将工作、性别与家庭、教育、犯罪与暴力、社会政策的污名化效应作为因变量。尽管自20世纪90年代以来经济增长一直相当稳定，但与战后几十年不同的是，经济增长与就业增长越来越脱节。未来几十年的挑战可能不是寻找新的就业来源，而是如何分配稳步增长的产出。当代经济瓶颈可能不是由于人们的工作意愿，而是由于可靠的就业生产。尽管如此，关于最低收入保障政策可能以何种方式运作的证据仍然很少。Mincome是一项史无前例的实验，它提供了丰富的信息来源，值得进一步分析。虽然没有任何实验能够一劳永逸地回答工作收入关系的广泛重塑所带来的深刻问题，但多芬实验的发现有可能为这一主题提供有价值的知识。

SES-1333623Erik O. WrightDavid CalnitskyUniversity of WisconsinWhat would happen to a town if poverty were eliminated? What would happen if all residents suddenly could achieve genuine economic security in the form of substantial cash payments through a universal income transfer mechanism? This research examines the impact of an understudied quasi-experiment from the late 1970s called the Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment, or Mincome. Mincome, conducted by the Canadian and Manitoba Governments, tested a three-year universal basic annual income program. Participants in the program were able to secure guaranteed incomes equivalent to $18,725 CDN for a family of four. While Mincome took place in three main sites, the study focuses on the so-called "saturation" site located in the town of Dauphin, Manitoba, where all town residents were eligible for Mincome payments. There is a wide-ranging theoretical literature on the subject of basic income and its integration into a broadly capitalist economy. Debates focus primarily on the effects on the labor supply and work relations, and secondarily on gender and familial relations. There is an even bigger adjacent literature on poverty that remains relevant to the way a basic income might affect broad social outcomes from crime to the administration of the welfare state. This dissertation treats basic income in a small town as the independent variable, where work, gender and the family, education, crime and violence, and the stigma effects of social policy are treated as dependent variables.Broader Impact While economic growth has been fairly steady since the 1990s, unlike the post-war decades it has been increasingly disconnected to employment growth. The challenge of the coming decades may be less about the search for new sources of employment than the distribution of a steadily expanding output. The contemporary economic bottleneck may not be due to people's willingness to work, but rather the dependable production of employment. Nonetheless, there is still little evidence on the various ways a guaranteed minimal income policy might operate. Mincome was a unprecedented experiment and provides a rich source of information that should be further analyzed. While no experiment can answer once and for all the deep questions posed by the broad reshaping of the work-income relationship, findings from the Dauphin experiment has the potential to contribute valuable knowledge on the subject.