RUI - The Political Economy of IMF Surveillance

RUI - 国际货币基金组织监督的政治经济学

• 批准号: 0960422
• 负责人: Martin Edwards
• 金额: $ 11.67万
• 依托单位: Seton Hall University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-06-01 至 2013-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0960422&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RUI; Political; Economy; IMF; Surveillance

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been the focus of a great deal of scholarly attention in recent years. While we increasingly understand how the IMF makes loans, whether or not the conditions attached to these loans will be implemented by borrowing countries, and how to assess the broader effects of these programs, we still know every little about the day-to-day work of the IMF. One of the Fund's main jobs is to engage in annual reviews of member country economies to ensure that countries are adopting growth-enhancing policies. In contrast to the Fund's lending, very little attention has been paid to the IMF's surveillance activities.One of the barriers to learning about surveillance has been that until very recently it was a private dialogue between the Fund and the member country. In recent years, these consultations have become transparent. Country decisions to release information regarding the consultation allow us to understand how the IMF writes its reports and how IMF surveillance affects both the responses of international markets and country economic policies. In addition, understanding cross-country variations in transparency tell us a great deal about how international norms spread.These questions are important not merely because surveillance is unexplored, but also because understanding the effectiveness of IMF surveillance tells us about international cooperation more generally. Scholars study IMF lending because it is an area in which there is enforcement: countries that fail to implement loan conditions lose access to remaining installments of the loan. By contrast, surveillance is not backed by enforcement: any penalties that are incurred by countries not following the IMF?s advice are (presumably) inflicted by international investors who might withdraw capital. Learning about the effects of IMF surveillance helps understand when other international organizations that lack enforcement power can still be consequential.The research strategy to be used in this project is almost exclusively quantitative. Student research assistants will help build datasets on country decisions to make their IMF consultations transparent and on the effects of transparency on international capital markets and country economic policies. In addition, the Principal Investigator will go to the IMF archives to code the Fund's reports (both published and not) to ascertain whether the Fund faces incentives to reveal information about a country's economy accurately. Information from the archival reports will in turn be used to build a dataset as well. This project extends our understanding of one of the most important international organizations in the world. In so doing, it helps us to learn about country incentives for transparency and how transparency matters. Moreover, it helps devise broader lessons for international cooperation in noneconomic areas. Moreover, because this proposed project is under the Research at Undergraduate Institutions designation, it creates a nascent undergraduate research cluster addressing these issues.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）近年来一直是学术界关注的焦点。虽然我们越来越了解国际货币基金组织如何发放贷款，借款国是否会执行这些贷款的附加条件，以及如何评估这些计划的更广泛影响，但我们仍然对国际货币基金组织的日常工作知之甚少。基金组织的主要工作之一是对成员国经济进行年度审查，以确保各国采取促进增长的政策。与基金组织的贷款相比，基金组织的监督活动很少受到关注，了解监督的障碍之一是，直到最近，监督活动还是基金组织与成员国之间的私下对话。近年来，这些协商已变得透明。各国决定公布有关磋商的信息，使我们能够了解基金组织如何编写报告，以及基金组织的监督如何影响国际市场的反应和国家经济政策。此外，了解透明度的跨国差异可以让我们了解国际规范是如何传播的，这些问题之所以重要，不仅是因为我们尚未对监督进行探讨，还因为了解国际货币基金组织监督的有效性可以让我们了解更广泛的国际合作。学者们研究国际货币基金组织的贷款，因为这是一个强制执行的领域：未能执行贷款条件的国家将无法获得剩余的贷款分期付款。相比之下，监督没有得到执法的支持：不遵守IMF的国家会受到什么惩罚？的建议（大概）是由可能撤出资本的国际投资者造成的。了解国际货币基金组织监督的效果有助于了解其他缺乏执法权力的国际组织何时仍然可以产生影响。本项目中使用的研究策略几乎完全是定量的。学生研究助理将帮助建立关于国家决策的数据集，以使国际货币基金组织的磋商透明化，以及透明度对国际资本市场和国家经济政策的影响。此外，首席调查员将查阅基金组织档案，对基金组织的报告（包括已发表和未发表的报告）进行编码，以确定基金组织是否有动机准确披露有关一国经济的信息。档案报告中的信息也将用于构建数据集。这个项目扩展了我们对世界上最重要的国际组织之一的了解。这样做有助于我们了解各国促进透明度的激励措施以及透明度的重要性。此外，它有助于为非经济领域的国际合作制定更广泛的经验教训。此外，由于这个拟议的项目是在本科院校指定的研究，它创建了一个新生的本科研究集群解决这些问题。