Development of a Quantitative Model for Measuring Regional Economic Resilience to Hurricanes

开发衡量区域经济飓风抵御能力的定量模型

• 批准号: 1000251
• 负责人: Daan Liang
• 金额: $ 27.87万
• 依托单位: Texas Tech University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-09-01 至 2014-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1000251&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Development; Quantitative; Model; Measuring; Regional

This research is aimed at developing a quantitative model for measuring regional economic resilience to hurricane hazards. Resilience, being described as a dynamic and complex process, requires measurements at multiple timescales of relevant indicators that include infrastructure reconstruction, mitigation activities, public disaster expenditures, local employment, housing permits, retail sales, and personal income. By integrating atmospheric properties of storms, physical attributes of a region?s built environment and economic characteristics, the proposed model is capable of forecasting the rate of recovery in a local economy at multiple timescales. Key resilience indicators are identified and their effects are estimated with data collected from past events. Because these data are quantifiable and verifiable, we are able to produce a model with enhanced reliability and robustness. Two primary objectives are pursued: 1) model the progress in built environment recovery using remotely sensed image archives; 2) model the rate of economic recovery using time-series data at the Metropolitan Statistical Area level. We are exploring a potentially transformative concept by developing a quantitative model in both economic and physical dimensions of recovery. As the result, a critical knowledge gap between assessing the immediate damage of hurricanes and understanding its broader and lasting impacts could be bridged. The result will afford further numerical evidence for both complementing and strengthening existing theories in urban redevelopment and disaster recovery.The success of this research has the potential to greatly improve the long term economic well-being of communities in hurricane-prone regions with better designed public policies and investment. The outcomes and methodologies will be introduced as part of graduate curriculum as well as through websites and other academic outlets at both Texas Tech and East Carolina Universities. The project will support doctoral students in Wind Science and Engineering and Coastal Resource Management at two collaborating institutions. These activities will provide valuable training opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students, nurture the next generation of experts in multidisciplinary disaster-focused research, and contribute to the knowledgebase of hazard mitigation. It could also catalyze fundamental changes to help communities become more physically, socially and economically resilient in facing future disasters.

这项研究的目的是建立一个量化模型，衡量区域经济对飓风灾害的复原力。抗灾能力被描述为一个动态和复杂的过程，需要在多个时间尺度上衡量相关指标，包括基础设施重建、减灾活动、公共灾害支出、当地就业、住房许可、零售和个人收入。通过整合风暴的大气特性，一个地区的物理属性？的建成环境和经济特征，该模型能够预测在多个时间尺度上的地方经济的复苏速度。确定了关键的复原力指标，并利用从过去事件中收集的数据估计了其影响。由于这些数据是可量化和可验证的，因此我们能够生成具有增强的可靠性和鲁棒性的模型。有两个主要目标：（1）利用遥感图像档案建立人造环境恢复进展模型;（2）利用大都市统计区一级的时间序列数据建立经济恢复速度模型。我们正在探索一个潜在的变革性概念，在经济和物质两个方面建立一个复苏的量化模型。因此，评估飓风的直接损害与了解其更广泛和持久的影响之间的关键知识差距可以弥合。结果将提供进一步的数字证据，以补充和加强现有的理论在城市重建和灾难recovery.The成功的研究有可能大大提高长期的经济福祉社区在飓风易发地区更好地设计公共政策和投资。研究成果和方法将作为研究生课程的一部分，并通过德克萨斯理工大学和东卡罗莱纳大学的网站和其他学术渠道进行介绍。该项目将支持两个合作机构的风力科学和工程以及沿海资源管理的博士生。这些活动将为研究生和本科生提供宝贵的培训机会，培养下一代从事多学科灾害研究的专家，并为减灾知识库作出贡献。它还可以促进根本性的变化，帮助社区在面对未来的灾害时变得更有物质，社会和经济弹性。