Development of a quantitative impact model for calculating the schedule reliability of industrial manufacturing processes

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The logistic performance and in particular the schedule reliability of a production system is still a major competitive factor for industrial enterprises. Despite of the vital significance, many companies still face problems achieving their target schedule reliability. The reason lies within the numerous factors influencing the schedule reliability as well as the complex interdependencies in logistic systems.Describing logistic relationships by the use of models provides a simple and practical way for designing a logistic system. Factors influencing the schedule reliability are systematically structured and their impact on schedule reliability is described in terms of quantitative, mathematical equations. By applying this model, it is possible to find the most effective measure for increasing the schedule reliability. Furthermore, it is possible the estimate the effect of the measure on the schedule reliability before implementing the measure.Therefore, the target of the submitted research project is to develop a quantitative impact model describing the lateness of manufacturing orders of a single production system. The model calculates the empirical distribution of the lateness of the processed manufacturing orders. The input for the model is e.g. the sequencing rule, the work in process, or the backlog. Combining multiple models will allow describing the evolution of lateness in any logistic network.