Doctoral Dissertation Research: Use of Tree-Ring Data to Reconstruct and Predict Maple Syrup Production in New York

博士论文研究：利用树木年轮数据重建和预测纽约枫糖浆产量

• 批准号: 1003402
• 负责人: Paul Knapp
• 金额: $ 0.69万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina Greensboro
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-03-15 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1003402&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; Use; Tree

Maple sap and syrup production is an economically and culturally important industry in the northeastern U.S., with commercial harvest of the temperature-sensitive sap having occurred for several centuries. Since 1960, a significant decline in maple syrup yield has been associated with warming spring temperatures during the critical sugaring period and increases in summer drought frequencies, but how this current decline compares within the natural range of variability expected for many agricultural products, including maple syrup, is unknown. Holistic studies integrating climatology, tree physiology, forest ecology, and dendrochronology to investigate and quantify the environmental variables associated with maple syrup production are lacking. Few sugar maple tree-ring chronologies from the northeastern U.S. exist, yet preliminary work with sugar maple tree-ring data indicates this species can be easily cross-dated and that variations in tree-ring widths are significantly correlated with maple syrup yield. This doctoral dissertation research project will incorporate dendrochronological techniques to develop yield reconstructions as well as predict yield up to several months prior to the sugaring season. The use of tree-ring data will allow for the forecasting of maple syrup production under different climate conditions. This project will extend the historical record of maple syrup yield by over 100 years using tree-ring data and thus place the current decline in a larger historical perspective than currently exists. The tree-ring data will be used to test the viability of developing an accurate forecast several months prior to the sugaring season, because no predictive metric currently exists to forecast maple syrup yield.This project will help determine the effectiveness of using sugar maple tree-ring data to predict and reconstruct maple syrup yields during the past two centuries. It will model climatological and meteorological variables that have affected syrup yields and tree-ring growth since the early 1900s; and it will explore the possible causes for the post-1950s decline in syrup production. The project will help promote the effectiveness of using tree-ring data to predict agricultural yields, which will ultimately provide farmers additional information about crop-yield cycles, and this knowledge will help determine appropriate management methods for sugarbush operators during less-favorable climatological conditions. The data from this research will be published in peer-reviewed journals and shared with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the North American Maple Syrup Council, the New York State Maple Producers Associations, Inc., the Cornell Sugar Maple Research and Extension Program, and the International Tree-Ring Data Bank. High-quality, long-term crop yield data are scarce for many species, and the use of tree-ring data to reconstruct yield may be a viable method for extending historical records to examine annual-to-decadal harvest fluctuations. As a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement award, this award also will provide support to enable a promising student to establish a strong independent research career.

枫树汁和糖浆生产是美国东北部经济和文化上重要的产业，对温度敏感的树液的商业收获已经发生了几个世纪。 自1960年以来，枫糖浆产量的显著下降与关键制糖期春季气温变暖和夏季干旱频率增加有关，但目前的下降与许多农产品（包括枫糖浆）预期的自然变化范围相比如何尚不清楚。 缺乏整合气候学、树木生理学、森林生态学和树木年代学的整体研究，以调查和量化与枫糖浆生产相关的环境变量。 美国东北部的糖枫树轮年表很少存在，但糖枫树轮数据的初步工作表明，该物种可以很容易地交叉日期，树轮宽度的变化与枫糖浆产量显着相关。 这个博士论文研究项目将采用树木年代学技术来重建产量，并在制糖季节前几个月预测产量。 利用树木年轮数据将能够预测不同气候条件下的枫糖浆产量。 该项目将使用树木年轮数据将枫糖浆产量的历史记录延长100多年，从而将目前的下降置于比目前更大的历史视角中。 树轮数据将用于测试在制糖季节前几个月进行准确预测的可行性，因为目前还没有预测枫糖浆产量的预测指标，该项目将有助于确定使用糖枫树轮数据预测和重建枫糖浆产量的有效性。 它将模拟自20世纪初以来影响糖浆产量和树木年轮生长的气候和气象变量;它将探索20世纪50年代后糖浆产量下降的可能原因。 该项目将有助于提高使用树木年轮数据预测农业产量的有效性，这将最终为农民提供有关作物产量周期的更多信息，这些知识将有助于在不利的气候条件下为甘蔗种植者确定适当的管理方法。 这项研究的数据将发表在同行评议的期刊上，并与美国农业部、北美枫树协会理事会、纽约州枫树生产者协会、康奈尔糖枫研究和推广计划，以及国际树木年轮数据库。 高质量的，长期的作物产量数据是稀缺的许多物种，使用树木年轮数据重建产量可能是一个可行的方法，延长历史记录，以检查年度至十年的收成波动。 作为博士论文研究改进奖，该奖项还将提供支持，使有前途的学生建立一个强大的独立的研究生涯。