A Paleoclimatic Examination of Tropical Cyclone-Related Precipitation Variability and Atmospheric-Oceanic Controls Inferred from Longleaf Pine in the Coastal Carolinas

对卡罗莱纳州沿海长叶松推断的热带气旋相关降水变化和大气-海洋控制的古气候检验

• 批准号: 1660432
• 负责人: Paul Knapp
• 金额: $ 13.55万
• 依托单位: University of North Carolina Greensboro
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-04-01 至 2021-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1660432&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Paleoclimatic; Examination; Tropical; Cyclone; Related

This project will analyze the variability of rainfall resulting from tropical cyclones, such as tropical storms and hurricanes, that impacted the coastal regions of North Carolina and South Carolina during the last 300 years. Because an accurate instrumental record of precipitation from tropical cyclones along the southeastern Atlantic Coast exists only from about 1950 to the present, the new approach refined through the conduct of this project will expand the understanding of the long-term variability of tropical cyclone precipitation and tropical cyclone frequency. Preliminary research has indicated that longer periods of minimal tropical cyclone precipitation exceeded previously identified recurrence intervals, thereby indicating that the variability in tropical cyclone precipitation is greater than has been experienced recently. Although this project focuses on several sites in the coastal Carolinas, the proxy record contained in tree-rings of longleaf pine trees that occur throughout the range of land-falling tropical cyclones from Texas to North Carolina offers a viable means to expand basic understanding of the long-term variability of tropical cyclones and their precipitation along the far southeast Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Project findings and methods will have value for linking paleoclimates with current conditions with observed increases in both flooding and drought events. Project findings will be shared with governmental agencies and other groups. An enhanced understanding of variability in total precipitation volume from tropical cyclones will assist planners and management personnel engaged in flood- and drought-mitigation projects. In addition to providing education and training opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students, high school seniors engaged in North Carolina's Summer Ventures in Science and Mathematics program will have opportunities to learn about the project.Tropical cyclone precipitation is critical to groundwater recharge. It can abruptly end droughts, and it serves an important ecological role. Tropical cyclone precipitation also causes inland flooding resulting in multiple fatalities, widespread power outages, and billions of dollars in damages. The investigators engaged in this project will develop a method to determine variations in tropical cyclone precipitation for multiple centuries. The pattern of longleaf pine tree growth will be determined using a method called cross-dating, and the annual latewood ring width, which develops during tropical cyclone season, will be measured and statistically matched with the instrumental climate record of tropical cyclone precipitation. The investigators will extend the record of tropical cyclone precipitation more than 200 years beyond that available using the instrumental record. They will document long-term spatio-temporal variability of tropical cyclone precipitation, and they will examine the bivariate sensitivity of tropical cyclone precipitation to modes of climate variability, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. They also will determine the potential suite of interactive and multivariate influences of these large-scale atmospheric modes on tropical cyclone precipitation. Tree-ring data will be collected non-destructively from live trees and from remnant stumps. Using statistical regression, mathematical models will reconstruct the historical volume of tropical cyclone precipitation. Multi-century patterns of tropical cyclone precipitation will be examined for trends, periodicities, and regime shifts using regression-based and wavelet analysis techniques.

该项目将分析过去300年来影响北卡罗来纳州和南卡罗来纳州沿海地区的热带气旋（如热带风暴和飓风）造成的降雨变化。 由于仅从1950年左右至今才有关于东南大西洋沿岸沿着热带气旋降水的精确仪器记录，因此通过开展本项目而改进的新方法将扩大对热带气旋降水和热带气旋频率长期变化的理解。 初步研究表明，热带气旋降水量最少的时期较长，超过了以前确定的复发间隔，从而表明热带气旋降水的变异性比最近经历的要大。 虽然该项目的重点是沿海的几个地点，但从得克萨斯州到北卡罗来纳州的整个登陆热带气旋范围内的长叶松树年轮中所含的替代记录提供了一种可行的方法，以扩大对热带气旋及其降水沿着远东南大西洋和墨西哥湾海岸的长期变化的基本了解。 项目的研究结果和方法将有价值的古气候与目前的条件与观察到的洪水和干旱事件的增加。 项目结果将与政府机构和其他团体分享。 加强对热带气旋总降水量变化的了解，将有助于参与减轻水灾和旱灾项目的规划人员和管理人员。 除了为研究生和本科生提供教育和培训机会外，参与北卡罗来纳州科学和数学暑期创业项目的高中毕业生将有机会了解该项目。 它可以突然结束干旱，并发挥重要的生态作用。 热带气旋降水还导致内陆洪水，造成多人死亡，大范围停电和数十亿美元的损失。 参与该项目的调查人员将开发一种方法来确定多个世纪以来热带气旋降水的变化。 长叶松树的生长模式将使用一种称为交叉定年的方法来确定，而在热带气旋季节形成的年度晚材年轮宽度将被测量，并与热带气旋降水的仪器气候记录进行统计匹配。 研究人员将把热带气旋降水的记录延长到200多年，超过使用仪器记录的记录。 他们将记录热带气旋降水的长期时空变化，并将研究热带气旋降水对气候变化模式的双变量敏感性，如北大西洋涛动和大西洋数十年涛动。 他们还将确定这些大尺度大气模式对热带气旋降水的潜在交互和多元影响。树木年轮数据将从活树和残桩中以非破坏性方式收集。 使用统计回归，数学模型将重建热带气旋降水量的历史。 将使用基于回归和小波分析的技术来检查热带气旋降水的多世纪模式的趋势、周期性和状态转换。

项目成果

Tropical cyclone precipitation regimes since 1750 and the Great Suppression of 1843–1876 along coastal North Carolina, USA

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6615
• 发表时间: 2020-05
• 期刊: International Journal of Climatology
• 作者: P. Knapp;P. T. Soulé;Justin T. Maxwell;Jason T. Ortegren;T. Mitchell

A comparison of the climate response of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) trees among standardized measures of earlywood, latewood, adjusted latewood, and totalwood radial growth

• DOI: 10.1007/s00468-021-02093-z
• 发表时间: 2021-02
• 期刊: Trees
• 作者: P. T. Soulé;P. Knapp;Justin T. Maxwell;T. Mitchell

Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Using a High-Resolution, Gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) Dataset for the Eastern United States, 1948–2015

使用美国东部高分辨率网格 (0.25° × 0.25°) 数据集的热带气旋降水时空变化，1948 年至 2015 年

• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0885.1
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: Bregy, Joshua C.;Maxwell, Justin T.;Robeson, Scott M.;Ortegren, Jason T.;Soulé, Peter T.;Knapp, Paul A.
• 通讯作者: Knapp, Paul A.

Microelevational Differences Affect Longleaf Pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) Sensitivity to Tropical Cyclone Precipitation: A Case Study Using Lidar

• DOI: 10.3959/trr2019-9
• 发表时间: 2020-06
• 期刊: Tree-Ring Research
• 影响因子: 1.6
• 作者: Evan Montpellier;P. Knapp;P. T. Soulé;Justin T. Maxwell