Collaborative Research: (DRU) Modeling Business Return Amid Post-Disaster Uncertainties: New Orleans After Katrina

建立在第一手的电话和街道调查数据收集通过以前的项目新奥尔良企业卡特里娜飓风后，该项目开发的模型，以量化的决定，由企业在灾难后返回其先前的位置。特别注意的是一个企业，它的邻居，和位于附近的企业之间的空间关系。具体而言，本项目有四个目标：（1）扩展现有的空间统计方法，以解决与重要因变量相关的调查数据信息的有序性，这些因变量在潜在决策中表现出空间依赖性。(2)使用统计模型中的估计和推断来探索业务恢复与企业面临的各种灾难相关问题之间的关系。(3)比较援助分配的替代空间策略，以检查最大限度地恢复的方法。(4)就其他地点的最佳恢复办法和恢复潜力的衡量标准提出估计和推断，以便归纳其他地点的灾害分析结果。该项目是第一次尝试正式建模业务连接和决策中的相互依赖性，因为它涉及到有关灾难恢复的决策。这项研究有可能增加方法和实质性知识。这项研究的结果将对新奥尔良以及其他未来灾难发生地的规划、减灾和业务恢复产生重大影响。

Building on first-hand telephone and street survey data collected through a previous project on New Orleans businesses after Katrina, this project develops models to quantify determinants of the decisions by businesses to return to their prior location after a disaster. Special attention is given to the spatial relations between a business, its neighborhood, and businesses located nearby. Specifically, this project has four goals: (1) Extend current spatial statistical methods to address the ordinal nature of survey data information pertaining to important dependent variables that exhibit spatial dependence in underlying decisions. (2) Use estimates and inferences from the statistical models to explore the relation between business recovery and various disaster related problems that have confronted businesses. (3) Compare alternative spatial strategies for aid distribution to examine approaches that will maximize recovery. (4) Produce estimates and inferences regarding optimal recovery approaches and measures of recovery potential for other locations that will generalize findings for the analysis of disasters in other locations. The project is the first attempt to formally model business connectivity and interdependence in decision making as it pertains to decisions about disaster recovery. The research has the potential to augment both methodological and substantive knowledge. Findings from this research will have major implications for planning, mitigation, and the recovery of business in New Orleans as well as in other sites of future disasters.