Collaborative Research: (DRU) Modeling Business Return Amid Post-Disaster Uncertainties: New Orleans After Katrina

该项目以卡特里娜飓风后新奥尔良企业项目收集的第一手电话和街道调查数据为基础，开发了模型，量化企业在灾后返回原地点的决定因素。特别注意的是一个企业，它的邻居，以及附近的企业之间的空间关系。具体而言，该项目有四个目标：(1)扩展当前的空间统计方法，以解决与重要因变量相关的调查数据信息的序数性质，这些变量在潜在决策中表现出空间依赖性。(2)利用统计模型的估计和推断，探讨企业恢复与企业面临的各种灾害相关问题之间的关系。(3)比较不同的空间援助分配策略，以检验将最大限度地恢复的方法。(4)对其他地点的最佳恢复方法和恢复潜力措施进行估计和推断，将结果推广到其他地点的灾害分析。该项目是首次尝试正式建模业务连接性和决策制定中的相互依赖性，因为它与灾难恢复决策有关。这项研究有可能增加方法论和实质性知识。这项研究的结果将对新奥尔良以及未来其他灾害地点的规划、减灾和商业恢复产生重大影响。

Building on first-hand telephone and street survey data collected through a previous project on New Orleans businesses after Katrina, this project develops models to quantify determinants of the decisions by businesses to return to their prior location after a disaster. Special attention is given to the spatial relations between a business, its neighborhood, and businesses located nearby. Specifically, this project has four goals: (1) Extend current spatial statistical methods to address the ordinal nature of survey data information pertaining to important dependent variables that exhibit spatial dependence in underlying decisions. (2) Use estimates and inferences from the statistical models to explore the relation between business recovery and various disaster related problems that have confronted businesses. (3) Compare alternative spatial strategies for aid distribution to examine approaches that will maximize recovery. (4) Produce estimates and inferences regarding optimal recovery approaches and measures of recovery potential for other locations that will generalize findings for the analysis of disasters in other locations. The project is the first attempt to formally model business connectivity and interdependence in decision making as it pertains to decisions about disaster recovery. The research has the potential to augment both methodological and substantive knowledge. Findings from this research will have major implications for planning, mitigation, and the recovery of business in New Orleans as well as in other sites of future disasters.