CNH: Coupled Natural-Human Dynamics in a Vulnerable Coastal System

这一跨学科研究项目将调查特别容易受到自然资源损失和自然灾害影响的沿海社区的可持续性。调查人员将把重点放在路易斯安那州的密西西比河下游流域，那里是美国大陆和世界上最脆弱的海岸之一。多年来，这一三角洲地区经历了多种威胁和灾害，如土地流失、地面下沉、海平面上升、洪水、飓风和石油泄漏。土地的消失是该地区南部的一个严重问题。在过去的十年中，研究区域的北部出现了显著的人口和经济增长，而新奥尔良周围的南部经历了人口和经济的下降。一个紧迫的问题是，路易斯安那州南部沿海地区是否达到了一个临界点，使其成本过高，难以维持。如果是这样的话，同样的经济和生态系统功能是否已经逐渐向北部邻近地区转移？研究人员将使用自然-人类系统耦合的方法来量化和解释这些变化，他们将评估这些发现对未来规划和缓解的影响。研究人员将追求的四个目标是：(1)开发评估沿海系统可持续性或弹性的方法；(2)开发系统级模型，以捕捉和量化主要自然和人类因素之间的动态联系；(3)比较和对比路易斯安那州沿海北部和南部的弹性，以了解弹性控制因素；以及(4)模拟未来情景，用于规划和决策。该项目将使用自然-人类系统耦合的方法评估路易斯安那州密西西比河下游流域的可持续性。它将增进对影响沿海系统可持续性的关键因素以及这些关键因素如何在系统一级相互作用的基本了解。路易斯安那州沿海地区这两个系统之间的比较将提供有关这两个系统过去如何结合的新知识，从而加强对目前系统相互作用的了解，并促进对未来的预测。该项目开发的一套可持续性评估和建模工具和软件将为学生、其他研究人员和决策者提供有价值的教育和决策工具。该项目将吸引广泛的受众，包括来自服务不足的学校的K-12学生和教师、当地政府官员、环境组织和公众。项目成果将向政策制定者和公众介绍如何提高该地区的复原力，并将为更好地规划未来提供方案。这些发现还将为世界上其他面临类似类型威胁和挑战的三角洲地区提供新的见解。该项目得到了美国自然与人类耦合系统动力学(CNH)计划的支持。

This interdisciplinary research project will investigate the sustainability of coastal communities that are especially vulnerable to natural resource losses and natural hazards. The investigators will focus on the Lower Mississippi River Basin in Louisiana, which is one of the most vulnerable coasts in the continental United States and the world. Over the years, this deltaic region has endured multiple threats and disasters, such as land loss, subsidence, sea-level rise, flooding, hurricanes, and oil spills. The disappearance of land is a critical problem in the southern part of the region. During the past decade, significant population and economic growth has occurred in the northern part of the study area, whereas the southern part surrounding New Orleans has experienced population and economic decline. A pressing question is whether southern coastal Louisiana reached a tipping point that makes it too costly to sustain. If so, has the same type of economic and ecosystem functions gradually migrated to the neighboring region to the north? The researchers will quantify and explain these changes using a coupled natural-human system approach, and they will evaluate the implications of those findings for future planning and mitigation. The four objectives the researchers will pursue are (1) to develop methods to assess the sustainability or resilience of a coastal system; (2) to develop a system-level model to capture and quantify the dynamic linkages among the major natural and human components; (3) to compare and contrast the resiliency between the northern and southern parts of coastal Louisiana so as to understand the resiliency control factors; and (4) to simulate future scenarios for planning and decision making.This project will assess the sustainability of the lower Mississippi River basin in Louisiana using a coupled natural-human system approach. It will increase basic understanding about the key factors affecting the sustainability of a coastal system and how these key factors interact at a system level. The comparison between the two systems in coastal Louisiana will provide new knowledge regarding how the two systems have been coupled in the past that enhances understanding of system interactions in the present and facilitates projections for the future. The set of sustainability assessment and modeling tools and software developed in this project will be valuable educational as well as decision-making tools for students, other researchers, and decision makers. The project will engage a wide audience, including K-12 students and teachers from underserved schools, local governmental officials, environmental groups, and the public. Project findings will inform policy makers and the public about how to increase the resilience of the region, and they will provide scenarios to better plan for the future. The findings also will provide new insights regarding other deltaic regions around the world that are faced with similar types of threats and challenges. This project is supported by the NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems (CNH) Program.