Support for a Workshop on Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Change Impact and Response Assessments. To be held in Washington, DC early 2010 for the CHDGC

支持气候变化影响和应对评估的社会经济情景研讨会。

• 批准号: 1003678
• 负责人: Paul Stern
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: National Academy of Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-03-01 至 2011-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1003678&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Support; Workshop; Socioeconomic; Scenarios; Climate

The effects of climate change on society depend on changes in both the climate and in society over many decades. For example, the impacts of climate change on coastal communities in 2070 depend not only on changes in sea level and storm behavior but also on changes in population distributions and land uses over the period between now and then, including voluntary responses in anticipation of future threats. This international workshop will consider the current state of the science and will develop improved methods for describing the long-term social and economic future. The purpose is to anlyze the potential impacts of climate change and consider alternative responses. Projecting more than a few decades into the future is usually treated as beyond the capability of demographers and other social scientists who work on socioeconomic and technological change. Ongoing global climate change challenges these communities to stretch beyond the usual limits of their willingness to project and to develop methods of integrated analysis that can put long-term decisions about how to respond to climate change on a solider scientific foundation. The workshop will bring together several research communities that work on parts of the problem but that are not in close coordination, as well as researchers from both high- and low-income countries who have addressed the problem in fundamentally different ways, to discuss ways to meet the challenge. It would encourage them to consider new analytical approaches and would stimulate further work and collaborations to integrate impact projections from physical models; scientifically credible descriptions of future demographic, economic, and social change; and potential mitigation and adaptation responses in anticipation of such impacts. Such integrated scenarios are important for long-range planning to reduce vulnerability to climate change. They call the attention of decision makers to the places and populations at greatest risk and help identify response options that will be robust in many plausible futures. The workshop will help advance analysis of the possible impacts of long-term global climate change and better inform responses to climate change.

气候变化对社会的影响取决于几十年来气候和社会的变化。例如，2070年气候变化对沿海社区的影响不仅取决于海平面和风暴行为的变化，还取决于从现在到那时的人口分布和土地利用的变化，包括对未来威胁的预期的自愿反应。这次国际研讨会将审议科学的现状，并将制定更好的方法来描述长期的社会和经济未来。目的是分析气候变化的潜在影响，并考虑替代对策。 对未来几十年的预测通常被认为超出了人口学家和其他从事社会经济和技术变革的社会科学家的能力。持续的全球气候变化对这些社区提出了挑战，要求他们超越通常的预测意愿限度，制定综合分析方法，将如何应对气候变化的长期决定建立在更坚实的科学基础上。研讨会将汇集几个研究该问题部分内容但没有密切协调的研究团体，以及来自高收入和低收入国家的研究人员，他们以根本不同的方式处理该问题，讨论如何应对挑战。这将鼓励它们考虑新的分析方法，并将促进进一步的工作和合作，以整合物理模型的影响预测;对未来人口、经济和社会变化的科学可信的描述;以及预期此类影响的潜在缓解和适应对策。这种综合设想方案对于减少气候变化脆弱性的长期规划十分重要。它们提请决策者注意风险最大的地方和人群，并帮助确定在许多可能的未来都将是强有力的应对方案。研讨会将有助于推动对长期全球气候变化可能影响的分析，并为应对气候变化提供更好的信息。