Potential Impacts of Aerosol Particles on Severe Storms and Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs)

该项目将继续评估气溶胶污染和自然沙尘源对强对流风暴和中尺度对流系统的潜在影响。 本研究员基于区域大气模拟系统（RAMS）模型进行的先前研究表明，沙尘气溶胶的影响可能会显著影响中部平原风暴爆发的演变，并（最终）改变单个对流风暴内龙卷风发生的可能性，而其他研究则指出可能的气溶胶对冰雹形成的影响。 为了进一步研究这些主题，研究小组将重点关注三个关键领域，每个领域都有助于这项工作的智力价值：* 评估气溶胶/灰尘对龙卷风形成的影响：使用RAMS 4.3.0版，研究人员将评估尘埃对环境热力学剖面的直接辐射影响，特别注意“封顶反演，“尘埃作为核改变超级单体雷暴动力学的能力，并进行实际风暴事件的模拟，注意评估吸入尘埃的影响。 * 使用三阶矩云微物理方案模拟冰雹形成：研究人员将进一步修改新开发的三阶矩方案，进行额外的敏感性测试，并模拟一个或多个真实案例。 * 评估气溶胶对MCS和冰雹的影响：研究人员将研究云凝结核（CCN）浓度的变化如何在各种环境条件下影响冰雹的形成和大小，并对几个观测到的MCS进行模拟，这些MCS显然摄入了高度污染的空气，以确定摄入的CCN对整体风暴动力学和微物理学是否有显著的反馈。这项研究的更广泛影响将包括多名研究生参与概述的研究活动。 根据赠款开发的建模资源将通过最终纳入天气研究和预报（WRF）模型提供给科学界。 这项工作最终有可能通过改善对强对流天气事件的预报而产生社会效益。

This project will involve continued assessment of the potential impacts of aerosol pollution and natural dust sources on severe convective storms and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Prior research by this investigator based upon the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) model has suggested that dust-aerosol influences could significantly influence the evolution of storm outbreaks in the central plains and (ultimately) alter the potential for tornadogenesis within individual convective storms, while other research has pointed to possible aerosol influences on hail formation. To further pursue these topics the research team will focus three key areas, each contributing to the intellectual merit of this effort: * Assessing aerosol/dust influences on tornadogenesis: Using RAMS version 4.3.0, the researchers will assess the direct radiative effects of dust on the environmental thermodynamic profile with special attention to the "capping inversion," the ability of dust serving as nuclei to alter supercell thunderstorm dynamics, and conduct simulations of actual storm events with attention to assessing impacts of ingested dust. * Modeling hail formation using a triple-moment cloud microphysical scheme: The researchers will further modify a newly developed triple moment scheme, perform additional sensitivity tests, and simulate one or more real-world cases. * Assessing aerosol influences on MCSs and hailstorms: The researchers will examine how the variability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations may impact hail formation and size under various environmental conditions, and perform simulations of several observed MCSs that evidently ingested highly polluted air to determine if there are significant feedbacks of ingested CCN on overall storm dynamics and microphysics.Broader impacts of this research will include the participation of multiple graduate students in the outlined research activities. Modeling resources developed under the grant will be made available to the scientific community via their ultimate inclusion in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The work ultimately has the potential for societal benefits through improved forecasts of severe convective weather events.