Collaborative Research: Climate Change Impacts on Regional Wind Climates

全球气候变化的影响将体现在地方一级，因此，要量化风险、脆弱性、机会和确定适当的适应措施，就需要对使用降尺度工具得出的气候系统进行空间分类描述。近地表风速的可变性和变化对气候变化对社会的影响特别重要，例如，它们影响到利用可再生能源的可行性和对关键基础设施的风险。利用北美区域气候变化评估项目的产品和最先进的全球气候模型模拟，来自印第安纳州大学大气科学项目的Sara Pryor教授和来自南伊利诺伊大学地理系的Justin Schoof将确定和量化风气候变化的来源，时间尺度从几个月到几十年，并使用动态和经验降尺度工具，在全球气候变化情景下，生成美国本土风气候的独特详细预测。这项研究将有助于更好地了解风速的时空变化，风气候变化的动态原因，极端风速的机制，以及最新一代全球和区域气候模型模拟的评估。鉴于在气候变化预测中适当评估不确定性来源和敏感性的关键重要性，还将确定风气候预测（定义为根据不同情景制定的预测的分布）对主要不确定性来源的相对敏感性，该项目的动机是需要在关键经济部门（包括可再生能源和关键基础设施）采取气候变化减缓和适应行动。例如，不断变化的风气候可能会影响到2030年美国20%的电力供应来自风力涡轮机的国家目标。该项目将使人们更好地了解区域风气候的自然/内部变化以及全球气候变化对区域风气候和现有风力发电厂的运行（至2035年）可能产生的影响，并量化整个世纪风气候可能发生的长期变化，包括极端条件。

The impact of global climate change will be manifest at the local scale and thus quantification of risks, vulnerability, opportunities and identification of appropriate adaptation measures require spatially disaggregated descriptions of the climate system derived using downscaling tools. Variability and change in near-surface wind speeds have particular importance for climate change impacts on society via their impact on, for example, the feasibility of harnessing renewable energy resources and risks to critical infrastructure. Using products from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Project and state-of-the-art global climate model simulations, Professors Sara Pryor from the Atmospheric Science Program at Indiana University and Justin Schoof from the Geography Department at Southern Illinois University at Carbondale will identify and quantify sources of wind climate variability on time scales from months to decades, and generate uniquely detailed projections of wind climates across the contiguous US under global climate change scenarios using both dynamical and empirical downscaling tools. This research will contribute to improved understanding of spatio-temporal variability in wind speeds, dynamic causes of variability in wind climates, mechanisms responsible for extreme wind speeds, and evaluation of the latest generation of Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. Given the key importance of proper assessment of sources of uncertainty and sensitivity in climate change projections, the relative sensitivity of wind climate projections (defined as spread in projections developed from different scenarios) to key sources of uncertainty will also be developed.The project is motivated by the need for climate change mitigation and adaptation actions in key economic sectors including renewable energy and critical infrastructure. For example, changing wind climates may have implications for the national goal of obtaining 20% of US electricity supply from wind turbines by 2030. The project will generate better understanding of natural/internal variability of regional wind climates and possible influences of global climate change on regional wind climates and operation of existing wind power plants (to 2035) and quantification of possible longer-term shifts in wind climates, including extreme conditions, over the entire 21st century.