Collaboration Research: Development and Evaluation of Downscaling Tools for Near-Surface Wind Climates

合作研究：近地表风气候降尺度工具的开发和评估

• 批准号: 0618364
• 负责人: Sara Pryor
• 金额: $ 13万
• 依托单位: Indiana University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2006-09-01 至 2010-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=0618364&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaboration; Research; Development; Evaluation; Downscaling

The climate system is being increasingly accurately modeled at large scales by numerical models (coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM)). However, it remains necessary to use downscaling tools to describe climate on spatial scales suitable for impact analyses. Changes in near-surface wind speeds have long been acknowledged as having particular importance for climate change impacts on society via their impact on, for example, thermal comfort, structural design, feasibility of harnessing renewable energy resources, agriculture and forestry and soil erosion. However, tools have not yet been fully developed or evaluated which can be used to derive climatologies of near-surface wind speeds for historical, current or future conditions at the spatial scales necessary for application in impact analyses. This project will develop and apply physical (dynamical) and statistical (empirical) downscaling tools to AOGCM output to provide an assessment of the accuracy of various tools for downscaling wind climates, to generate projections of probability distributions of wind speeds for the contiguous USA and surrounding coastal waters, and to quantify uncertainties in those projections.The research couples closely with the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program and the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change process by utilizing climate model products generated within those programs. It is thus part of a larger endeavor designed to better understand and predict global and regional climates, and to disseminate climate information to a range of potential end-user communities. To facilitate this information transfer a digital atlas of current and possible future wind climates will be developed and made publicly accessible from a dynamic project WWW site hosted by Indiana University. The broader impacts of the research also include training and education of graduate and undergraduate students with a specific focus on students who are women or are from other groups that are traditionally under-represented in science disciplines.

数值模式(大气-海洋耦合全球气候模式(AOGCM))在大尺度上对气候系统进行了越来越精确的模拟。然而，仍然有必要使用缩小尺度的工具来描述适用于影响分析的空间尺度上的气候。长期以来，近地表风速的变化一直被认为对气候变化对社会的影响具有特别重要的意义，因为它对热舒适、结构设计、利用可再生能源的可行性、农业和林业以及土壤侵蚀等方面产生了影响。然而，尚未充分开发或评估可用于在应用于影响分析所需的空间尺度上推算历史、当前或未来条件的近地表风速气候的工具。该项目将开发物理(动力学)和统计(经验)降尺度工具，并将其应用于AOGCM输出，以评估各种用于降尺度风气候的工具的准确性，生成美国毗邻地区和周围沿海水域风速的概率分布预测，并量化这些项目中的不确定性。该研究与北美区域气候变化评估计划和政府间气候变化专门委员会的第四次评估报告紧密结合，利用这些计划内产生的气候模式产品。因此，这是一个更大的努力的一部分，旨在更好地了解和预测全球和区域气候，并向一系列潜在的最终用户社区传播气候信息。为了促进这一信息传输，将开发一份关于当前和未来可能的风气候的数字地图集，并通过印第安纳大学主办的一个动态项目WWW网站向公众开放。这项研究的更广泛影响还包括对研究生和本科生的培训和教育，重点是女性学生或来自传统上在科学学科中代表性不足的其他群体的学生。