Collaborative research: Integrating genetically informed models of germination and flowering to predict life history responses to changing climate.

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Phenology - the seasonal timing of biological events - is one of the most important organismal responses to climate change. For annual plant species, the seasonal timing of seed germination and flowering is crucial. Germination and flowering time interact to determine patterns of growth, flowering and seed set. Thus, an integrated life-cycle model that includes these events and their interactions is necessary for predicting under natural conditions each phenological transition, the overall life cycle, and the persistence of effects of environmental perturbations. Using the abundant genetic information on the molecular-genetic basis of flowering and germination in Arabidopsis thaliana, this project will develop integrated life-history models to predict genotype-specific performance across a geographic range with different climatic scenarios. These predictions will be tested using unique genetic material of different combinations of germination and flowering alleles in seasonally contrasting field sites. This work directly pertains to predicting plant responses to climate change. It aims to predict germination timing and synchrony under various climatic conditions, which is of direct interest in agricultural settings. The model will also predict how changes in germination timing affect reproductive timing and yield, which is important for predicting responses of crop species as well as the weeds that grow with them. Finally, it uses genotypes containing candidate genetic loci for dormancy manipulations to assess how those genes will respond to altered climates.