Effect of Light and Temperature Cycles and Climate Change on Adaptation in Lizards

光和温度循环和气候变化对蜥蜴适应的影响最近，世界许多地区春夏季最高日温度的气候变化似乎正在推动许多蜥蜴物种在当地的种群灭绝。侧斑蜥蜴是一种具有详细的自然产卵期遗传信息的物种，我们将对侧斑蜥蜴的繁殖时间等关键生殖参数进行实地研究。在加州过去二十年中观测到的最高春季日温度变化2°C的情况下，繁殖时间预计会迅速变化。研究人员希望在繁殖时间上找到强烈的自然选择。在实验室实验中，研究人员将研究气候变暖对繁殖时间“可塑性变化”的影响，以确定适应气候变暖的生理极限。例如，气候变暖预计会导致更早的繁殖，但由于冬季温暖，产卵日期的这种可塑性变化可能矛盾地产生对更晚产卵日期的强烈选择，因为夏季幼鱼生长的最佳时期并没有改变。最后，一个已经被用来准确预测全球蜥蜴灭绝的理论模型将被用来预测美国和墨西哥侧斑蜥蜴种群灭绝的地点。这些预测将通过实地调查和小气候测量得到验证。这项研究将提供物种如何适应快速气候变化的关键信息，如果不可能适应，它将估计灭绝的可能性。蜥蜴是一个有价值的模型，因为它有完善的方法来研究自然选择、遗传学和热生理学。了解气候对单一物种生态学的影响（例如，人口、繁殖）是了解气候对生态系统功能影响的第一步。这些问题对于预测气候对包括人类农业系统在内的任何生态系统功能的影响至关重要。

Barry Sinervo IOS 1022031 Effect of Light and Temperature Cycles and Climate Change on Adaptation in LizardsRecent climate changes in maximum daily temperatures during spring and summer in many parts of the world appear to be driving local population extinctions of many lizard species. Field studies of key reproductive parameters such as breeding time will be conducted on the side-blotched lizard, a species with detailed information on genetics of lay date in nature. Breeding time is expected to change rapidly under the observed 2°C shift in maximum daily spring temperatures observed during the past two decades in California. The researchers expect to find strong natural selection on breeding time. In laboratory experiments, the researchers will study climate-warming effects on "plastic changes" in breeding time to determine physiological limits of acclimation to climate warming. For example, climate warming is expected to induce earlier breeding but this plastic shift in lay date, due to milder winters, may paradoxically generate strong selection for later lay dates because the optimal period for summer juvenile growth has not changed. Finally, a theoretical model that has been used to accurately predict worldwide extinctions of lizards will be used to predict locations of ongoing population extinctions of side-blotch lizards across the US and Mexico. The predictions will be verified with ground-truth surveys and measurements of microclimate. This study will supply critical information on how species adapt to rapid climate change and if adaptation is not possible, it will estimate extinction likelihood. Lizard species are a valuable model because of well-developed methods for studying natural selection, genetics and thermal physiology. Understanding climate effects on ecology of single species (e.g., demography, reproduction) is a first step in understanding climate impacts on ecosystem functioning. These issues are vital for predicting climate impacts on any ecosystem functioning, human agricultural systems included.