Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate-forced Extinction Risks for Lizards, Amphibians, Fishes, and Plants

合作研究：量化气候迫使蜥蜴、两栖动物、鱼类和植物灭绝的风险

• 批准号: 1241848
• 负责人: Barry Sinervo
• 金额: $ 88.34万
• 依托单位: University of California-Santa Cruz
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-03-01 至 2018-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1241848&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Quantifying; Climate; forced

Climate change due to increases in anthropogenic carbon is altering global patterns of temperature and rainfall. These environmental changes are transforming plant communities, which in turn may be causing local extinctions of many vertebrate species. For example, when faced with prolonged heat waves and droughts, trees may be unable to draw sufficient water from the soil and drop most of their leaves. Diminished leaf cover allows more sunlight to reach the ground, amplifying local warming trends and increasing heat and water stress for plants themselves and for many vertebrate species. The goal of this award is to evaluate how climate-driven changes to plant communities are increasing extinction rates for certain "cold-blooded" vertebrate species (i.e., lizards, frogs). This study hypothesizes that many such vertebrate species are going extinct in part because rising temperatures are directly stressful to them, and in part because rising temperatures also damage plant communities, upon which animals rely for food, water, and shelter. Intensive studies will be made at specific localities on five continents where targeted animal species have recently gone extinct. At these sites, researchers with expertise in plant and animal physiology and ecology will collaborate to quantify the extent to which recent droughts and warm-spells have altered plant communities, which in turn have increased heat and water stress on animals. These local studies will then be linked (via remote sensing methods and online databases), to create a worldwide data set that integrate information on temperature, rainfall, plant die-offs, and the physiological limits of targeted animals to heat and water stress. Such data will enable scientists to predict and test, with unprecedented accuracy across regions and continents, how extinction rates among targeted vertebrate species relate to current and expected changes in rainfall, temperature, and plant communities.Previous models of climate-warming impacts have focused on plants or animals, but not both. For example, many climate change scientists study animal systems in isolation of plant systems, thus emphasizing only the role of changing climate per se on animal taxa (e.g., rising temperatures limit lizards from foraging in direct sunlight). This project differs by a) modeling how climate-driven changes to plant communities increase warm spells and drought conditions, and b) showing how changes to plant communities alters the environment available used by the targeted animals species and push their physiological limits, speeding their extinction rates. This model will be grounded by field studies that test for non-climate related causes of animal extinctions; this will enable scientists to determine the factors that explain the ever increasing extinction rates among targeted animals. New web-based products will be developed that use remote sensing technology to predict current and future degradations in ecosystems across the globe. A project of this scope requires collaboration among scientists with expertise in climatology, physiology, biodiversity, and remote sensing. An international team from 20 countries will work together on this project; a new generation of postdoctoral research fellows and hundreds of graduate students will be trained in the latest physiological and mathematical methods in climate change studies.

人为碳增加导致的气候变化正在改变全球温度和降雨模式。这些环境变化正在改变植物群落，进而可能导致许多脊椎动物物种的局部灭绝。例如，当面临长期的热浪和干旱时，树木可能无法从土壤中吸取足够的水分并掉落大部分叶子。叶子覆盖面积的减少使得更多的阳光能够到达地面，从而放大了局部变暖的趋势，并增加了植物本身和许多脊椎动物物种的热量和水分压力。该奖项的目的是评估气候驱动的植物群落变化如何增加某些“冷血”脊椎动物（即蜥蜴、青蛙）的灭绝率。这项研究假设许多此类脊椎动物物种正在灭绝，部分原因是气温上升对它们造成直接压力，部分原因是气温上升也损害了动物赖以获取食物、水和住所的植物群落。将在五大洲目标动物物种最近灭绝的特定地点进行深入研究。在这些地点，具有植物和动物生理学和生态学专业知识的研究人员将合作，量化最近的干旱和暖期对植物群落的改变程度，从而增加动物的热和水压力。然后，这些本地研究将被联系起来（通过遥感方法和在线数据库），创建一个全球数据集，整合有关温度、降雨、植物死亡以及目标动物对热和水压力的生理限制的信息。这些数据将使科学家能够以前所未有的准确性在各地区和各大洲预测和测试目标脊椎动物物种的灭绝率与当前和预期的降雨量、温度和植物群落的变化之间的关系。以前的气候变暖影响模型主要关注植物或动物，但不是同时关注两者。例如，许多气候变化科学家独立于植物系统来研究动物系统，因此只强调气候变化本身对动物类群的作用（例如，气温上升限制蜥蜴在阳光直射下觅食）。该项目的不同之处在于：a）模拟气候驱动的植物群落变化如何增加温暖期和干旱条件；b）展示植物群落的变化如何改变目标动物物种使用的环境，并突破其生理极限，加速其灭绝速度。该模型将以实地研究为基础，测试动物灭绝的非气候相关原因；这将使科学家能够确定解释目标动物灭绝率不断增加的因素。将开发新的基于网络的产品，利用遥感技术来预测全球生态系统当前和未来的退化。这一范围的项目需要具有气候学、生理学、生物多样性和遥感专业知识的科学家之间的合作。来自20个国家的国际团队将共同致力于该项目；新一代博士后研究员和数百名研究生将接受气候变化研究最新生理和数学方法的培训。

项目成果

Digest: Predicting the future by learning from the past in lizards’ thermal traits*

摘要：通过学习蜥蜴过去的热特性来预测未来*

• DOI: 10.1111/evo.14333
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Evolution
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Tsai, Hsiang‐Yu

Effects of Caudal Autotomy on the Locomotor Performance of Micrablepharus Atticolus (Squamata, Gymnophthalmidae)

尾部自切术对 Micrablepharus Atticolus（有鳞目，裸眼科）运动性能的影响

• DOI: 10.3390/d13110562
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Diversity
• 作者: Silva, Naiane Arantes;Caetano, Gabriel Henrique;Campelo, Pedro Henrique;Cavalcante, Vitor Hugo;Godinho, Leandro Braga;Miles, Donald Bailey;Paulino, Henrique Monteiro;da Silva, Júlio Miguel;de Souza, Bruno Araújo;da Silva, Hosmano Batista
• 通讯作者: da Silva, Hosmano Batista

Intraspecific diversity alters the relationship between climate change and parasitism in a polymorphic ectotherm

种内多样性改变了多态变温动物中气候变化与寄生之间的关系

• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16018
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Global Change Biology
• 影响因子: 11.6
• 作者: Wu, Qiang;Miles, Donald B.;Richard, Murielle;Rutschmann, Alexis;Clobert, Jean
• 通讯作者: Clobert, Jean

Micro and macroclimatic constraints on the activity of a vulnerable tortoise: A mechanistic approach under a thermal niche view

对脆弱陆龟活动的微观和宏观气候限制：热生态位视角下的机械方法

• DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.14148
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Functional Ecology
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Lara‐Reséndiz, Rafael A.;Miles, Donald B.;Rosen, Philip C.;Sinervo, Barry
• 通讯作者: Sinervo, Barry

Habitat thermal quality for Gopherus evgoodei in tropical deciduous forest and consequences of habitat modification by buffelgrass

热带落叶林地鼠栖息地热质量及水牛草改变栖息地的后果

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtherbio.2022.103192
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Journal of Thermal Biology
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Lara-Reséndiz, Rafael A.;Rosen, Philip C.;Sinervo, Barry;Miles, Donald B.;Méndez-de La Cruz, Fausto R.
• 通讯作者: Méndez-de La Cruz, Fausto R.