The Fluid Dynamics of Respiratory Disease Transmission

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The emergence and explosive spread of virulent viral (e.g. H1N1, SARS) and bacterial (e.g. Tuberculosis) infections is a problem of global interest with enormous human and economic consequences. Population and network disease models yield insight into, and guide policy aimed at mitigating, the spread of these public health threats. In such models, the central notion of contact greatly influences the disease epidemic outcomes, but its definition remains nebulous. This project clarifies the notion of contact through developing our understanding of the fluid dynamics of respiratory disease transmission. A hierarchy of mathematical models of increasing complexity are combined with analogue laboratory experiments to elucidate several fluid dynamics problems bearing directly on contact and disease spread. Specifically, this project elucidates the factors influencing the generation and transport of droplet-borne pathogens inside the respiratory tract, and their subsequent dispersal through the air via coughing, sneezing or normal breathing. Such models yield valuable insight into the range and efficacy of pathogen transport via exhalation and so guide policy on the management of infected patients in confined environments such as hospitals and airplanes.This research highlights the key role played by fluid dynamics in disease transmission, and suggests novel approaches to open questions in the classical mathematical modeling of disease spread. One principal goal is to refine the quantification of contact as input for epidemiological models, thus improving their predictive accuracy. The research will also raise the bar on the mathematical modeling of airborne transmission, by drawing on established mathematical models of multiphase, multiscale interfacial flows to elucidate the factors influencing the likelihood of infection via bacteria- or virus-laden airborne droplets. The research can thus inform the modeling of contact in respiratory diseases in confined environments, and so guide policy for disease transmission in hospitals and airplanes. Finally, the project is transformative, bringing the mathematical framework of modern fluid dynamics to a new class of important biomedical problems. Through introducing these problems to the fluid dynamics community, as resides traditionally in applied mathematics, engineering and physics departments, it initiates an exciting branch of interdisciplinary science.